Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons aren't known as road warriors, but they are 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread over their last 11 trips to the West Coast. The Falcons hope for more success out West when they travel to Los Angeles to play those re-transplanted but same old Rams on Sunday.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.8-17.8 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta had won three of four but came up one crazy play short in a 29-28 loss to Kansas City last week. The Falcons grabbed an early 7-0 lead on the Chiefs but then gave up 27 of the game's next 36 points to fall down by 11 after three quarters. Atlanta then scored twice to take a one-point lead, but Matt Ryan threw a pick on a two-point conversion, and Eric Berry took it back 100 yards to give Kansas City the lead again.

The Falcons then allowed the Chiefs to run the last four-and-a-half minutes off the clock.

On the day, Atlanta racked up 32 first downs, compared to Kansas City's 17, and led time of possession by a 32/28 margin. But the Falcons gave up touchdowns on a fake punt and a pick-six and failed on an earlier two-point conversion.

Two weeks ago Atlanta beat up on Arizona 38-19.

At 7-5 overall, the Falcons are tied for first place in the NFC South with Tampa Bay, and they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs thanks to the better divisional record.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Los Angeles is a hard case to make at the moment. The Rams actually started 3-1 this season; since then they've lost seven of eight.

Last week Los Angeles fell at New England 26-10. The Rams trailed the Patriots at the half 17-0 but won the second half 10-9, although they didn't reach the end zone until a little more than a minute remained in the game.

Rookie quarterback Jared Goff had one of those days rookies will have against New England, but two weeks ago he showed signs of what could come, throwing three touchdown passes (against one pick) in a loss to New Orleans.

Smart pick

Atlanta is already 2-of-2 on covers on the West Coast this year, with a win at Oakland and a tough loss at Seattle. And playing on the road means the spread is a little friendlier toward the Falcons. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has covered one spread in the last eight weeks and should be faded until further notice.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in the Falcons' last six games against the Rams.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Rams' last 16 games as an underdog.

The Falcons are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as favorite.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.