Week 12 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

NFL bettors have to feel great right now.

No, this isn't referring to the mountain of turkey and gravy in their guts. Thanksgiving was about as straightforward as it gets, with the three favorites emerging victorious.

There doesn't seem to be a ton of wiggle room for upsets in Week 12, which isn't such a bad thing. After all, bettors don't exactly get a bye week like teams do.

As such, relax this week and play it safe before the homestretch—the schedule almost demands it. Here is a look at the updated odds and some risk-free picks.

NFL Week 12 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
N.Y. Giants at Cleveland	NYG -7.5	44	NYG 34-23
San Francisco at Miami	MIA -7.5	45.5	MIA 27-20
L.A. Rams at New Orleans	NO -7.5	46	NO 28-24
Tennessee at Chicago	TEN -5.5	45.5	TEN 30-14
Jacksonville at Buffalo	BUF -7.5	45.5	BUF 24-13
Arizona at Atlanta	ATL -5	50.5	ATL 24-20
Cincinnati at Baltimore	BAL -4.5	41	BAL 27-17
San Diego at Houston	SD -1.5	45.5	SD 23-20
Seattle at Tampa Bay	SEA -6.5	45	SEA 24-23
Kansas City at Denver	DEN -3.5	39.5	KC 24-17
Carolina at Oakland	OAK -3	50.5	OAK 27-20
New England at N.Y. Jets	NE -8	48	NE 30-14
Green Bay at Philadelphia (MNF)	PHI -4	47	PHI 23-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4.5)

The AFC North isn't what it used to be, and that's putting it lightly.

A borderline .500 record hardly gets it done in the division right now, with the Cincinnati Bengals—a mainstay in the playoffs for years—sitting at 3-6-1.

Cincinnati has tied and lost two in a row over its last three. Take out a win against the winless Cleveland Browns, and the Bengals haven't won since Week 4. Not only does A.J. Green have a hamstring injury, but the once proud defense ranks 28th in the league, allowing an average of 123.4 rushing yards per game. Green won't play Sunday, according to Jim Owczarski of Cincinnati.com.

Things aren't nearly as dire for the 5-5 Baltimore Ravens. Their defense is ranked first against the run, allowing 76 yards per game. The unit also gives up just 18.7 points per game, compensating for the fact Joe Flacco has thrown 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions.

At home, Baltimore can ride the improving duo of Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon against a struggling defense while leaning on its own.

Without having to worry about Green, the Ravens can hit a business-as-usual approach, keying on Cincinnati tight end Tyler Eifert and daring the Bengals to send the ball elsewhere.

Prediction: Ravens 27-17

San Diego (-1.5) at Houston

Neither the San Diego Chargers nor Houston Texans have shown much in the way of consistency this season. 

San Diego (4-6) has demonstrated plenty of inconsistency by beating Denver and Atlanta and losing to Kansas City. Ditto for Houston (6-4), which beat Kansas City but lost to Denver, New England and Oakland.

Still, bettors shouldn't fall victim to records—just look at this note from Ben Higgins of 10 News:

At the end of the day, Houston's defense is down J.J. Watt, and it shows, allowing an average of 111.6 rushing yards per game, good for 21st in the NFL. It's a bend-but-don't-break unit, which is a risky play against Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon.

Using Gordon, who has scored nine times already this year, San Diego can set up Rivers through the air. The hobbled Houston defense, which has just 19 sacks on the season, will have a hard time containing tight end Antonio Gates, who has scored in three consecutive games.

The fact San Diego is a favorite on the road says a lot about this one. The Chargers have a huge advantage at quarterback and the proper balance to steal a win away from home. 

Prediction: Chargers 23-20

Carolina at Oakland (-3)

The fact this line is so close is shocking. 

Bettors know the Oakland Raiders (8-2) as the first-place team in the brutal AFC West that is gunning for the postseason behind the arm of Derek Carr. He's sitting on 20 touchdowns to four interceptions with a running game that has rushed for 11 scores.

The Carolina Panthers? The 4-6 squad beat San Francisco, Arizona, Los Angeles and New Orleans—a meh win column if there ever was one.

Little about the Panthers has looked right this year. Cam Newton has 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The ground game averages 3.8 yards per carry. Even the defense has disappointed, averaging 24.6 points allowed. To top it all off, star linebacker Luke Kuechly is on the shelf with an injury and won't play, according to Bryan Strickland of the team's official website.

While Carolina tries to recover a lost identity, Oakland has embraced a new one.

"To know that we can win a football game either way," Carr said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "We can run the football or throw the football. Either way, I'm all for it as long as we keep on winning."

These Raiders should scare the rest of the NFL for their sheer confidence more than anything. Carr and one of the league's hottest teams will be too much for a Panthers team that boasts only one win away from home this year.

Prediction: Raiders 27-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.