New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (11-2) can clinch the AFC East for the eighth straight year—along with a first-round bye in the playoffs—with a win over the Denver Broncos (8-5) on Sunday as small road favorites. The Patriots saw their postseason run end a year ago in Denver, and they could hurt the playoff chances of the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos with a victory.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.8-19.6, Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

It may sound like a broken record, but a motivated Tom Brady is nearly unbeatable. The future Hall of Famer proved that again Monday night when New England defeated the Baltimore Ravens 30-23 and covered the spread as a six-point home favorite.

Brady equaled a season high with 406 passing yards and remains in the NFL MVP conversation despite missing the first four games of the regular season due to suspension. In fact, Brady might even be considered the favorite, and another win here would help his case as the Patriots go for the division crown.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos beat New England twice last year at home, improving to 6-1 straight up and against the spread in the past seven meetings at Mile High. Defensively, Denver knows that pressuring Brady is the best way to stop him, which linebacker Von Miller proved in last year's AFC Championship Game.

This team has also thrived as a small underdog recently, going 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 games when the opponent is favored by three points or fewer. The Patriots may move past that number before kickoff, but the trends favor the other side.

Smart pick

New England has yet to lose away from home this year, going a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The lone game the Patriots did not cover on the road came against the New York Jets in a tough divisional matchup three weeks ago.

While the Broncos have given Brady fits at home over the years, he should be extra motivated to clinch in this spot, so take New England to win by at least a touchdown and cover the small number.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of the Patriots' last eight games against the Broncos.

The Patriots are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.