Week 11 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections

NFL bettors don't get a bye week.

Keeping up with the league can take its toll on the strongest of bettors. After a tough Monday Night Football encounter between the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants, bettors have to turn around and prep for a divisional encounter on the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football on short notice.

Get this—the Giants won 21-20 and were favored by two points for most of the week. Kudos to oddmakers for getting it right; apologies to bettors who landed on the wrong side of the coin flip.

In an effort to put the stressful week behind you and lend a helping hand, we'll take a look at the full Week 11 slate and focus on some of the easier encounters to call.

NFL Week 11 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
New Orleans at Carolina (TNF)	CAR -4.5	52	NO 30-27
Chicago at N.Y. Giants	NYG -6	47.5	NYG 27-17
Arizona at Minnesota	E	41	ARI 21-14
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL -7	45	DAL 30-17
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND -3.5	53	TEN 23-20
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN -4	45.5	CIN 24-20
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -8.5	49	PIT 34-17
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET -6.5	47	DET 27-14
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC -7.5	45	KC 30-21
Miami at L.A. Rams	E	40.5	MIA 23-21
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA -4.5	44.5	SEA 24-14
New England at San Francisco	NE -14	51.5	NE 34-13
Green Bay at Washington	WAS -3	50.5	GB 24-20
Houston at Oakland (MNF)	OAK -3.5	46	OAK 27-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

New Orleans at Carolina (-4.5)

The Thursday game between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints isn't as bad as it sounds.

The Panthers happen to be the cellar-dwellers in the NFC South this year. Gone is the once-proud defense, which now coughs up an average of 25.1 points per game to rank 23rd in the league. Ditto for MVP-caliber play by Cam Newton, who has thrown 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions while taking 23 sacks.

The Saints can't relate. Despite having a 4-5 record, New Orleans is second in the division behind 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions from Drew Brees. Not only did the Saints show poise with an upset of the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8, but they also lost on a last-second score to the Denver Broncos in Week 10.

Head coach Sean Payton doesn't sound too concerned about the crushing loss, as captured by the Saints' official Twitter account:

One other thing—the Saints took down Carolina earlier in the season.

In Week 6, Brees racked up four touchdowns and 465 yards in the 41-38 win, with all four scores going to different targets. Newton accounted for three scores, but he averaged only 6.9 yards per completion, and the offense rushed for an average of 3.8 yards while going 3-of-11 on third down.

New Orleans has improved since the win, playing contenders tough. Carolina only broke a four-game skid by beating downtrodden Arizona and Los Angeles teams. Look for the Saints to get the road win.

Prediction: Saints 30-27

Baltimore at Dallas (-7)

The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys are two of the hottest teams in the realm of power rankings. 

Dallas should sit at the top of most power rankings after posting eight straight wins, including a casual 35-30 dismissal of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10. Backed by a defense that is allowing only 18.9 points per game, Dak Prescott now has 14 touchdowns to two interceptions, while Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for 1,005 yards and nine scores.

Baltimore has put together a nice little stretch as well and looks like a riser. Now first in the AFC North thanks to wins against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, the Ravens have turned many heads with a defense that allows only 17.8 points per game.

Though both teams look great, the disparity isn't too hard to figure out. Before beating a 4-5 Pittsburgh team and bullying the NFL's winless team, the Ravens had lost four in a row, losing to a mix of quality competition such as Washington and iffy teams such as both of those hailing from New York.

In fact, Baltimore's other three wins were against Buffalo, Cleveland again and Jacksonville. The Ravens haven't seen anything like Dallas and its historic duo, as the Cowboys' official Twitter account described:

Baltimore might look good on defense, but it isn't slowing those two. The offense with Joe Flacco (nine touchdowns and nine interceptions) and a ground game that averages 3.5 yards per carry isn't keeping up, either.

Look for Dallas to jump out ahead and ride an elite defense to the win.

Prediction: Cowboys 30-17

Jacksonville at Detroit (-6.5)

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Easy enough, right?

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't beating the Detroit Lions. Not only does the bottom team in the AFC South allow 26.6 points per game, but quarterback Blake Bortles looks like he has regressed. Plus, no Jacksonville rusher has gained 300 yards on the ground.

As such, it's no surprise that the Jaguars have just two wins on the season and ride a four-loss streak into a road encounter with the Lions.

Those Lions sit in first place in the NFC North and have won four of their last five games. Quarterback Matthew Stafford boasts 18 touchdowns to five interceptions while leading an attack that looks better than it did a year ago despite the loss of Calvin Johnson.

The only way to slow this rolling Lions offense is to create turnovers. As NFL Research recorded, though, Jacksonville hasn't done this well:

In fact, Stafford has thrown multiple interceptions in only one game this year.

The efficient offense also has Detroit's defense looking solid in good situations, allowing all of 22.9 points per game. Jacksonville has its moments of strong-looking offense and should in this game.

It just won't be enough, though.

Look for the Lions to cruise after jumping out ahead. Bortles will turn it on late to make it look more respectable, but expect increased rumblings about a quarterback controversy.

Prediction: Lions 27-14

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.