What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 13?
Another week of NFL action has passed, with another on the horizon. For those of you living in a fantasy football world, this means it's time for some difficult roster decisions.
Heading into Week 13, many of you are probably looking at your last chance to make a run at the postseason. Some of you may already be starting your fantasy playoffs. Either way, this is going to be a very important week on the fantasy calendar.
If you have a playoff-caliber fantasy lineup, then you likely have a roster full of fantasy studs. The question you (always) need to be asking: Which studs can you trust?
We've seen top-tier fantasy players struggle to produce for a variety of reasons this season. Rob Gronkowski has missed games due to injury. Julio Jones has been blanketed by opposing coverage. Ben Roethlisberger has faced difficult matchups and faltered.
So who, exactly, should we be comfortable with in Week 13? Well, that's exactly what we're going to try to figure out.
For this list, we'll examine players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult scenarios and challenging matchups, while providing a comfort level for each player on our list.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Running back Ezekiel Elliott is not only a rookie sensation for the Dallas Cowboys, but he's a legitimate fantasy stud. He has already racked up 1,199 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground and is ranked second in fantasy RB scoring on NFL.com.
Elliott and the Cowboys will help kick off Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. What fantasy owners want to know is whether Elliott can thrive against that stiff Minnesota defense.
The Vikings are rated 10th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and are allowing an average of just 100.2 yards rushing per game.
Realistically, we think Elliott will be just fine here. He has proven himself to be virtually matchup-proof, as his recent game against the Baltimore Ravens showed.
Baltimore is rated seventh in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and allows an NFL-low 74.9 yards rushing per contest. Yet, when Elliott took on the Ravens two weeks ago, he finished with 127 combined rushing and receiving yards and four receptions.
No, those aren't standout numbers, but they're certainly starting-caliber. We believe Elliott can manage solid fantasy production again this week.
Comfort Level: Favorite Easy Chair by a Roaring Fire
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
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Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley was last year's rookie sensation and a certified fantasy stud. However, he hasn't quite lived up to the hype of a repeat performance.
In 2015, the Georgia product rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 13 games. So far this season, he only has 641 yards rushing with four touchdowns. Even worse, Gurley has watched his yards-per-carry average drop from 4.8 to 3.2.
Gurley and the slipping Rams will both look to bounce back this week against the New England Patriots.
“We just have to keep fighting, man,” Gurley said, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. “No matter what the record is, you don’t want to go out like little punks."
Unfortunately, the Patriots don't represent a favorable matchup for Gurley or for the Rams. New England is currently rated second in run defense by Pro Football Focus and is allowing just 17.9 points per game.
In addition, New England has a habit of working to take away a team's biggest offensive weapon. If the Patriots consider that to be Gurley, then the team's entire defensive game plan will revolve around stopping him.
Don't expect this to be the week Gurley explodes.
Comfort Level: Metal Folding Chair by a Lava Lamp
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi might not be a rookie, but he has definitely become a fantasy sensation in his second pro season. The Boise State product has already produced two 200-yard games and has rushed for 847 yards and seven touchdowns in total.
Ajayi is ranked 11th in fantasy RB scoring on NFL.com.
The problem for Ajayi owners is that he and the Dolphins are visiting the Baltimore Ravens this week. While the Ravens might not be the most dominant team in 2016, they have fielded an incredibly good defense.
Baltimore is rated first in run defense and seventh in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. No team is allowing fewer rushing yards than the Ravens.
While there is a chance Ajayi could still have a solid day—after all, Ezekiel Elliott managed to a couple weeks ago—we wouldn't count on it. Elliott had the benefit of playing at home, and he provides more value as a pass-catcher. Ajayi averages around 1.5 receptions per game.
Our guess is that a disappointing week is in store for Ajayi.
Comfort Level: Sleeping on the Floor By a Fire
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
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If you're a fantasy owner of Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed, there's a good chance you're wondering whether he'll even play in Week 13.
Reed suffered a shoulder injury last week against the Cowboys. He returned to finish the game, but it was later announced that the injury was a Grade 3 shoulder separation.
