Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts don't seem to like playing under the lights, considering they've lost their last five prime-time TV night games and 10 of their last 13. After losing Thursday night last week, the Colts play Monday night this week against the New York Jets in New Jersey.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (view line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.7-18.8 Jets (NFL picks on every game).

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis had won two straight games both straight up and against the spread to reach .500 on the season, but on Thanksgiving night, playing without injured quarterback Andrew Luck, the team lost at home to Pittsburgh 28-7. The Colts fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter, pulled to within 14-7 and had chances to keep things close. But Adam Vinatieri missed a field goal from 52 yards out, and the Indy offense twice failed on 4th-and-goals from the Pittsburgh 1-yard line.

Six-year clipboard jockey Scott Tolzien, who was in at quarterback for the Colts, hit on 22 of 36 throws for 205 yards with one touchdown, and those numbers would have been better if not for a couple of key drops. And while he also threw two interceptions, they both came basically in desperation mode. Reports early this week indicate Luck will be back Monday night.

Indianapolis may only be 5-6 on the season, but it sits just one game out of first place in the AFC South.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York has lost three games in a row by a total of 12 points. First, it was a 27-23 loss at Miami; then it was a 9-6 loss to Los Angeles; and last week it was a tough 22-17 loss to New England.

The Jets actually led the Patriots last week 10-0 in the second quarter and 17-13 in the third but gave up the last nine points of the game, the last six on a Tom Brady touchdown pass with less than two minutes to go. Still, they hung on for the cover as nine-point home dogs.

New York lost to the Dolphins on a Miami kickoff return for a touchdown with five minutes to go. And the loss to the Rams came on a field goal midway through the fourth quarter. So the Jets, even while they're near-dead for this season at 3-8, are playing some close games.

Smart pick

New York is struggling in the wins/losses department, but it's actually outgained three of its last five opponents and outrushed four of its last five foes. Meanwhile the Colts, regardless of who has been playing quarterback, have been outgained seven of their last eight times out. It's not an easy call to make, but the Jets are the better wager here at sports betting sites.

Betting trends

The Colts are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.

The total has gone over in five of the Colts' last seven games against the Jets.

The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in December.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.