What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 12?
We've almost reached that glorious time of year known as the fantasy postseason. Well, at least it's glorious if you've managed to keep yourself in the playoff hunt.
If you are still in the postseason running, then you've reached a critical point in the season. Week 12 is right around the corner, and every move made from here on out is going to be critical. After all, one wrong decision can send you straight to the consolation bracket.
Unfortunately, not even fantasy studs are decision-proof. Guys like Jay Ajayi (84 total yards, three receptions), Spencer Ware (85 total yards, two receptions) and DeAndre Hopkins (five receptions, 58 yards) failed to live up to their stud status in Week 11.
So who, exactly, can we trust in Week 12? Well, that's what we're going to try to figure out today.
For this list, we'll examine players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult scenarios and challenging matchups, while providing a comfort level for each player on our list.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
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Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins seems to be in the process of establishing himself as a franchise signal-caller. He is definitely establishing himself as a fantasy stud.
So far this season, Cousins has passed for 3,091 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is ranked eighth in fantasy QB scoring by NFL.com.
This week, though, Cousins gets the unenviable task of facing the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving day. While the Dallas defense isn't a particularly dominant unit, it has been effective against the pass at times. Pro Football Focus rates the Cowboys second overall in pass coverage for the season so far.
Still, Cousins seems confident in the task ahead.
"Loved hearing the 'We Want Dallas!' chants as I left the field," Cousins said after last week's win over the Green Bay Packers, via Twitter.
We're pretty confident in Cousins' ability to produce against Dallas as well. While the Dallas defense has been solid in coverage, it hasn't completely stopped opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco passed for 269 yards and a touchdown last week. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger passed for more than 400 yards with three touchdowns two weeks ago.
Expect Cousins to fall somewhere in between—perhaps 250-300 yards with two or three touchdowns in total.
Comfort Level: New Christmas Pajamas
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans showed he is capable of having a big day against a quality pass defense in Week 11 when he racked up 105 yards and six receptions against the Kansas City Chiefs. This week, he'll be looking to do it again against a stout Seattle Seahawks defense at home.
Seattle is currently rated eighth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
What might cause Evans more trouble is the fact the Seahawks have been able to get after the quarterback this year—they have 31 sacks so far. This could make life difficult for Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston and in turn, difficult on Evans.
We're not especially worried, though, as Evans presents a big target and should be a major piece of Tampa's attack plan. Even in a down week—he had just four receptions for 66 yards in Week 10—Winston is good for 10-plus points in PPR formats.
We'd expect 10 points to be the bare minimum for Evans this week, even against Seattle's defense. Realistically, he should be good for a bit more than that.
Comfort Level: New Christmas Sweater
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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We're not quite as confident about Tampa running back Doug Martin in Week 12.
Martin, who rushed for more than 1,402 yards and six touchdowns last season, is beginning to look a lot more like his pre-injury self. He carried the ball 24 times and caught three passes for a total of 105 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. However, Martin is still struggling to find space in the run game.
For the season, Martin is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.
Finding more running room against the Seahawks defense is likely going to prove difficult. Seattle is currently rated second in run defense by Pro Football Focus. Wendell Smallwood led the Philadelphia Eagles with 48 yards rushing last week, while New England Patriots back LeGarrette Blount has just 69 yards rushing in Week 10.
If Martin is going to have significant fantasy value in Week 12, he may have to find it though the passing game. Because of this, we'd consider him a better play in PPR formats than in standard. Overall, this may prove to be a down week for Martin.
Comfort Level: Not Wearing the Christmas Sweater Your Mom Bought You
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
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Speaking of Blount, we should probably acknowledge the fact the Patriots back has been a fantasy stud in 2016. He has already rushed for 802 yards and 12 touchdowns, and is ranked fifth in fantasy RB scoring by NFL.com.
We should also mention that Blount is facing a tough matchup with the New York Jets in Week 12.
The Jets are currently rated 10th in run defense by Pro Football Focus and are allowing just 85.4 yards per game on the ground.
However, this isn't the main reason we're worried about Blount's fantasy prospects for Week 12. What is more worrisome is the fact the Jets have been so susceptible to the pass. New York is rated just 27th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
The Patriots are a team that like to install a weekly game plan. If the Jets are weak against the pass, New England is likely to attack them with Tom Brady and the passing game. Blount may have some value based on volume of work, but he isn't likely to be the centerpiece of the offense in this contest.
Blount managed to rack up 124 yards on 19 carries against the San Francisco 49ers last week. We may see 17 carries again this week, but his yardage total is likely to be significantly lower.
