Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Detroit recently beat rival Chicago six times in a row, but the Bears upset the Lions back in October and are 3-1 against the spread over the last four meetings. Division-leading Detroit hopes to return the favor when it hosts Chicago on Sunday at Ford Field.

Point spread: The Lions opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.1-16.2 Lions (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears just broke a three-game losing streak with a 26-6 win over San Francisco last week. Chicago spotted the 49ers the first six points on a sloppy day at Soldier Field, then scored the last 26 points of the game for its third victory of the season.

For the day the Bears outgained San Francisco 326-147, with help from rookie running back Jordan Howard, who rushed 32 times for 117 yards and three touchdowns. He now has five 100-yard rushing performances in his last nine games. Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Barkley picked up his first NFL win as a starter, throwing for 192 yards on just 18 attempts, with zero interceptions.

Two weeks ago Barkley nearly brought the Bears back from a 27-7 deficit against Tennessee. He threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to get Chicago within 27-21, then drove the Bears to the Titans 7-yard line in the final minute. But wide receiver Josh Bellamy dropped a sure touchdown pass on first down, and three incompletions later it was over.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Coach Jim Caldwell's team owns a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS, and seven wins/covers over its last eight games, after upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last week 28-13. Detroit scored the first 10 points of the game, let the Saints pull within 19-13 early in the fourth quarter, then scored the last nine points of the game to secure the outright victory as a six-point underdog.

The Lions outgained New Orleans 422-369 and won time of possession by a 37/23 split. Also, the Detroit defense pulled a tough trick, holding Drew Brees without a single touchdown pass all day while picking him off three times.

Prior to last week, the Lions had rallied from behind to beat, in succession, Minnesota, Jacksonville, then the Vikings again. At 8-4 on the season, Detroit now leads the NFC North by two games over Minnesota and Green Bay.

Smart pick

The Lions won surprisingly easily last week, but their penchant this season is for close games, and they've been pegged as one of the NFL's biggest overachievers this season at PredictionMachine.com. Chicago, meanwhile, is 2-0 ATS with Barkley at quarterback and 3-0 ATS over its last three games. Throw the records out for this rivalry, and bet the Bears, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Bears are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Lions.

The total has gone under in three of the Bears' last four games against the Lions.

The Lions are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.