Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two desperate teams trying to keep their slim playoff hopes alive will square off in Minnesota on Sunday, with the Vikings (7-6) hosting the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) as small home favorites.

The Colts blew an opportunity to take the lead in the AFC South last week with a 22-17 home loss to the Houston Texans as 6.5-point favorites, while the Vikings remain alive in the NFC after a 25-16 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as three-point chalk.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as four-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.6-17.6 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis laid an egg last Sunday in getting swept by Houston, as quarterback Andrew Luck was picked off twice and fumbled once. But the Colts have proved they can be successful on the road with a three-game winning streak away from home, including a 31-26 victory against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field as seven-point underdogs back in Week 9.

Luck and the Indy offense still figure to have an edge over Minnesota if the quarterback can avoid turnovers and lead a few touchdown drives.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings have gone 7-3 straight up and an incredible 10-0 against the spread in their last 10 games versus AFC opponents. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this year against the other AFC South teams they have played so far.

Defensively, Minnesota is still a good team and can put pressure on Luck and likely force him into committing some more turnovers. The Vikings have also averaged 27 points in their previous three matchups versus AFC South opponents and should have no problem covering if they can reach that number.

Smart pick

The Colts have won the past four meetings with Minnesota SU, going 3-1 ATS on the NFL point spreads in those games. Indy is also an impressive 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five following a loss and has the better quarterback in Luck over Sam Bradford in the battle of two former No. 1 overall picks.

While the Vikings have the better defense, time is running out for running back Adrian Peterson to come back this year, and his absence will cost them again.

Betting trends

The Colts are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Vikings.

The Vikings are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.

The Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after a loss.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.