Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two teams coming off wins in Week 10 as underdogs will square off in Kansas City on Sunday as the Chiefs (7-2) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) as solid home favorites.

Kansas City upset the Carolina Panthers 20-17 as a three-point road dog last Sunday, while Tampa Bay routed the Chicago Bears 36-10 as a 2.5-point home dog to break a two-game losing streak.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.6-16.9 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers have managed to win two in a row only once previously this season, but both of those consecutive victories took place on the road. Like the Chiefs, Tampa also won at Carolina 17-14 in the Week 5 Monday night game, and the Panthers were known to have a strong home-field advantage before their struggles this season.

Regardless, the Bucs should not be intimidated to play at Kansas City, going 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the past four meetings. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six Week 11 games.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games, are riding an impressive 11-game winning streak against teams with losing records and have also won six in a row during the month of November (5-1 ATS). They look to be the most dangerous team in the AFC West right now as long as quarterback Alex Smith can stay healthy. Smith returned to action in last week's win over Carolina and was efficient enough to lead the offense after dealing with a head injury.

And while Tampa Bay will certainly be confident following a big win last week, the team might be overconfident. The Bucs are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 games after winning as underdogs.

Smart pick

Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has had a difficult time when playing good defenses this season, and Kansas City's defense will be ready for him on Sunday. After a late-game interception of Cam Newton helped set up the game-winning field goal last week for the Chiefs, Winston will have a hard time against a good secondary.

Look for Kansas City to put together another defensive masterpiece and cover against Tampa.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone over in the Buccaneers' last three games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.