Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

Two teams looking to avoid letdowns coming off big wins last week will square off in Atlanta on Sunday when the Falcons (7-4) host the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) as small home favorites.

The Chiefs edged the Denver Broncos 30-27 in overtime as 3.5-point road underdogs in the Sunday night game while the Falcons crushed the Arizona Cardinals 38-19 as four-point home chalk.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as four-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.5-18.6 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is riding a lot of momentum after beating Denver, an opponent the team had lost seven of eight meetings with prior to the victory. The Chiefs are the only AFC West squad that is unbeaten in divisional play, and they have also been a solid road team with a 4-2 mark straight up and against the spread.

In fact, they have won four in a row away from home both SU and ATS, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Thus far, Atlanta has managed to avoid last season's pitfall that was already well underway at this point a year ago following a 5-0 start. The Falcons have won three of their last four games, with the lone loss during that stretch coming on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The favorite is also an impressive 6-1 SU and ATS in the past seven meetings between these teams, so Atlanta has that positive trend on its side too.

Smart pick

The most critical betting trend in this game may involve Kansas City, which is a dismal 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after covering the number. The Chiefs have been called Super Bowl contenders off and on throughout head coach Andy Reid's tenure, and they seem to disappoint every time bettors jump on their bandwagon. They were lucky to beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 10, the last time they visited an NFC South team.

While Kansas City has won six of seven, the loss came two weeks ago at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team the Falcons routed 43-28 on the road two weeks earlier. Atlanta will take care of business here as the favorite by winning SU and ATS again.

Betting trends

The favored team is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.

The total has gone over in the Chiefs' last four games against the Falcons.

The total has gone under in the Falcons' last seven games in December.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.