Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread over their last five meetings with the Buffalo Bills. In fact, the Bills haven't beaten the Steelers this century. AFC playoff contenders will clash when Ben Roethlisberger and Co. visit Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.9-22.3, Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh rides a three-game winning streak into Buffalo following last week's 24-14 victory over the New York Giants. The Steelers used a safety and a field goal to take a 5-0 first-quarter lead, pushed that to 14-0 at the half and held from there, covering as six-point favorites.

On the afternoon, Pittsburgh outgained New York 389-234, outrushed the Giants 117-56 and owned a 34:08-25:52 advantage in time of possession. The Steelers have now outgained each of their last six opponents and eight of their last nine.

After missing the first three games of the season and then hitting the 100-yard mark rushing just once through his first six games, Le'Veon Bell has now done it three games in a row. Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh won and covered all three of those games.

At 7-5, the Steelers are tied for first place in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens, who own the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is also tied with the Miami Dolphins and one game behind the Denver Broncos in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot, so the margin for error is slim.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills will try to bounce back after blowing a big lead last week and losing to the Oakland Raiders 38-24. Buffalo led the Raiders 10-9 at the half and scored two quick touchdowns out of the locker room to go up 24-9, but it gave up the last 29 points of the game.

On the day, the Bills outrushed Oakland 212-139, as LeSean McCoy hit the century mark for the second week in a row. But once momentum began to swing toward the Raiders in the third quarter, Buffalo just couldn't stop it.

Prior to last week, though, the Bills had won two games in a row—over the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars—to go above .500. Now at 6-6, Buffalo won't catch the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and it trails the Broncos by two games in the wild-card race.

Smart pick

The Steelers are hot with Bell back in business, while the Bills remain an enigma. However, Buffalo is 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog. And Pittsburgh almost seems like a sucker bet with the spread as low as it is. The smart bet here on the Vegas lines is the Bills.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bills.

The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.

The total has gone over in nine of the Bills' last 11 games after a loss.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.