NFL Week 12 Picks: Game Odds, Props, Lines and Over/Under Predictions

Thanksgiving weekend should remind all NFL teams they have something to be thankful for. 

For instance, the Dallas Cowboys can give thanks for hosting their Thanksgiving game with the best record in the NFL, led by two rookies on offense. 

The Cleveland Browns—on the other hand—can be thankful that the season is nearly three-quarters finished. The NFL draft is practically right around the corner. 

And of course, fans can be thankful for a three-game NFL slate on Thanksgiving to make that family time just a little more palatable than the cranberry sauce your aunt made. 

Here's a look at the complete slate for the Holiday weekend, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark, a quick look at NFL MVP prop odds and a closer examination of some intriguing matchups. 

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Prediction
Minnesota at Detroit (Thursday)	DET -2.5	43.5	DET/O
Washington at Dallas (Thursday)	DAL -7	51.5	DAL/U
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Thursday)	PIT -9	47.5	PIT/U
N.Y. Giants at Cleveland	NYG -7	44.5	NYG/O
San Francisco at Miami	MIA -8	45.5	SF/U
L.A. Rams at New Orleans	NO -7	46	NO/O
Tennessee at Chicago	TEN -5.5	42	CHI/U
Jacksonville at Buffalo	BUF -7.5	44.5	JAX/O
Arizona at Atlanta	ATL -4	50.5	ATL/O
Cincinnati at Baltimore	BAL -4.5	40.5	BAL/O
San Diego at Houston	SD -1.5	46	HOU/U
Seattle at Tampa Bay	SEA -5.5	45	SEA/O
Kansas City at Denver	DEN -3	39.5	DEN/U
Carolina at Oakland	OAK -3	49.5	OAK/U
New England at N.Y. Jets	NE -8	47	NYJ/U
Green Bay at Philadelphia (MNF)	PHI -3.5	47.5	GB/O

NFL MVP Race: Can Anyone Top Tom Brady?

Player	Odds
Tom Brady (NE)	+275 (11-4)
Russell Wilson (SEA)	+350 (7-2)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	+450 (9-2)
Matt Ryan (ATL)	+600 (6-1)
Derek Carr (OAK)	+900 (9-1)
Dak Prescott (DAL)	+1400 (14-1)
Matthew Stafford (DET)	+1600 (16-1)
Drew Brees (NO)	+3300 (33-1)
Julio Jones (ATL)	+3300 (33-1)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)	+3300 (33-1)

In news that should surprise absolutely no one, Tom Brady leads the MVP race. Even missing four games hasn't slowed the 39-year-old down as he has led the Patriots to a tie for the best record in the AFC while leading the league in passer rating. 

The Patriots quarterback is far from a shoo-in, though. 

The field is fairly deep with interesting contenders. Russell Wilson isn't far behind. His Seahawks are once again dominant with a commanding lead in the NFC West and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 11-to-2. 

Ezekiel Elliott also offers a strong case. His running has been integral to the Cowboys' ascension to the best record in football right now. 

However, the scariest opponent to Tom Brady's MVP hopes might be Matt Ryan. Matty Ice is second in the league in passer rating and that aligns with the grade that Pro Football Focus has given him this season:

Ryan's Falcons are in the lead in the NFC South at 6-4 in large part due to the fact that Ryan is second in the league in passing yards, first in yards per attempt and fourth in completion percentage. 

If Ryan can continue that kind of play while the Falcons continue to win their division, it's going to be hard for voters to pass up Ryan's numbers in a 16-game schedule over Brady's body of work over 12 games. 

Seattle at Tampa Bay

Peter Aiken/Getty Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers still exist on the periphery of the NFC playoff picture. At 5-5 the Bucs have done just enough to sit only one game behind the first-place Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South and be 1.5 games behind the Washington Redskins for the wild card. 

Now they have the opportunity to show they are the kind of team that can compete for a postseason spot when they host the Seahawks. 

The Seahawks are once again one of the NFL's elite teams. They recently overtook the Philadelphia Eagles for No. 1 according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The analytics match up with the record, too. The 'Hawks are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC. 

If the Buccaneers can pull off a win hosting the Seahawks, they should be considered a real threat to make the postseason field. 

Unfortunately for them, this isn't the greatest matchup. 

The Seahawks—as usual—boast one of the best front sevens in football. They allow an impressive 3.5 yards per carry to opposing teams. 

Meanwhile, the Bucs offensive line hasn't been a strength in the run game. Doug Martin returning to the lineup has helped, but he didn't get much assistance from the O-line last time out, per Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus:

Ultimately, the young Buccaneers are probably not ready for this opportunity quite yet. Seattle should shut down the run game and force Tampa Bay to rely heavily on Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. 

Winston is certainly capable of rising to the occasion and playing lights out, but he's too inconsistent to bet on in this kind of spot. 

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Buccaneers 20

Kansas City at Denver

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

When it comes to the Week 12 slate, it doesn't get bigger than the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Denver Broncos. 

Both teams sit at 7-3, which currently makes them the two wild cards in the AFC and just one game behind the Oakland Raiders for the division lead. A win here puts either in a great position to not just make the playoffs, but challenge the Raiders for the division. 

While both teams have the same record, they come into Week 12 on opposite ends of the momentum spectrum. 

The Broncos just earned a big win on the road, recouping some lost momentum from a 10-point loss to the Raiders. They beat the Saints in New Orleans, which isn't an easy task. 

The Chiefs will need to overcome their own disappointing loss. The Buccaneers just stunned Kansas City at Arrowhead. 

In that game, the Chiefs struggled to get the ground game going, as Spencer Ware rushed 17 times for just 69 yards. As Chris Simms notes in the video below, the best offenses in the league are the ones who can get things going on the ground this year:

The Broncos have had trouble stopping the run this year, but with Derek Wolfe coming back this week, it's something they are working on fixing. 

"Not good," cornerback Chris Harris said of the run defense, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post. "That’s not our standard here. We know that’s something that we need to tighten up. If (we) tighten up for these last six games in the run, it’s going be hard for teams to beat us."

With the Chiefs' recent struggles against a less-than-stellar Bucs front, the Broncos might just be able to get the run defense where they want it this week. If they can force Alex Smith to beat them through the air, it could be bad news for the Chiefs. 

Prediction: Broncos 17, Chiefs 13