Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (9-2) return home on Sunday to host the Los Angeles Rams (4-7) after playing consecutive road games, and they are listed as double-digit favorites for the third time this season. New England has covered the spread twice previously as double-digit chalk but has also dropped two of its last three at home straight up to the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 13.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.4-10.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams will give rookie quarterback Jared Goff his third straight start, and they have already seen a big improvement from his first to his second NFL game despite losing 49-21 to the New Orleans Saints as 7.5-point road underdogs last Sunday.

Goff kept Los Angeles in the game in the first half at New Orleans with three touchdown passes, which is three more than he had overall in his debut at home versus the Miami Dolphins the previous week. There was little pressure on him to beat the Saints, and that should be the case again opposite future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and the Patriots this week.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has won the past four meetings with Los Angeles SU to go along with a 4-1 mark against the spread in the last five. The Rams are also just 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven games against teams with winning records, with the Patriots continuing to battle the Oakland Raiders for the top seed in the AFC.

New England just played a rough stretch with four of five games on the road and closes out the season with three of five at home, including two straight.

Smart pick

The Patriots do not have a lot of motivation to blow out the Rams in this spot, as they simply need a victory here so they can move on and host the Baltimore Ravens in their next game. Surprisingly, they are an unlucky 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 13, which should not be too shocking considering the team is more focused on stockpiling wins than going for style points at this time.

That being said, take lowly Los Angeles to cover the spread on the NFL lines behind Goff and a stronger defensive effort.

Betting trends

The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Patriots.

The total has gone over in six of the Patriots' last eight games at home.

The Patriots are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 13.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.