Week 12 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

The holiday season surrounding Week 12 makes for an interesting time for NFL bettors.

A normal week only boasts one Thursday game. For those fortunate enough to play the lines well, this creates a scenario where Las Vegas has little time to react and adapt the lines before kickoff, at least compared to Sunday games.

Week 12 boasts three Thursday games, a coup for bettors who want to get out ahead early on the week's slate or get back losses from a rough Week 11. Some might view three early-week games as a hurdle, but a little assistance in breaking down the lines will have bettors coming out ahead on a holiday while scarfing down some hopefully not-dry turkey.

Let's take a look.

NFL Week 12 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Minnesota at Detroit (Thursday)	DET -2.5	43	DET 27-20
Washington at Dallas (Thursday)	DAL -6.5	51	DAL 30-17
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Thursday)	PIT -3	54	PIT 34-20
N.Y. Giants at Cleveland	NYG -7	44	NYG 34-23
San Francisco at Miami	MIA -7	45.5	SF 27-20
L.A. Rams at New Orleans	NO -7	46	NO 28-24
Tennessee at Chicago	TEN -2	45.5	TEN 30-14
Jacksonville at Buffalo	BUF -7	45.5	BUF 24-13
Arizona at Atlanta	ATL -4	50.5	ATL 24-20
Cincinnati at Baltimore	BAL -4	41	BAL 27-17
San Diego at Houston	E	45.5	SD 23-20
Seattle at Tampa Bay	SEA -5	45	SEA 24-23
Kansas City at Denver	DEN -3.5	39.5	KC 24-17
Carolina at Oakland	OAK -4	50.5	OAK 27-20
New England at N.Y. Jets	NE -9	48	NE 30-14
Green Bay at Philadelphia (MNF)	PHI -3	47	PHI 23-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)

This looks like one of the easier lines of the week. 

On paper, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions share identical 6-4 records and a first-place slot in the NFC North.

What this face-value analysis hides, though, is two teams heading in completely different directions. Detroit has won five of its last six games to make a playoff push, while Minnesota has spiraled out of control more than any other team in the league, losing four of its last five.

Did anyone mention the Lions won a Week 9 encounter between these teams? There, the Lions scored a 22-16 overtime victory after Matthew Stafford threw a pair of scores to one interception and his defense held the Vikings to 78 rushing yards on a 3.1 per-carry average.

Minnesota reacted to the loss in an almost odd manner.

"For the first time in three weeks this team fought like I expected them to fight," Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "If we continue to do these kinds of things, we'll win football games."

Zimmer found a positive in the loss, which says it all about the Vikings right now. The team then went on to drop its next game before a Week 11 win against a 4-5-1 Arizona Cardinals team.

While Minnesota grabs moral victories even in losses after starting the season as one of the league's best teams, Detroit straight up wins games. With this rematch at home and on a short week, bettors can expect Stafford and the Lions to keep the Vikings at bay.

Prediction: Lions 27-20

Washington at Dallas (-6.5)

Las Vegas seems to tread lightly on Thursday's NFC East encounter between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.

Bettors shouldn't.

One of the biggest justifications for a spread under a touchdown here likely stems from a Week 2 game between these rivals, where the Cowboys hardly escaped with a 27-23 victory. Keep in mind, though, Ezekiel Elliott had yet to emerge as one of the best backs in the league, and it was Dak Prescott's second game of his pro career.

How the times have changed. Prescott isn't the same player, having now completed 67.7 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to two interceptions while receiving notable praise from all areas, including this note provided by NFL on ESPN:

That game was also only one of three times the Dallas defense has allowed 23 or more points on the season. Dallas only permits 84.4 rushing yards per game to rank third in the league and sits fifth at 18.7 points allowed.

This isn't meant to suggest the 6-3-1 Redskins don't stand any chance at all. But a tie, a win against Minnesota by six points and a blowout of the odd, careening 4-6 Green Bay Packers doesn't inspire much confidence. 

If Washington can't get its ground game going, Kirk Cousins will post another one-touchdown, one-interception performance like he did in the loss in Week 2. Keep in mind Thursday's game also goes down in Dallas this time, yet another in a long list of hints suggesting this one belongs to the Cowboys by a comfortable margin.

Prediction: Cowboys 30-17

Pittsburgh (-3) at Indianapolis

It says much about the Indianapolis Colts that the 5-5 Pittsburgh Steelers, first place in the AFC North, already have an advantage in the spread on the road.

Some of it has to do with the Indianapolis defense, which ranks 26th while allowing an average of 27.3 points per game. Ranking 32nd (284.5 yards per game) against the pass and 24th (113.1 yards per game) against the rush helps, too.

More than anything, though, this has to do with the question mark surrounding Andrew Luck. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Colts might trot out Scott Tolzien on a short week:

Tolzien is one of the more capable backups in the league, but asking him to compensate for a miserable defense against Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers is like asking for holiday leftovers to last more than a few days—it isn't happening.

Big Ben, when healthy, has been his usual self with 20 touchdowns to seven interceptions. It's the same theme for Le'Veon Bell, who—when actually on the field—averages 4.5 yards per carry with two scores. Antonio Brown needs 93 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark on the season and has already scored seven times. 

This outlook might have had a different theme if the Colts had Luck under center. After all, the Steelers only managed to snap a four-game skid in Week 11 thanks to a game against the Cleveland Browns. 

Instead of a trap game, this looks like a catalyst Pittsburgh can use to pull away in the AFC North.

Prediction: Steelers 34-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.