Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Despite a rough start to the season, the Indianapolis Colts (6-6) can move ahead of the Houston Texans (6-6) in the race for the AFC South title with a victory in their second meeting Sunday. The Colts lost the first meeting 26-23 in overtime as three-point road underdogs after blowing a late 14-point lead, and they are listed as solid home favorites this time around.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.4-14.1 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler has not had a lot of great moments in his first season with the team since signing a four-year deal worth $72 million in the offseason.

But Osweiler's best performance as a Texan came in the first meeting when he rallied his team back from a 23-9 deficit with two touchdown passes in the final 2:37 of regulation. Osweiler finished with 269 passing yards and outplayed Indy's Andrew Luck, something he will try to do again on the road in the second meeting.

Houston is coming off a 21-13 road loss to the Green Bay Packers last week and has gone 5-2 straight up in its last seven games off a setback.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts bounced back big time from a 28-7 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thanksgiving, routing the New York Jets 41-10 as 1.5-point road underdogs in the Week 13 Monday night matchup.

The return of Luck from a concussion was obviously the key, as he completed 22 of 28 passes for 278 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. When healthy, Luck remains one of the top signal-callers in the NFL, and he undoubtedly has more talent than his counterpart Osweiler.

Indianapolis has now won three of four SU and against the spread overall, and the team is also 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games as a home favorite heading into this showdown.

Smart pick

The Colts have won 13 of the past 14 home meetings with the Texans and will be out for revenge after their disappointing loss in the first game between the teams back in Week 6. After getting off to a 1-3 start SU and ATS, Indy has won five of eight (5-2-1 ATS) to get back into the division race.

The victory at New York was huge for the team's confidence and will carry through here in a game that matters more than any other the rest of the year. Look for the Colts to come through with another home win and cover at online sports betting sites.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in the Texans' last seven games on the road against the Colts.

The Colts are 0-3 ATS in their last three games in Week 14.

The Colts are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games as home favorites.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.