Early Odds for Top Prospects Who Will Battle for 2017 MLB Rookie of the Year
The 2016 MLB Rookie of the Year awards were handed out Monday night, making this the perfect time to look ahead to who might make up next year's crop of candidates for the honor.
Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was a unanimous selection in the National League, while Detroit Tigers pitcher Michael Fulmer took home the American League award, per BBWAA.com.
So who's next?
Being an early Rookie of the Year candidate is as much about opportunity as it is about talent and upside.
First baseman Josh Bell (PIT), left fielder Andrew Benintendi (BOS), starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (PIT), right fielder Aaron Judge (NYY), center fielder Manuel Margot (SD), right fielder Hunter Renfroe (SD), starting pitcher Alex Reyes (STL), shortstop Dansby Swanson (ATL) and first baseman Dan Vogelbach (SEA) are among the rookies who appear to have a clear path to significant playing time in 2017.
They're by no means the only candidates, though.
As we saw this past season, it only took two months of action for New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez to earn a place among the AL finalists.
With all of that in mind, what follows are some early odds on the top prospects who will battle for Rookie of the Year honors in 2017.
AL Dark Horses
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SS Franklin Barreto, Oakland Athletics (Odds: 50/1)
| AA/AAA | 525 | .284/.342/.422 | 136 | 25 | 11 | 53 | 65 | 30 |
The prize of the Josh Donaldson trade, Franklin Barreto still has a chance to make that deal look significantly less lopsided for Oakland.
The 20-year-old may eventually wind up at second base, but either way it's unlikely incumbent middle infielders Jed Lowrie or Marcus Semien will stand in his way once he's deemed ready. With just four games in Triple-A under his belt, he may not see more than a September call-up, but if he arrives sooner than expected, he'll be one to watch.
RHP Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics (Odds: 50/1)
| AA/AAA | 7/4 | 0-0 | 2.25 | 1.06 | 3 | 22 | 16.0 |
Frankie Montas missed significant time last season following rib resection surgery and then an oblique injury, but he still possesses the triple-digit heat that has long made him a favorite of scouts.
With a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League (14.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 9 K), he could finally be ready to settle in at the MLB level. Whether it's as a starter or back-end reliever remains to be seen, but he'll get a long look this spring.
1B Rowdy Tellez, Toronto Blue Jays (Odds: 50/1)
| AA | 514 | .297/.387/.530 | 130 | 29 | 23 | 81 | 71 | 4 |
With Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders all facing free agency, the Blue Jays will have a new-look offense in 2017.
They've already signed Kendrys Morales to take over as the new DH and could still pursue an outfielder, but Rowdy Tellez is also capable of providing an in-house boost. The 6'4", 220-pound slugger has an advanced approach and big-time pop, and a strong start in Triple-A could earn him an early promotion.
LHP Matt Strahm, Kansas City Royals (Odds: 40/1)
| AA | 22/18 | 3-8 | 3.43 | 1.22 | 23 | 107 | 102.1 |
| MLB | 21/0 | 2-2 | 1.23 | 1.09 | 11 | 30 | 22.0 |
Matt Strahm filled the glaring need for a left-handed arm in the Royals bullpen last season, but his future may still be in the starting rotation.
The left-hander still needs to further refine his changeup and smooth out his mechanics if he's going to make it as a starter, but with at least one spot open in the Kansas City rotation and the team looking to trim payroll, he'll likely be stretched out this spring.
OF Tyler O'Neill, Seattle Mariners (Odds: 30/1)
| AA | 575 | .293/.374/.508 | 144 | 26 | 24 | 102 | 68 | 12 |
If the season started today, the Mariners would trot out some combination of Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Ben Gamel and Stefen Romero as the starting outfield.
While they could certainly still add another outfielder during the offseason, they won't do anything to block top prospect Tyler O'Neill. All signs point to him debuting at some point in 2017 after he made significant strides in his strikeout (26.1 percent) and walk (10.8 percent) rates.
1B Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles (Odds: 25/1)
| AA/AAA | 611 | .282/.357/.458 | 154 | 26 | 20 | 68 | 78 | 2 |
| MLB | 15 | .357/.400/1.071 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
A solid second-tier prospect in a relatively thin Baltimore Orioles system, Trey Mancini exploded onto the scene last season with three home runs in five games following a late September promotion.