Comfort Level: Having to Sit at the Kids Table During Dinner
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns
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Cleveland Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is establishing himself as a fantasy stud in his first season at the position. The former quarterback has amassed 56 receptions for 724 yards and four touchdowns so far this year.
Pryor is ranked 10th in fantasy WR scoring by NFL.com.
The problems for Pryor this week are a tough New York Giants defense and a lack of continuity at quarterback.
Cleveland is going back to journeyman Josh McCown at quarterback after rookie Cody Kessler suffered his second concussion of the year in Week 11.
"He'll get all the reps in practice and he'll totally be grooved in the gameplan,'' Browns coach Hue Jackson said of McCown, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "He'll be ready to go. I think he'll go out and he will play extremely well for us."
If McCown is going to play well, he'll have to do so against a Giants defense that is rated first in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
Pryor may carry some value based on his role as Cleveland's go-to receiver, but we wouldn't exactly count on him having a monster day.
Comfort Level: Last-Minute Thanksgiving Grocery Shopping
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
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While the Green Bay Packers have struggled to be a consistently strong team in 2016, their problems haven't stemmed from the play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has been pretty darn solid this season, even if this feels like a down year by his standards. He has passed for 2,761 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions so far, and he is ranked first in fantasy QB scoring by NFL.com.
If Rodgers and the Packers are going to end their four-game losing skid, though, they're going to have to do it against a strong Philadelphia Eagles pass defense. Philadelphia is currently allowing an average of just 228.9 yards passing per game.
What could cause particular trouble for Rodgers is the Eagles pass rush, which is rated second overall by Pro Football Focus. Rodgers has all of the tools needed to attack Philadelphia deep, but he'll need time in the pocket to do so.
Fortunately, Rodgers' mobility should give him an advantage here. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was able to thwart the Eagles pass rush with his mobility last week, and he finished with 27 yards passing and a touchdown.
Given Green Bay's lack of a consistent run game, we can probably expect even more from Rodgers.
Comfort Level: Post-Thanksgiving Dinner Nap
Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware may not have entered 2016 as a fantasy stud, but he has become one throughout the season. He has already amassed 641 yards rushing, 340 yards receiving and three touchdowns so far.
Ware s ranked 14th in fantasy RB scoring by NFL.com.
The problem for Ware owners has been some recent struggles. The LSU product has failed to top 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in each of his last two games, both coming post-concussion.
Unfortunately, Ware faces a tough challenge if he is hoping to bounce back in Week 12. He and the Chiefs travel to Denver to take on the Broncos, who still boast a playoff-caliber defense.
Pro Football Focus rates Denver seventh overall in run defense for the season so far.
We'd expect Ware to have some fantasy value because of his role in the offense and his PPR potential, but this doesn't feel like the week he gets back to playing like a top-end fantasy stud.
Comfort Level: Post-Thanksgiving Dinner 5K Run
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
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While Ware will be facing a strong Denver run defense, Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas will be battling a Chiefs defense that is built to attack the pass.
Thomas has been experiencing a bit of a down year by his standards. He has hauled in 55 passes so far for 678 yards and five touchdowns. With just six games remaining, he is on pace for a much more subtle season than in years past.
Thomas has topped the 1,300-yard mark in each of his last four seasons. Finding chunks of missing yardage against this Chiefs defense isn't going to be easy.
As a team, the Chiefs are rated third in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
We would expect a so-so fantasy outing from Thomas, which has really been quite the norm this season. While Thomas did gash the New Orleans Saints for eight receptions, 87 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, a repeat performance doesn't feel likely.
Thomas has averaged roughly 6 receptions and 68 yards this season with a few touchdowns sprinkled throughout. Something in the six-catch, 70-yard range feels about right this week too.
Comfort Level: Tight Pants on Thanksgiving
, QB, San Diego Chargers
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The San Diego Chargers haven't been a consistently good team in 2016, but this hasn't stopped quarterback Philip Rivers from being a regularly effective fantasy starter.
Through 10 games, Rivers has racked up 2,886 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He is ranked 16th in fantasy QB scoring by NFL.com.
This week, though, Rivers and the Chargers offense will be going up against a Houston Texans defense that is looking to avenge a late loss to the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City. That defense is rated fifth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
While we do believe turnovers could be a major factor here—Rivers has 14 so far—we believe Rivers can have at least a solid outing in Week 12. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr tossed an interception against Houston last week, but he also passed for 295 yards with three touchdowns.
We'd expect Rivers to produce slightly lower numbers, as the Chargers try to attack Houston's subpar run defense—rated 28th by Pro Football Focus—on the road. Something in the 275-yard, two-touchdown range feels about right, though there is certainly the potential for more.
Comfort Level: Lying in a Recliner with a Cold Beverage, Watching Football
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