Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for Sunday's Games, Odds Guide, Over/Under Tips

Week 11 could turn out to be the most difficult yet for NFL bettors.

The opener between the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football says it all. The hosts scored a 23-20 win but spent most of the week favored by about four points, and the over/under floated at 52.

More tightropes exist throughout the rest of the slate. The biggest spreads only go as high as about seven points and aren't so easy, while the smallest might as well be even.

Below, let's take a look at the full slate of odds from Las Vegas and nail down predictions for each.

NFL Week 11 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Chicago at N.Y. Giants	NYG (-7.5)	47.5	NYG 27-17
Arizona at Minnesota	ARI (-1.5)	41	ARI 21-14
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL (-7)	45	DAL 30-17
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	53	TEN 23-20
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN (-4)	45.5	CIN 24-20
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT (-9)	49	PIT 34-17
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET (-7)	47	DET 27-14
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC (-7.5)	45	KC 30-21
Miami at Los Angeles	MIA (-2)	40.5	MIA 23-21
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA (-7)	44.5	SEA 24-14
New England at San Francisco	NE (-14)	51.5	NE 34-13
Green Bay at Washington	WAS (-3)	50.5	GB 24-20
Houston at Oakland (MNF)	OAK (-6.5)	46	OAK 27-20

Chicago at N.Y. Giants (-7.5)

Simms' Hidden Truth: Chicago Bears' Leonard Floyd Is 'More Athletic Aldon Smith'

Here is one of the more interesting and bigger lines of the week.

Does a 6-3 New York Giants team on a four-game tear easily swat away a 2-7 Chicago Bears team, or do the Bears show up big like they did in an upset of the Minnesota Vikings back in Week 8?

Best to stick with the home team here. The Bears pulled off the mentioned upset when quarterback Jay Cutler returned from injury. He tanked the week after, though, throwing one score against two interceptions in a 36-10 blowout at the hands of the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While the Chicago defense gets healthier with guys such as Pernell McPhee back in the fold, the offense keeps getting worse—star wideout Alshon Jeffery just received a four-game ban.

New York doesn't have any major problems of note. Eli Manning only has 15 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, but one wouldn't know it with the way the team keeps winning games. The offense has scored 21 or more points in three of its last four wins.

Manning doesn't do it alone, thanks to his defense. The unit only allows an average of 20.4 points per game and all of 92.1 rushing yards per game, which will force Cutler to the air often while down his best option. On the road, such a situation begs owners to take the Giants.

Prediction: Giants 27-17

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-4)

It is understandable if bettors look at this line and have a knee-jerk reaction to roll with the Cincinnati Bengals over the Buffalo Bills and move on to the next one.

After all, Cincinnati has been a staple of the playoffs for years and, at this point last year, was easily on the way. Just don't say that to head coach Marvin Lewis.

"You don't get qualifiers for that, though," Lewis said, according to STATS LLC (via ESPN.com). "You don't get to play from the green tees because of the past. We have to play back from the championship tees and move forward."

This year? Cincinnati is only 3-5-1, a tie and a loss coming over its last two outings. So no, a game against 4-5 Buffalo isn't the easiest thing in the world.

After all, the Bills boast the versatile Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, who has 10 touchdowns to three interceptions and another four scores on the ground. The Cincinnati defense hasn't resembled past units, which explains it coughing up 116.8 rushing yards per game. Combine Taylor with LeSean McCoy, and Buffalo seems to have an advantage here.

Still, Buffalo has lost three in a row. Historically speaking, the team doesn't do so well against the Bengals. Sal Capaccio of WGR 550 helped illustrate the point:

The Buffalo defense has allowed 31 or more points in two of its last three outings. Lining up against A.J. Green and a strong cast of supporting weapons won't prove simple on the road, especially with tight end Tyler Eifert healthy and ready to demand attention.

This is one of those games where everything hovers close to what Las Vegas prescribes, but bettors should feel comfortable with the Bengals.

Prediction: Bengals 24-20

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-7.5)

Can Kansas City Chiefs Defense Shut Down Buccaneers in Week 11 Matchup?

Those Buccaneers got a mention earlier for partially bad reasons. Now the team has a line here that creates one of the easiest betting opportunities of the week.

Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has two wins. Sounds good, but one came against two-win Chicago and another against the one-win San Francisco 49ers. Jameis Winston has done what he can with 19 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, but he's backed by a ground game averaging 3.7 yards per carry and a defense that allows 26.9 points per game.

It's all bad news against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that sits on a 7-2 mark with five wins in a row and 10 wins in a row at home.

The offense doesn't ask quarterback Alex Smith to do much because the ground game has Spencer Ware leading the way at 572 yards on five yards per carry. More than anything, the defense allowing 18.7 points per game while picking off 13 passes helps the Chiefs control games.

Now 17-2 over their last 19 regular-season games, the Chiefs use an opportunistic defense and a ball-control offense to grind down most opponents. Tampa Bay, a team that can hardly move past bad teams of late, will merely be the latest.

While this serves as a tale of two franchises heading in opposite directions, it also makes for one of the most lucrative lines of the week.

Prediction: Chiefs 30-21

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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