Week 13 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

One look at the rest of the Week 13 odds out of Las Vegas suggests bettors have a tough road ahead.

There, one game has a spread at or higher than seven points—and it is about as easy as it gets with the New England Patriots hosting the Los Angeles Rams. Only two other spreads even reach the six-point mark.

Looks can be deceiving. The Thursday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings had the former favored by less than a field goal, yet the majority of bettors had to know the Cowboy would win (they did, 17-15).

Outright bets look like the way to go this week, while perhaps gaining other capital on something such as the over/under. For those perusing lines at the last minute, here is a look at the full Week 13 slate.

NFL Week 13 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Miami at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	41	BAL 23-20
San Francisco at Chicago	SF -2	43.5	CHI 30-27
Houston at Green Bay	GB -7	46.5	GB 24-20
Kansas City at Atlanta	ATL -5	49	KC 28-24
L.A. Rams at New England	NE -13.5	46	NE 24-7
Detroit at New Orleans	NO -5.5	53.5	DET 27-24
Philadelphia at Cincinnati	CIN -1	41.5	PHI 24-20
Denver at Jacksonville	DEN -3.5	41.5	DEN 23-13
Buffalo at Oakland	OAK -3.5	49.5	OAK 26-21
Tampa Bay at San Diego	SD -3.5	47.5	TB 30-17
Washington at Arizona	ARI -2	49.5	WAS 24-21
N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh	PIT -6	49	PIT 27-24
Carolina at Seattle	SEA -7	44.5	SEA 30-24
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (MNF)	IND -1.5	49.5	IND 24-10

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.

San Francisco (-2) at Chicago

A meet between the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears doesn't seem like the best time for bettors considering the teams combine to boast three wins.

Those who love finding upsets—and fantasy football owners—should like the contest, however.

San Francisco, the one-win team on the road, sits as a favorite here. It's interesting, as the 49ers haven't won a game since Week 1, with most of the enthusiasm seeming to stem from the fact Colin Kaepernick threw three touchdowns in a Week 12 loss.

Honestly? Big deal. The Bears have lost their last two games by six points apiece while dealing with serious injury woes, including under center. In Week 12, Matt Barkley (not Jay Cutler, not Brian Hoyer, not Connor Shaw) threw for 316 yards and three scores. Keep in mind he did this without Alshon Jeffery on the field.

Category	Rank
P YDS/G	252.6 (15th)
R YDS/G	171.8 (32nd)
PTS/G	31.3 (32nd)

Something has to give in this contest. While the Chicago defense will be without starting linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, it still doesn't compare to the misery known as the San Francisco defense, shown in the table.

With Barkley playing well, the Bears shouldn't have too many problems putting up points at home. Bonus points, too, if snowfall hits the contest and helps slow a visiting team that had to travel across the country for the contest.

Prediction: Bears 30-27

Denver (-3.5) at Jacksonville

Get this—a line between the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars has moved in favor of the latter.

This one started at about a five-point spread in favor of the Broncos and has since moved. The original spread seemed too small, so this updated one looks like the perfect time for bettors to make some guaranteed headway.

The reason for the shift sounds scary—the Broncos won't have their starting quarterback. Trevor Siemian won't play thanks to a foot injury, the Broncos announced. But, this isn't as scary as it sounds—Siemian only has 15 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the year.

This leaves the offense in the hands of rookie Paxton Lynch against a team allowing an average of 26.6 points per game with only three interceptions on the year.

Much of the same defense that carried the Broncos to a Super Bowl last year remains and only permits 19.9 points. The unit has to deal with a regressed Blake Bortles, who has 20 touchdowns to 13 interceptions while completing less than 60 percent of his passes. Chris Ivory is a physical back, but the Jaguars only manage 4.2 yards per carry and no starting back has an average higher than 3.8.

The reasoning for the line change isn't totally ridiculous, but said reason won't have an overwhelming impact on the outcome of this one. This seems to be the year of rookie quarterbacks playing well, so Lynch at worst acting like a game manager while cruising to a win against one of the league's worst teams is something bettors can get behind.

Prediction: Broncos 23-13

N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh (-6)

Say hello to one of the toughest Week 13 lines. 

Perceptive bettors know the deal with the New York Giants. Though Eli Manning has the team on a six-game tear, only one team defeated (Baltimore Ravens) had a record better than .500. The aforementioned Bears and winless Cleveland Browns help make up the laughable stretch. 

Then again, those with a nose for betting also understand the Steelers have problems showing up against rather uncommon foes, hence blowouts at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins earlier this year.

The saving grace for Pittsburgh? Those losses came on the road. The team now welcomes the Giants after Manning and his normally elite offense could only gain 296 yards against the Browns while escaping with a win.

"I don't think we took a step back (against Cleveland), but I definitely think we could have taken a bigger step forward. We got time—a couple more games left. Now it's time to progress this week," wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com).

Though the Giants can paint it however they want, the offense should have built momentum going into a possible shootout. Pittsburgh, after all, drummed up a 28-7 win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12 with three touchdowns passes from Ben Roethlisberger. The week before that, the Steelers smacked around the Browns, 24-9.

Outright, bettors should expect the Steelers to show up big at home against a visiting team not often tested. Against the spread, Manning, Beckham and others have the talent to at least keep it close. A familiarity with close, difficult contests will be the difference.

Prediction: Steelers 27-24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.