NFL Week 14 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

The slate in Week 14 starts with a bang as the rarely relevant Thursday Night Football game kicks off the week with the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs vying for first place in the AFC West. 

A win for the Chiefs ties them with the 10-2 Raiders for first place in the division, while Oakland can take sole possession of the top spot by two games with a win in the marquee matchup. 

As we draw one week closer to the playoffs, there are several matchups that just mean a little bit more given their ramifications on the standings. From divisional rivalries to teams just trying to claw their way into a wild-card spot, here's a look at the entire schedule for the week with the latest odds from Odds Shark and a prediction for each:

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Prediction
Oakland at Kansas City (TNF)	KC -3	46.5	KC/U
Pittsburgh at Buffalo	PIT -1.5	47	PIT/O
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -6	47	HOU/U
Washington at Philadelphia	E	46.5	PHI/O
Denver at Tennessee	TEN -1	43.5	DEN/U
Arizona at Miami	MIA -1	43.5	ARI/O
Minnesota at Jacksonville	MIN -3.5	39	MIN/O
San Diego at Carolina	CAR -1	48	SD/U
Cincinnati at Cleveland	CIN -6	43	CIN/U
Chicago at Detroit	DET -8	43.5	DET/O
N.Y. Jets at San Francisco	SF -2.5	44.5	SF/U
Seattle at Green Bay	SEA -3	46	GB/O
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	51.5	TB/O
Atlanta at L.A. Rams	ATL -6	45	ATL/O
Dallas at N.Y. Giants	DAL -3	47.5	DAL/U
Baltimore at New England (MNF)	NE -7	45	NE/U

Oakland at Kansas City

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There's no doubt this is the main event of the week. The AFC West has been the best conference overall this season and could wind up featuring a divisional championship game with the winner going into the final three weeks of the season with serious momentum. 

The first matchup between these two teams wasn't particularly close, though. 

The Chiefs handed the Raiders one of their two losses this season 26-10 on the strength of a 13-0 run in the second half. 

Since then, the Raiders have ripped off six straight wins and recently had a monstrous second half of their own. Down 24-9 in the third quarter last week, Derek Carr led a comeback that resulted in a 38-24 win. 

So why take the Chiefs against the red-hot Raiders?

Because the Chiefs aren't much different than they were when they beat the Raiders the first time around. Kansas City has gone on a tear of its own, going 6-1 during the same stretch. 

Then there's the track record of Alex Smith having some of his best games against the Oakland Raiders. BJ Kissell noted Smith's career success against the franchise:

Smith is playing some great football right now, too. Taking on the Atlanta Falcons' explosive offense, Smith did what he had to do to keep up in going 21-of-25 for 270 yards and one touchdown. 

Smith gets a lot of flak for not having the strongest arm or making the most flashy plays, but very few are better at taking care of the ball and putting his offense in a position to succeed.

In a game that should come down to which defense can have more success and cause turnovers, Smith's ability will be crucial. The Chiefs should even up this division race at home. 

Chiefs 27, Raiders 21

Denver at Tennessee

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The AFC matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Tennessee Titans might not gain the headlines of the Chiefs-Raiders game, but it's an important piece to the AFC playoff puzzle nonetheless. 

The Broncos are clinging to that final wild-card spot at 8-4 thanks to their position in the brutal AFC West. A win here would put even more space between them and the 7-5 Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers with one less game for each of those teams to use to catch up. 

However, the Titans are in a playoff race of their own, as they are currently tied with the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts for the lead in the AFC South. A win for them would ensure that they keep the pressure on the Texans and Colts while also giving them the confidence they can compete with legitimate playoff teams. 

The defending Super Bowl champions go on the road as ever-so-slight underdogs but should get the nod against a Tennessee team that just isn't quite on the same level as the Broncos yet. 

Three of the Broncos' four losses this season have come against teams that appear destined for the playoffs in the Atlanta Falcons, the Raiders and the Chiefs. So, for the most part, the Broncos have taken care of business against inferior competition. 

A look at the advanced metrics of DVOA from Football Outsiders would tell us that that's exactly what the Titans are in this matchup. They have the Broncos just outside the top 10 in the league at No. 11, and the Titans at slightly below average at No. 18 overall. 

Pro Football Focus' power rankings paint a similar picture. Its rankings have the Broncos at No. 7 and the Titans at No. 17, primarily weighed down by a defense that is 26th in the league. 

Marcus Mariota has been on fire of late. His numbers even earned him Player of the Month honors in November:

However, he put those numbers up against a defense that ranks in the DVOA and PFF top 10, and that was San Diego. 

Putting those numbers up against a Broncos pass rush that leads the league in sacks is another story. 

Broncos 21, Titans 13

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

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The AFC doesn't have all the good matchups, though. There's a bit of a changing-of-the-guard matchup taking place in the NFC South between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that's worth keeping an eye on. 

The young Bucs, led by Jameis Winston, are tied for the NFC South lead with the Falcons, but they will need to show they can win when they're supposed to when they host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. 

Winston and the Bucs have really come on in recent weeks. They were the biggest risers in Chris Simms' power rankings this week after a 28-21 win over San Diego that extended their winning streak to four.

Much of that winning streak has been due to Winston's maturation as the leader of the team. Dirk Koetter talked about his unique leadership style. The quarterback was known for being vocal back at Florida State, and he's brought that element of his game to the NFL, per Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:

"

It's refreshing. I've said many times if you didn't know better, it could come across almost as corny sometimes. But when Jameis does it, it's not. If I said some of the stuff he did or some other quarterbacks I've been around...but that's Jameis. That's really who he is. That's who he is every day. After the players are around it, they're attracted to that. Because sometimes Jameis says things they wish they could say or wish they had it in them to say. And he backs it up.

"

On the other side of the matchup is Drew Brees, which would explain why this game has the highest over/under on the slate. 

Brees should be able to have success against the Buccaneers, but the Saints' only two road wins on the season have come against the Chargers and the 49ers. That's not exactly a murderers' row, and it's going to be difficult for them to add the surging Bucs to that list. 

Buccaneers 35, Saints 31