Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions (5-4) head into this Week 11 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) off their bye week as co-leaders in the NFC North and solid home favorites.

The Lions have benefited from the struggles of both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, who were the preseason favorites to win the division and are riding four- and three-game losing streaks, respectively.

Point spread: The Lions opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.6-18.3 Lions (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Like the Vikings, the Jaguars have also lost four in a row, although that skid is not nearly as surprising. Jacksonville has been far more competitive in its last two games, though, losing by a combined eight points to the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, two more division leaders.

You can make an argument that Detroit is worse than either of them, and the Lions have also struggled with a 2-12 mark straight up in their last 14 games versus AFC South opponents.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The favored team is 5-0 SU and against the spread in the last five meetings between these teams, and this favorite might be getting its best defensive player back on the field for the first time since Week 1.

The Lions are hoping linebacker DeAndre Levy can play after practicing Wednesday for the first time in nine weeks, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com, and his mere presence should be a big boost for them, along with the fact that they have a good shot to win the division.

Detroit has won three straight at home since falling to the Tennessee Titans 16-15 in Week 2 and played much better overall after losing to the Chicago Bears 17-14 as three-point road chalk back in Week 4.

Smart pick

The Lions are a much better team than the Jaguars, who are just 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after losing as favorites. With two historically bad franchises here, Detroit is trending up now, while Jacksonville continues to drop down despite higher expectations going into 2016.

The Lions have improved with head coach Jim Caldwell on the hot seat, something that obviously cannot be said for the Jags with Gus Bradley. Look for Detroit to roll past Jacksonville with an easy double-digit home victory.

Betting trends

The favored team is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

The total has gone over in the Jaguars' last four games against the Lions.

The Jaguars are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after losing as favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.