NFL Predictions Week 11: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

Those who enjoy the thrills of upset picks didn't see the NFL do them any favors in Week 10.

Other than the Green Bay Packers letting their season slip away with a loss to the Tennessee Titans, every other result was expected or shrug-worthy.

That changes in Week 11. With a few divisional contests on tap, starting with Thursday Night Football between the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers, it is clear from the onset that bettors have more options this week.

The trick is making the right selections. Below, let's take a look at the entire slate before analyzing three of the matchups bettors might look at the hardest.

NFL Week 11 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
New Orleans at Carolina (TNF)	CAR -4.5	52	NO 30-27
Chicago at N.Y. Giants	NYG -6	47.5	NYG 27-17
Arizona at Minnesota	Even	41	ARI 21-14
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL -7	45	DAL 30-17
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND -3.5	53	TEN 23-20
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN -4	45.5	CIN 24-20
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -8.5	49	PIT 34-17
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET -6.5	47	DET 27-14
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC -7.5	45	KC 30-21
Miami at Los Angeles	Even	40.5	MIA 23-21
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA -4.5	44.5	SEA 24-14
New England at San Francisco	NE -14	51.5	NE 34-13
Green Bay at Washington	WAS -3	50.5	GB 24-20
Houston at Oakland (MNF)	OAK -3.5	46	OAK 27-20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

It's funny seeing the team responsible for Green Bay's fall in the intro now sit as an underdog.

Bettors know what to do. Those uncomfortable with the matchup will point out that the Indianapolis Colts took down the Titans 34-26 in Week 7. True, and it was a thrilling ride—Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota combined for five touchdowns and no interceptions, and Tennessee's DeMarco Murray rushed for 107 yards and a score.

Given the play of both quarterbacks and the fact that Tennessee had to settle for a field goal twice, the contest was even closer than the score suggested.

Tennessee isn't for lack of understanding where it needs to improve, as head coach Mike Mularkey told Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official website:

This is where last week comes into play. Slowly but surely, Tennessee's defense showed signs of life against the Packers. The unit sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and limited him to a pair of touchdowns and interceptions, and Mariota imposed his will with four scores and no turnovers.

With Tennessee already showing it can run all over the Indianapolis defense while Mariota picks it apart, bettors have to love the defensive unit rounding into form. If the defense can do enough to fluster Rodgers, it seems worthwhile to suggest it could do the same to a familiar opponent such as Luck.

Look for the Titans to turn field goals into scores this time while the defense does enough to steal a win.

Prediction: Titans 23, Colts 20

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Here is a popular upset bid bettors might like. 

Don't. Hype around the Philadelphia Eagles has returned, thanks to a Week 10 win against the Atlanta Falcons. But don't forget that Philadelphia won its first three games and then went on to lose four of five after the NFL seemed to figure out rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.

PYds/G (rank)	RYds/G (rank)	Pts/G (rank)
241.7 (10th)	96.8 (9th)	17.6 (2nd)

Do bettors want to take a chance on Wentz lighting up the Seattle Seahawks defense on the road?

Seattle's defensive ranks in the table say it all. Perhaps the most interesting question about the entire week's slate of games came from ESPN.com's Adam Caplan:

Wentz has only thrown two touchdowns since Week 6 and didn't throw one at all against the Falcons, as Ryan Mathews rushed for two touchdowns.

On paper, Seattle won't have many problems with Mathews. This isn't meant to suggest a Russell Wilson-led offense will have the easiest time with an Eagles defense allowing 17.8 points per game, but it does sound like the unit will have running back Thomas Rawls back in the fold.

The Eagles might have had a better outlook if Seattle hadn't flustered Tom Brady into no scores and an interception while taking down the New England Patriots in Week 10.

An upset pick would make plenty of sense here if the game took place in Philadelphia. But it doesn't, and rest assured the Seattle defense has closely watched what has stunted Wentz this year and will employ similar tactics to secure a win.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 14

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-3)

It might seem like asking a lot for bettors to turn around and forgive the Packers, rolling with them against the Washington Redskins on the road.

But desperation is an incredible motivator. Green Bay has lost three in a row, but two have come by five points or fewer. The season isn't fully lost yet, not with the two teams in front of the Packers in the NFC North boasting 5-4 records.

It's not like Washington has been the most consistent team for bettors, either. At 5-3-1, the team's last three games say it all—a loss, tie and win. The loss came against a 5-4 Detroit Lions team, the tie against a 3-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals team and the win against the flailing Minnesota Vikings, also at 5-4.

Green Bay's defense allows only 85.3 rushing yards per game, which is fourth in the league. In other words, bettors might pick from an Aaron Rodgers-Kirk Cousins showdown here.

That's not so difficult, is it? Cousins has thrown 14 scores to seven interceptions this year, with the prospects of operating a one-dimensional offense not providing a bright outlook. Considering the Washington defense just gave up 307 yards and two scores to Minnesota's Sam Bradford, it's not hard to see who has an advantage under center.

In a favorable matchup with everything on the line, the Packers look like a solid underdog bet here. The line might move to reflect this, so bettors will want to grab it while it lasts.

Prediction: Packers 24, Redskins 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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