Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are suddenly road warriors, posting three straight wins and covers away from home. The Bucs will hope to make it four in a row on the road and stay in playoff contention when they visit the San Diego Chargers on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.1-21.2, Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread over their last three games, including last week's 14-5 upset of the Seattle Seahawks. Tampa grabbed an early 14-0 lead on a pair of Jameis Winston touchdown passes to Mike Evans and then hung on from there for the outright victory as a five-point home underdog.

On the day, the Buccaneers outgained the Seahawks 338-245 and held a 33:39-26:21 advantage in time of possession, and the defense held Seattle out of the end zone all day. That unit has now allowed a total of just 30 points over the last three games.

Two weeks ago, Tampa Bay upset the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium 19-17, and just before that, the Bucs bombed the Chicago Bears 36-10. That's three games in a row that Tampa Bay has won outright as an underdog.

At 6-5 overall, the Buccaneers trail the first-place Atlanta Falcons by just one game in the NFC South and Washington by a half-game in the battle for the second NFC wild-card berth.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers picked up perhaps a season-saving victory last week, beating the Houston Texans as two-point favorites 21-13. San Diego spotted the Texans the game's first touchdown, scored twice to take a 14-7 lead into halftime and hung on from there for the win and the cover.

On the afternoon, the Chargers came up short in total yardage by a 354-302 margin, but most of Houston's yards came in catch-up mode. The San Diego defense forced four Texans turnovers, and the Bolts offense committed just one.

The Chargers are 4-2 SU over their last six games and 5-2 ATS over their last seven, and they have outgained six of their last eight foes.

At 5-6, San Diego trails the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos by two games in the fight for the second AFC wild-card slot.

Smart pick

The Buccaneers are coming off a big effort last week, and they will now fly across the country, which could leave them open to a letdown. But Tampa also has running back Doug Martin back from injury, and he's coming off his most productive performance of the year. Meanwhile, San Diego seems to always play close games, regardless of its opponents. The smart bet here on the Vegas lines is the Bucs plus the points.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Chargers.

The total has gone over in the Buccaneers' last seven games against the Chargers.

The total has gone over in four of the Chargers' last five games at home.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.