Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos will be looking for a third straight home victory as they face the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on Sunday night.

The Broncos are coming off a 25-23 win over the New Orleans Saints as three-point road underdogs last weekend, but Denver has struggled with consistency overall, posting a 3-3 record over its past six games both straight up and against the spread.

The Chiefs saw a five-game SU surge end with last week's 19-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as seven-point home chalk. However, Kansas City has won and covered in three straight away from Arrowhead Stadium.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.3-22.0 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs sit among the league leaders in team defense, limiting opponents to just 18.7 points per game this season, and 15.8 points per game over their past six contests. Kansas City has also allowed 17 or fewer points in its past three games on the road.

The Broncos have been a dicey bet when favored by four or fewer points at home. Denver is just 5-5 SU in its past 10 such outings, and a dismal 2-7-1 ATS.

The Chiefs have also played impressive shutdown football after halftime in recent road dates. Kansas City has held opponents to just seven total points after the half in its past three games on the road, allowing just one total opposing drive inside their 20-yard line.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Chiefs have been playing small ball of late, which has dramatically impacted their performance at the sportsbooks. Kansas City has cracked the 20-point mark just once in its past three games, earning just one ATS win, and is a mediocre 4-6 ATS this season.

Kansas City has won five of six SU, but the Chiefs have been badly outgained and out-possessed in four of five, relying heavily on turnovers to turn the tide in the games where they emerged victorious.

The Broncos have effectively shut down Kansas City in recent visits, holding the Chiefs to 17 or fewer points in four of five. Denver is also 3-1 ATS in its past four games when favored by three or more points at home.

Smart pick

While the Chiefs have played stingy defense, forcing the point total under in seven of eight, their inconsistent point performance is a cause for concern.

The Broncos have dominated Kansas City, winning SU in seven of eight, and ATS in five of seven. Look for a disciplined Denver squad to deny the Chiefs opportunities in a SU and ATS win.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.

The total has gone under in the Chiefs' last six games.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.