Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) return from their bye on Sunday to host the desperate Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) as small home favorites. The Falcons play three of their next four games at the Georgia Dome and hope to continue their push for the NFC South title while the Cardinals look to stay in the playoff hunt.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as four-point favorites; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.3-18.3 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona is playing in desperation mode after losing to the Minnesota Vikings 30-24 as a one-point road underdog last week, falling to 1-2-1 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in the past four games.

To make matters worse, head coach Bruce Arians was hospitalized because of chest pain after Sunday's game, although he has since recovered and should be fine. If anything, the Cardinals should be extra motivated to get back on track and win this one for Arians.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta has won the last seven home meetings with Arizona, covering the spread in three of the previous four. While the Falcons are coming off a 24-15 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as one-point road dogs before their bye, they still lead a disappointing division that has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting in second place.

They have not been a great home team lately and lost their season opener to the Buccaneers there, but their dominance of the Cardinals at the Georgia Dome cannot be discounted.

Smart pick

This should be a high-scoring NFC matchup, which is why the over is the play here. The over is 8-3-1 in the past 12 meetings between the teams, including two of the last three at Atlanta. The over is also 4-0 for the Falcons in their four home games this year and 7-3 overall.

Likewise, Arizona's four road games have all gone over this season as well, with the team surrendering 30 points or more three times. The winner of six of the previous seven meetings has scored at least 27 points and hit 29 or more five times. Look for more of the same in what will be a shootout in Atlanta.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

The Falcons are 1-6 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.

The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Falcons.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.