Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two teams that were expected to battle for the AFC North crown again in 2016 will meet in Cincinnati on Sunday when the Bengals (5-7-1) host the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) as small home underdogs. Cincinnati is the reigning AFC North champion but has been disappointing this year, while Pittsburgh rides a four-game winning streak into Paul Brown Stadium.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.9-22.5 Bengals (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers hold a mental edge over the Bengals after defeating them in last year's playoffs for their fifth win in six meetings. Pittsburgh's 18-16 win at Cincinnati saw quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turn in a gutsy performance and wide receiver Antonio Brown get hammered by Vontaze Burfict, which led to a suspension to start this season.

The Steelers followed that up with a 24-16 victory against the Bengals as three-point home favorites in Week 2, improving to 6-1 straight up in the past seven meetings and 15-5-1 against the spread in the last 21, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati is a dangerous spoiler team with virtually no shot at the postseason and proved to have a lot of fight left in avoiding a loss to the winless Cleveland Browns last week. The Bengals have also thrived in the role of home dogs lately, going 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their previous six games in that scenario.

In addition, they have played well at the end of the season recently with a 6-1-1 ATS mark in their last eight Week 15 games. Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green is hoping to practice this week as well after suffering a hamstring tear, potentially giving the team its best weapon back.

Smart pick

Pittsburgh is playing as well as any team in the NFL at the moment and has beaten a couple of quality opponents the past two weeks in the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills. December is when the Steelers turn it on too, going a remarkable 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS at online betting sites in their last 13 games during the month. With that in mind, look for Pittsburgh to take care of business here and beat Cincinnati for the seventh time in eight games.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 15.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.