Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Jacksonville began 2016 with great expectations; instead, the Jaguars are playing out the string in a lost season, thanks in part to a 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread performance at home. Jacksonville looks to salvage some pride when it hosts the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as five-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.0-21.2 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are looking to bounce back after taking a tough 30-27 overtime loss to rival Kansas City last week. Denver trailed the Chiefs early 9-0, rallied to take a 24-16 lead with just three minutes to go but allowed Kansas City to drive 75 yards for a touchdown and a game-tying two-point conversion. The Broncos then lost the game late in overtime when a long field goal attempt came up short, giving the Chiefs good field position and just enough time to drive to their own game-winning kick.

Denver outgained Kansas City 464-273 and outrushed the Chiefs 124-83. But the Broncos also gave away nine points on a safety and an 86-yard kickoff return for a score.

Two weeks ago, Denver nipped New Orleans at the Superdome 25-23. So the Broncos are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season and 2-0 both SU and ATS in the Eastern time zone.

At 7-4 overall, Denver trails first-place Oakland by just a game in the AFC West and sits tied with Miami for the second AFC wild card slot.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars now own a six-game losing streak, after falling at Buffalo last week 28-21. But each of their last four losses has come by one score or less.

Jacksonville grabbed an early 7-0 lead on the Bills last week by scoring a touchdown on its opening drive for the first time in recent memory. The Jaguars also led 21-20 early in the fourth quarter. And while they eventually lost the game, they hung on for the cover as eight-point dogs.

On the day, Jacksonville came up short in total yardage by a 304-301 margin, but 137 of Buffalo's yards came on just two plays. The Jags also outrushed the Bills 183-153 and won time of possession by a 34/26 split.

Two weeks ago, Jacksonville led at Detroit 19-16 through three quarters but lost 26-19. Just before that the Jaguars lost by a field goal to Houston. And just before that they fell at Kansas City 19-14. Jacksonville has also outgained and outrushed three of its last four opponents.

Smart pick

According to the win/loss records, this game is a mismatch. But while Denver is plus-23 in total yardage per game this season, Jacksonville is plus-13, a figure more representative of a 6-5 or 7-4 team, rather than one that's 2-9. The smart money at sports betting sites here rides with the Jags.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.

The Broncos are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 13.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.