The 24-year-old never hit more than 21 home runs in a season in the minors, so he's not the 30-homer threat he looked like in his brief debut. However, if the Orioles don't sign anyone to replace Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez, he could see regular at-bats as the primary DH.
Others to Watch
RHP Zack Burdi (CWS), RHP J.T. Chargois (MIN), 3B/OF Hunter Dozier (KC), RHP Carson Fulmer (CWS), LHP Adalberto Mejia (MIN), LHP Ryan Merritt (CLE), 3B Renato Nunez (OAK), 1B/OF Matt Olson (OAK), RHP David Paulino (HOU), C Chance Sisco (BAL)
AL Contenders (Pitchers)
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RHP Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays (Odds: 20/1)
| A+/AA | 20/20 | 7-3 | 2.34 | 1.03 | 25 | 117 | 115.1 |
Assuming the Rays pull the trigger on flipping one of Drew Smyly or Jake Odorizzi before the offseason is over, Brent Honeywell could be the latest homegrown arm to step into the Tampa Bay rotation.
The 21-year-old was 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts following a midseason promotion to Double-A, and a similar showing in his first taste of Triple-A action could put him in the MLB rotation by midseason.
RHP Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics (Odds: 18/1)
| AAA | 28/22 | 11-6 | 4.31 | 1.08 | 39 | 155 | 135.2 |
| MLB | 5/5 | 2-0 | 2.15 | 0.82 | 4 | 23 | 29.1 |
Jharel Cotton was not quite as highly regarded as Grant Holmes and Frankie Montas—the two other pitchers acquired in the deal that sent him from the Dodgers to the Athletics—but he was the first to make an impact in Oakland.
He looked great in five big-league starts to close out the season, including allowing just two hits and one run over 6.1 innings of work in his MLB debut. The 24-year-old will get every chance to break camp with a rotation spot, so he has opportunity on his side.
RHP Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers (Odds: 15/1)
| A+/AA/AAA | 55 | 30 | 1.51 | 0.80 | 17 | 78 | 53.2 |
If incumbent closer Francisco Rodriguez and his $6 million salary wind up as a casualty of the Tigers' cost-cutting measures this offseason, prospect Joe Jimenez could step into the closer's role in Detroit.
Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2013, Jimenez has been one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in the game over the past two seasons. With an upper-90s fastball, wipeout slider and good command, he has the tools to thrive in the ninth inning.
AL Contenders (Position Players)
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IF Yulieski Gurriel, Houston Astros (Odds: 20/1)
| A+/AA/AAA | 61 | .250/.262/.429 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 0 |
| MLB | 137 | .262/.292/.385 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 1 |
Yulieski Gurriel, 32, signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal July 16 after defecting from Cuba. He played 15 games in the minors to shake off some rust then made his Astros debut Aug. 21, seeing semi-regular playing time down the stretch.
With Alex Bregman settling in as the everyday third baseman, his at-bats will likely come at first base or as the designated hitter. He had a .997 OPS with 250 home runs and 1,018 RBI in 15 seasons in Cuba, so he has the offensive tools to make an impact.
OF Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians (Odds: 18/1)
| AA/AAA | 557 | .250/.365/.425 | 117 | 25 | 15 | 62 | 76 | 38 |
"Come spring training, I want to win a job," Bradley Zimmer told Bobby DeMuro of Today's Knuckleball. "I am going to go in there with a mindset that a spot is open, and I’m going to take it. I’ll build off what I’m doing here, go into spring training, and hopefully win a job in the big leagues."
The departure of Rajai Davis and the ongoing health concerns surrounding Michael Brantley may very well leave an open spot in the Cleveland outfield when spring training rolls around. If Zimmer can break camp with a starting gig, his odds would obviously increase.
1B Dan Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners (Odds: 18/1)
| AAA | 563 | .292/.417/.505 | 134 | 25 | 23 | 96 | 79 | 0 |
| MLB | 13 | .083/.154/.083 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the July trade that sent Mike Montgomery to the eventual World Series champs, Dan Vogelbach should be given every chance to replace Adam Lind as the left-handed hitting side of a first-base platoon in Seattle.
