Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two quarterbacks on opposite ends of their respective careers will square off in New Orleans on Sunday when Drew Brees and the Saints (4-6) host Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams (4-6) as solid home favorites. While Brees continues his reign as one of the most prolific passers in NFL history at the age of 37, the 22-year-old Goff is searching for his first win in his second career start.

Point spread: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-16.5 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Defensively, Los Angeles remains a great team and can compete with anybody in the NFL. The problem for the Rams, especially now with an inexperienced rookie under center, is scoring enough points to beat the opposition.

Surprisingly, it was the defense that let them down late last week in a 14-10 home loss to the Miami Dolphins, surrendering a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns after pitching a shutout for the first 55 minutes. Miami has a much better defense than New Orleans, though, so L.A. should be able to put some points on the scoreboard and take some pressure off its own D.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are a funny team, as they looked like they would be the top challenger for the division-leading Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South after winning four of five. But they have since lost two straight by a combined five points in games they could have won.

Granted, New Orleans trailed the Carolina Panthers 23-3 heading into the fourth quarter before a late 17-0 run earned a push, but the team still had plenty of chances early on. Now the Saints are facing a must-win situation here to keep their playoff hopes alive, and you can bet they will put forth a strong effort against an offensively challenged foe.

Smart pick

It may be an easy pick for some to fade a rookie quarterback making his first career road start in Goff, but these are the types of games that show what a player is made of. There is no doubt that Brees is light-years ahead of Goff in terms of experience, but the New Orleans defense has been holding him back ever since the team won the Super Bowl. The Rams have gone 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings, so back them to keep it closer than expected.

Betting trends

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Saints.

The total has gone over in three of the Rams' last four games on the road against the Saints.

The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.