NFL Predictions Week 13: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Upsets are back on the table, folks.

A crazy Week 12 featuring an erratic holiday slate didn't offer many. The Seattle Seahawks took a loss, but otherwise things pretty much shook out as expected.

There's no chance Week 13 will be a ho-hum venture for bettors who like to play it safe. It is a week starting with a bang on Thursday Night Football, with the close odds between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings saying it all.

The task for bettors only gets tougher from there. To help, here is a look at how Las Vegas feels about each game, along with a zoom in on three upset picks.

NFL Week 13 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Dallas at Minnesota (TNF)	DAL -2.5	43.5	DAL 27-20
Miami at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	41	BAL 23-20
San Francisco at Chicago	CHI -3	43.5	CHI 30-27
Houston at Green Bay	GB -3.5	46.5	GB 24-20
Kansas City at Atlanta	ATL -4	49	KC 28-24
L.A. Rams at New England	NE -13.5	46	NE 24-7
Detroit at New Orleans	NO -5	53.5	DET 27-24
Philadelphia at Cincinnati	PHI -1	41.5	PHI 24-20
Denver at Jacksonville	DEN -5	41.5	DEN 23-13
Buffalo at Oakland	OAK -3.5	49.5	OAK 26-21
Tampa Bay at San Diego	SD -5.5	47.5	TB 30-17
Washington at Arizona	ARI -2.5	49.5	WAS 24-21
N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh	PIT -6	49	PIT 27-24
Carolina at Seattle	SEA -6.5	44.5	SEA 30-24
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (MNF)	IND -2.5	49.5	IND 24-10

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Underdogs

Kansas City at Atlanta (-4)

One of the week's marquee games offers prime upset material, as cross-conference encounters often do.

The Kansas City Chiefs sit on an 8-3 record and have won six of their last seven games. The Atlanta Falcons are right there with them at 7-4, having won three of their last four.

In fact, the parallels between the two sides are interesting. Both teams lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams defeated the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders—on the road. Both also beat the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers.

So what gives?

Defense and turnovers.

Kansas City won't blow anyone away on offense with numbers. Alex Smith has 10 touchdowns against four interceptions, and his backfield seems like a hodgepodge of names each week. So no, he won't impress like say, Matt Ryan and his 26 touchdowns against six interceptions.

The Chiefs only permit an average of 19.5 points per game and boast 24 sacks and 13 interceptions, good for a plus-14 standing. This is a defense sure to give Ryan, whose line has already coughed up 27 sacks, big issues. If Ryan isn't effective, the whole team leans on a defense allowing 27.5 points per game.

In a game with this many close calls, the underdog looks like a good roll. Kansas City's ability to create a few turnovers and hand things over to a ball-control offense will create an upset, at least on Vegas terms. For the Chiefs, it will feel like anything but.

Prediction: Chiefs 28-24

Detroit at New Orleans (-5)

The New Orleans Saints, coming off a blowout of the lowly Los Angeles Rams, sit as five-point favorites against the visiting Detroit Lions.

Bettors know what to do.

Beating up on the Rams isn't impressive, especially since it broke a two-game skid. Home-field advantage in New Orleans isn't what it used to be, either, not with the Saints already sitting on three home losses this year.

The teams to beat New Orleans at home? Oakland, Atlanta and Denver—and Detroit doesn't look so out of place on such a list.

Those Lions sit in first place in the NFC North at 7-4 and have won six of their last seven. More impressively, the Lions keep winning when it matters, as the team pointed out on Twitter:

Such a habit of thriving in close games will help the Lions in what should be a close one in Week 13, because Matthew Stafford (19 touchdowns, five interceptions) against Drew Brees (30 touchdowns, eight interceptions) will find a way to be close.

The difference, again, comes down to defense. Detroit is better than many would expect in most regards, raking 15th at 21.6 points per game. New Orleans is 30th at 27.9.

Whereas New Orleans has struggled at times against top-tier competition, the Lions keep finding ways to win through a balanced roster. Like usual, bettors can expect Stafford to bring the Lions back late after trailing for most of the game. This line should shrink, so bettors better hurry.

Prediction: Lions 27-24

Tampa Bay at San Diego (-5.5)

Remember the Buccaneers, the team with wins against Atlanta and Kansas City? Oh, and remember the note about the Seahawks losing? Tampa Bay is responsible.

Slowly, Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers continue to look like an improving team each week. Behind his 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, the Buccaneers have won three in a row, including a Week 12, 14-5 dismissal of the Seahawks.

There, Winston found Mike Evans for 104 yards and two scores while Doug Martin rushed for 87 yards, proof enough the young offense has some weapons few can contain.

As the NFL's official Twitter account noted, Winston has been on fire lately:

The Chargers, by comparison, are as cold as a bucket of ice. Philip Rivers helped the team get a win in Week 12, but the five-win roster simply hasn't overcome injuries and has traded wins and losses every week since Week 8.

Rivers isn't having a bad season at 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, but he's suffered 26 sacks, his ground game averages 3.8 yards per carry and his defense ranks 26th against the pass and allows 26.5 points per game.

If San Diego had a healthy roster with players such as Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Jason Verrett and Manti Te'o not sitting on injured reserve, this would be a much different story.

Instead, the surging Buccaneers have an avenue to plenty of points in this one while flustering a one-dimensional offense. This is perhaps the week's fastest-shrinking line, so bettors will want to hop aboard soon.

Prediction: Buccaneers 30-17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.