The bad news is that a Grade 3 shoulder separation is pretty serious—and painful. The good news, as former NFL physician David J. Chao recently stated, is that Reed should be able to play through the injury if properly medicated.
The translation should read: Go ahead and start Reed if he plays.
The fantasy superstar played the majority of the game against Dallas with the shoulder separation and finished with 10 receptions for 95 yards and two touchdowns.
However, we'd recommend tempering expectations for Reed this week against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is rated second in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and allows just 195.1 yards passing per game.
You'll need to follow Reed throughout the week. If the Redskins decide to hold him out, you'll obviously need to find a replacement.
Comfort Level: Bare-Handed Snowball-Rolling
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
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Earlier we mentioned Todd Gurley and his not-so-enticing matchup with the New England Patriots. Well, you might be wondering how some Patriots players are going to fare against that Los Angeles Rams defense.
The Rams are rated eighth in overall defense and first in pass rush by Pro Football Focus. This could mean that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is in for a long day.
While this could indeed be a long, physical and uncomfortable day for Brady, we don't think it'll be enough to keep him from stud status in Week 13. Brady—who has thrown for 2,201 yards with 18 touchdowns and one interception in seven games—has been a virtual machine this season.
Another quarterback with machine-like qualities is New Orleans Saints signal-caller Drew Brees, and he just torched the Rams defense for 310 yards and four touchdowns in Week 12.
We're not so sure that Brady will be able to replicate what Brees did a week ago, but we do think he can have an average game by Brady standards, which is an above-average outing for most fantasy owners.
Comfort Level: Kitten Party
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
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You might also be wondering about Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, both because of the matchup against the Rams and because of his health.
Gronkowski returned from a perforated lung to play in Week 13, but he left early with a back injury and did not return. Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole reports that the Patriots don't consider the injury to be serious but plan to be cautious with him.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported Sunday that Gronkowski isn't expected to miss any time beyond last week's game.
Our guess, though, is that Gronkowski plays and produces at least starting-caliber fantasy numbers. This is just what we can expect from Gronkowski when he suits up with Brady under center. Don't expect high-end numbers—especially with Martellus Bennett also in the lineup and against the Rams—but a sound outing for Gronk.
Comfort Level: Sleeping on a Futon
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
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Julio Jones is undeniably a fantasy stud and a must-start whenever he is healthy. However, there's no denying the fact that he has struggled to produce big fantasy numbers when faced with daunting matchups.
Jones had just two catches for 29 yards against the Denver Broncos in Week 5. He has four receptions against the Arizona Cardinals last week, but for a mere 35 yards.
This week, Jones and the Falcons host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are rated eighth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus and feature star cornerback Marcus Peters. If Jones spends the entire game matched up against Peters, he could again struggle.
However, we don't think the Chiefs will be able to shut down Jones or the Falcons. Jones' size and physicality should allow him to find at least some one-on-one matchups, and the Falcons should look for ways to move Jones away from Peters.
If the Falcons can get Jones away from Peters, he could actually be in store for a pretty big day. Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian gashed the Chiefs for 368 yards passing and three touchdowns last week.
You might say Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is just a couple steps above Siemain in quarterback quality.
Comfort Level: Furry Boots
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been a fantasy stud over the past couple years because of his ability to move the ball in a variety of ways. However, he has been a bit up and down this season, as have the Panthers as a team.
Last week, Newton produced 246 yards passing with two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and one interception. Two weeks ago, though, he scored just once and failed to reach the 200-yard mark through the air.
Unfortunately, we get the feeling this is going to be a down week for Newton. He and the Panthers have to travel across the country to take on the Seattle Seahawks and their fearsome defense.
The Seahawks are currently rated third in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and allow an NFL-low 17 points per game. Seattle has produced 31 sacks and 10 interceptions as a team so far.
It isn't going to help that Newton's offensive line could be shaky. According to ESPN's Field Yates, the Panthers have placed both starting center Ryan Kalil and backup center Gino Gradkowski on injured reserve.
Comfort Level: Shoveling Snow in Sandals
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