Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tennessee Titans will try to maintain a share of first place in the AFC South on Sunday when they welcome the Denver Broncos to Nissan Stadium.

The 6-6 Titans enjoyed a Week 13 bye after claiming a 27-21 win over the Chicago Bears as 6.5-point favorites the previous week, and they are undefeated straight up and against the spread in two straight at home.

The 8-4 Broncos moved back into an AFC wild-card position with a 20-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3.5-point chalk last weekend, but they have failed to record consecutive SU and ATS wins since Week 8.

Point spread: The Titans opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.5-18.7 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos briefly fell out of wild-card position with a 30-27 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago. However, Denver demonstrated resilience by bouncing back in Jacksonville, and it is unbeaten in its last two on the road and 4-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.

Denver has also been a strong bet in games immediately following a win, going 17-5 SU in its past 22. The Broncos are desperate for a win this weekend ahead of crucial season-ending dates with New England, Kansas City and Oakland.

The Titans have been a risky bet when pegged as slim favorites on home turf, going 2-4 SU and ATS when favored by two or fewer points, falling by double-digit margins in each of those four outright losses.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans have piled up points during their current 3-1 SU run at Nissan Stadium, averaging 33.5 points per game. Tennessee has also covered in two straight at home, winning by an average margin of 18 points.

Tennessee's ground game has emerged as one of the NFL's best. Titans rushers have averaged 136 yards per game over their past three games, and they face a Broncos rush defense that has surrendered over 120 yards in three of five.

Titans pivot Marcus Mariota has also emerged as a legitimate offensive threat. Mariota has thrown 21 touchdown passes over his past eight games, including a four-score performance in Tennessee's last home contest—a stunning 47-25 win over Green Bay.

Smart pick

The Broncos are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their past five games against Tennessee, but they have alternated between wins and losses in their past five games overall. Tennessee's blossoming offense has forced the point total over in eight of nine, and it has brought the Titans within striking distance of a divisional title.

Look for the Tennessee offense to outpace the Broncos and power the Titans to a SU and ATS win on the NFL lines this weekend.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Titans.

The total has gone over in eight of the Broncos' last nine games against the Titans.

The Titans are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games against the AFC West.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.