NFL Predictions Week 14: Upset Picks and Projections

The underdogs make a comeback in Week 14.

Most didn't make any noise in Week 13 based on the odds out of Las Vegas. A bye-free week and strong upset scenarios has this slate looking much better for those who like to live life on the edge.

Whether it is divisional contests or miserable road teams once again away from home, bettors will find it rather simple to get behind some of the week's notable underdogs.

After a look at the whole slate, let's zoom in on some of the week's best upset picks.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Oakland at Kansas City (TNF)	KC -3.5	47	OAK 28-27
Pittsburgh at Buffalo	PIT -1.5	47	PIT 27-17
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -4.5	46	IND 24-20
Washington at Philadelphia	WAS -1	47	WAS 26-23
Denver at Tennessee	TEN -1.5	43.5	DEN 23-20
Arizona at Miami	MIA -2.5	43.5	MIA 20-17
Minnesota at Jacksonville	MIN -3	39.5	JAC 20-13
San Diego at Carolina	CAR -3	48	CAR 24-20
Cincinnati at Cleveland	CIN -4	43.5	CIN 28-17
Chicago at Detroit	DET -7.5	43.5	CHI 27-24
N.Y. Jets at San Francisco	SF -1	44	NYJ 17-10
Seattle at Green Bay	SEA -2.5	46.5	GB 23-20
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	E	51.5	TB 30-27
Atlanta at L.A. Rams	ATL -4.5	45	ATL 27-17
Dallas at N.Y. Giants	DAL -2.5	47.5	DAL 23-20
Baltimore at New England (MNF)	NE -9	45	NE 24-14

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3.5)

Bettors might have an aversion to Thursday Night Football because of how unpredictable the games can be on a short week.

This AFC West clash, though, is too hard to ignore. Bettors will immediately recall the Kansas City Chiefs smacked around the Oakland Raiders 26-10 in Week 6.

There, the Chiefs rushed for 183 total yards and three scores and ruled time of possession at 36 minutes and 45 seconds, while the Raiders didn't have starting back Latavius Murray.

Bettors can bank on the Week 14 matchup playing out differently. Kansas City is 9-3 and has won two in a row, but it won those two games by a total of four points. Oakland sits right behind the Dallas Cowboys as the hottest team in the league at 10-2 and hasn't lost since the Week 6 game against these Chiefs.

Though it sounds almost cliche, these Raiders have discovered the winning formula. Much of the credit goes to Derek Carr, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:

Carr has come full circle this season with 24 touchdowns to five picks, and Murray has been in top form when healthy, sitting on 553 yards and 11 touchdowns. A Khalil Mack-led defense has also hit its stride.

On a short week, the exhausted Chiefs won't have enough gas to stop the Raiders this time. Look for the ball-control approach to favor the visitors this time around as the Raiders pull ahead for good in the division.

Prediction: Raiders 28-27

Chicago at Detroit (-7.5)

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A bettor's gut reaction might be to stray away from the Chicago Bears and move on to juicer matchups.

That would be a major mistake this week.

Yes, the Bears only have three wins on the season—but one of those came against these Detroit Lions.

Back in Week 4, Brian Hoyer threw two touchdown passes and the Bears held Matthew Stafford without a score in a 17-14 upset. Detroit's defense didn't have an answer for Jordan Howard, who rushed for 111 yards.

This week could be much of the same. The Lions have won four games in a row, and Stafford has 21 touchdowns to five interceptions, yet divisional encounters are always tricky affairs against familiar opponents.

The kicker here? Chicago looks better now than the Week 4 upset. Matt Barkley has stepped in admirably at quarterback and threw for 316 yards with three scores and two picks in Week 12 before managing a snowy game well in a Week 13 win. Howard now has five 100-yard games and five scores on the year since getting starter usage beginning in Week 4.

This is a major trap game for the Lions and a point of pride for the Bears after an injury-riddled season. A Detroit defense that had no answers for Howard in the first matchup and doesn't seem any closer to stopping a strong passing attack will again come up short. The team with nothing to lose can take bigger risks against a known opponent to pull off one of the week's top upsets.

Prediction: Bears 27-24

Seattle (-2.5) at Green Bay

Bettors know what to do here.

A review of the Seattle Seahawks on the road this year in notable gaffes: a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, a tie with the Arizona Cardinals, a loss to the New Orleans Saints and a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Bettors can clamor all they want about Seattle's Week 13, 40-7 dismissal of the Carolina Panthers. It came at home—the week prior, the Seahawks traveled and took on the Buccaneers and scored all of five points.

The Seahawks can't afford such hiccups against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. In fact, the Packers look like a team heating up for a postseason run, having just taken down the Houston Texans in snowy conditions.

"Well, that was a good bad-weather win. A lot of fun to play in that type of atmosphere in Lambeau Field," head coach Mike McCarthy said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com).

There, snow or not, Aaron Rodgers tossed a pair of touchdowns, and the ground game rushed for 109 yards and a score on a 4.2 per-carry average.

The Seahawks have looked great at times this year. Running back Thomas Rawls seems healthy, yet Russell Wilson has battled injuries, and it shows with his 12 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Simply put, bettors just can't trust the Seahawks away from home this year. Green Bay has everything to lose while chasing Detroit in the NFC North and the backing of a supportive playoff atmosphere, not to mention the better ability to brave a Green Bay winter and pull out a win.

Prediction: Packers 23-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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