NFL Picks Week 15: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

The clock is ticking on the 2016 NFL regular season, with playoff tensions dominating the conversation as the league heads into its final three weeks of play. 

There's still plenty left to determine when it comes to the postseason. The Dallas Cowboys are the only team to clinch a playoff spot, though several others are on the cusp heading into Week 15, per FiveThirtyEight. 

While there are still likely to be a few surprises and plot twists as the regular season comes to a close, just about every team is a known commodity at this point. They've been through ups and downs, homestands and road slogs, and heated battles against division rivals.

For bettors, it doesn't necessarily mean making picks will be any easier this week, but there is plenty of information to go on at this point. 

Here's a quick guide to the action in Week 15, including matchup spreads, over-unders and expert predictions from around the web. Expert picks are straight-up, not against the spread.

Matchup (spread)	Over-Under	Stephen White, SB Nation	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports	Nathan Jahnke, Pro Football Focus	FiveThirtyEight Projections
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-16)	38.5	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks 84%
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets	37.5	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins 51%
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6)	39	Texans	Texans	Jaguars	Texans 83%
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)	42	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs 85%
Green Bay Packers (-6) at Chicago Bears	40	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers 69%
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)	45.5	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings 68%
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4)	41	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants 53%
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10)	41	Browns	Bills	Bills	Bills 88%
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6)	41	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens 66%
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals	44	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers 53%
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)	50.5	Cardinals	Cardinals	Saints	Cardinals 70%
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-14)	51	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons 90%
Oakland Raiders (-3) at San Diego Chargers	49.5	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders 59%
New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos	43.5	Broncos	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots 54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	46.5	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys 72%
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-6.5)	51	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins 58%

The Green Bay Packers are somehow just a touchdown (not even with the extra point included) favorite over the Chicago Bears.

The oddsmakers are likely concerned about the possibility of extremely cold conditions tamping down the offenses in Chicago and a nagging calf injury for Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers are playing well and should still be able to win by at least a touchdown.

The Packers are coming off a resounding 38-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. Rodgers torched the Seahawks secondary—clearly missing injured safety Earl Thomas—throwing for 245 yards and three scores.

Rodgers did pick up a calf injury in this game. Head coach Mike McCarthy said the star quarterback will be limited in practice this week, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. However, this doesn't mean anyone should expect the ultra-competitive Rodgers to take things any easier than he has to in prepping for this important contest.

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

"Game plan-wise, his comments were just, 'Don't hold anything back,'" McCarthy said Wednesday, according to Demovsky. “So we're approaching this game no different than we did last week."

The rudderless Bears kept things close with the Detroit Lions in Week 14 but still fell 20-17. They've been held to 20 points or fewer in six of their last eight games. The Packers defense has struggled at times this season, but it managed to contain a Seahawks offense featuring Russell Wilson and a returning-to-form Thomas Rawls at running back.

The Packers are currently out of the playoff picture and may need to win out to reach the postseason. They are one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the sixth seed, but are jockeying for position with the Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. The Lions have a two-game lead in the NFC North over the Packers, but they aren't flinching as they close out the season.

The Bears have little more to play for than pride, so expect a fired up Rodgers to lead his side to a comfortable win on the road. 

Injuries have been the story of the season for the San Diego Chargers. They lost key cogs such as receiver Keenan Allen, running back Danny Woodhead and cornerback Jason Verrett (among others) early in the season. The team managed to stay competitive through the midpoint of the season thanks to strong play from Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon on offense and rookie Joey Bosa on defense. 

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

However, the injuries keep mounting for the Bolts, who have lost three of their last four games and run into the Oakland Raiders in Week 15. 

Starting cornerback Brandon Flowers is on injured reserve after suffering his second concussion of the season Nov. 13 against the Miami Dolphins, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The touchdown-happy Gordon is expected to miss Sunday's tilt against the Raiders according to a source for ESPN's Adam Schefter (per ESPN.com).

Kenneth Farrow and Ronnie Hillman will take up Gordon's mantle in the backfield, but it's unlikely they can match Gordon's production. Combine what expects to be a lackluster running game with Rivers' recent uptick in turnovers (10 interceptions, two fumbles lost in his last four games), and the Chargers offense should stagnate on Sunday.

The Raiders are three-point favorites, likely owing to their listless display in a 21-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday in Week 14. 

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Derek Carr has been brilliant for Oakland for much of this season, but frigid conditions and a troublesome pinky injury saw him throw for just 117 yards on 41 pass attempts against the Chiefs. Despite the horrid performance, the Raiders were still in the game late.

With a few extra days of rest coming off the Thursday game, James Arcellana of Cover32 believes Carr will have a much better day in sunny San Diego:

"

After his worst game of the 2016 season and possibly the worst game of his career, Derek Carr will bounce back big, pinky be dammed [sic]. Carr will make sure his name stays in the mix for league MVP by having a big game against the Chargers going for over 300 yards and throwing at least two touchdowns as this offense awakens from its slumber.

"

If the Raiders defense, led by the outstanding Khalil Mack, can contain Rivers, the silver and black should be well on their way to winning by more than a field goal.

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

The Buccaneers are seven-point underdogs against the Cowboys on Sunday, but they could make this a close game thanks to a revamped defense. 

Deadspin's Dom Cosentino detailed the Bucs' defensive revival, noting turnovers and a strong pass rush are fueling the turnaround: 

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What the Bucs have started doing is creating turnovers. They’re a plus-6 in turnover differential on the season, but they were minus-9 after their 1-3 start. They’re now tied for the league lead with 25 takeaways, but 23 of those have come in the last nine games, including 14 during their current five-game winning streak, when they haven’t had a game with fewer than two. It’s not all the luck of recovering fumbles, either—10 of the Bucs’ 14 takeaways during their winning streak have been interceptions, with seven coming in the last three games against Wilson, Rivers, and Brees.

What the Bucs have done especially well is bring pressure with their front four, which has had the effect of enabling their coverage, as it often does. (See also: the Giants.) Per Pro Football Focus, Robert Ayers—now age 31—ranks fourth in the league among 4-3 defensive ends in pass-rush productivity, a metric that adds up sacks, hits, and hurries (with greater weight given to sacks) per pass-rushing snap. And veteran mainstay Gerald McCoy’s PRP ranks sixth among 4-3 defensive tackles.

"

The 11-2 Cowboys owe a great deal of their success this season to the excellent play of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The two have formed a potent combo in the backfield, with Elliott leading the league in rushing at 1,392 yards and Prescott playing wise beyond his years.

However, the Bucs have an opportunity to gum up the works with Prescott struggling recently. The 23-year-old has thrown for less than 200 yards in each of his last three games. In a 10-7 loss to the New York Giants in Week 14, he completed less than 50 percent of his passes for only the second time this season and threw two interceptions, doubling his season total. 

The Cowboys have still proved eminently capable of winning even when Prescott plays like a wide-eyed rookie instead of a savvy veteran, and they could still do so on Sunday if he has a poor game. However, Tampa Bay's defense will give the team a shot and at the very least keep the game close.

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, Dec. 15 at 9 a.m. ET.