Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) visit the Green Bay Packers (6-6) on Sunday as small road favorites despite not winning there since 1999. The Seahawks are 0-6 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread in their previous six trips to Lambeau Field, but they have won three of the past four meetings with the Packers, including an epic NFC Championship Game matchup two years ago.

Point spread: The Seahawks opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.4-23.8 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

The Seahawks are the better defensive team, and defense wins championships more often than not. That is the main reason why Seattle is sitting atop the NFC West while Green Bay is tied for second in the NFC North.

The Packers have surrendered 108 more points than the Seahawks so far this season to go along with a minus-seven point differential overall. Their best defensive player, linebacker Clay Matthews, is also playing with a shoulder injury that has limited him to essentially playing with one arm. That could be trouble against Seattle's reborn rushing attack, which saw Thomas Rawls run for 106 yards and two touchdowns last week.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay's defense has played a lot better during its two-game winning streak, giving up just 13 points apiece to the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans. The offense has also played well behind quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown more with a nearly nonexistent running game.

Rodgers will look to take advantage of the absence of Seahawks safety Earl Thomas after he suffered a broken leg in Sunday night's 40-7 rout of the Carolina Panthers. The Packers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Smart pick

While picking Green Bay to pull off the upset is tempting as a home dog here, the team's inability to run the ball will prove costly. Winter has arrived, and Seattle has a definitive edge in that department between Rawls and quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have gone 9-1 SU and ATS in their past 10 December games, and they will improve upon that with a win and cover at online betting sites to end their six-game skid at Lambeau.

Betting trends

The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Packers.

The total has gone under in seven of the Packers' last 10 games against teams with winning records.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.