His advanced approach and plus raw power have yielded solid results every step of the way in the minors, and he could easily be a 20-homer, 75-RBI guy over 400 plate appearances with potential for more.
RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (Odds: 12/1)
| AAA | 410 | .270/.366/.489 | 95 | 18 | 19 | 65 | 62 | 5 |
| MLB | 95 | .179/.263/.345 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
Aaron Judge debuted with a bang in August, going 5-for-10 with a double and a pair of home runs over his first three games in Yankee pinstripes.
He hit just .135/.217/.230 and struck out 40 times in 83 plate appearances the rest of the way, so there's work to be done. Still, with his tremendous raw power and a clear path to playing time in right field, he has to be considered among the top AL candidates.
3B Yoan Moncada, Boston Red Sox (Odds: 9/1)
| A+/AA | 491 | .294/.407/.511 | 119 | 31 | 15 | 62 | 94 | 45 |
| MLB | 20 | .211/.250/.263 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
While Yoan Moncada has legitimate superstar potential, it was clear he would also benefit from some further seasoning when he struck out 12 times in 20 plate appearances following a September call-up.
The third-base position is up for grabs in Boston, with Travis Shaw and Pablo Sandoval once again positioned to battle it out for the starting job this spring. Expect Moncada to unseat them both by midseason, and perhaps sooner if he comes out of the gates strong.
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AL Front-Runner: LF Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
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2016 Stats
| A+/AA | 418 | .312/.378/.532 | 116 | 31 | 9 | 76 | 70 | 16 |
| MLB | 118 | .295/.359/.476 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 1 |
Odds: 7/1
Andrew Benintendi arrived in the majors a little over a year after being taken with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft, and he looked right at home from the start.
The former University of Arkansas standout debuted Aug. 2, and if not for a knee injury that cost him 20 games, he would have almost certainly surpassed rookie eligibility limits.
Instead, he'll enter the 2017 season with a firm grip on the starting left field job, an impressive showing over 118 plate appearances already under his belt and plenty of room for improvement going forward.
That's enough to make him the early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors, and if he did win he'd be the first Red Sox player to take home the award since Dustin Pedroia in 2007.
NL Dark Horses
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CF Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates (Odds: 50/1)
| A-/AA/AAA | 352 | .266/.333/.536 | 82 | 25 | 12 | 47 | 49 | 17 |
The impact Austin Meadows will have at the big-league level in 2017 is directly tied to whether there's any truth to the rumors that Andrew McCutchen is on the trade block, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
The Pirates challenged the 21-year-old Meadows last season, jumping him up to Triple-A after he hit .311/.365/.611 with 30 extra-base hits in 190 plate appearances in Double-A. He was a bit overmatched following the promotion, but a strong start to 2017 will leave him with little left to prove in the minors.
LHP Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds (Odds: 40/1)
| AA/AAA | 25/23 | 7-8 | 2.55 | 1.09 | 59 | 132 | 144.2 |
The Reds will enter spring training with four rotation spots going to Dan Straily, Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan and Homer Bailey, but the No. 5 starter job will be up for grabs.
Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed both saw MLB action in 2016, but it's Amir Garrett who has the highest ceiling among the team's young starters. Even if he doesn't win that spot out of camp, Garrett has the stuff to make a serious impact once he does arrive. That being said, it's not out of the question to think that won't happen until 2018 given the former basketball player's still-developing all-around game.
2B Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves (Odds: 30/1)
| AA/AAA | 618 | .292/.358/.420 | 161 | 33 | 6 | 53 | 83 | 30 |
Ozzie Albies turned heads last spring when he hit .371/.421/.486 over 38 plate appearances.
That was enough for the Braves to jump him over the High-A level, and he continued to impress with a .321/.391/.467 line in 82 games with Double-A Mississippi. His production dropped off with another promotion to Triple-A, but that was to be expected considering he's still just 19 years old.
All signs point to Albies joining Dansby Swanson in the middle of the Braves infield for the next decade, and he's put himself on the fast track by performing beyond his age.
CF Lewis Brinson, Milwaukee Brewers (Odds: 25/1)
| AA/AAA | 434 | .268/.305/.468 | 109 | 24 | 15 | 61 | 63 | 17 |
One of the breakout prospects of 2015 when he posted a 1.004 OPS with 31 doubles and 20 home runs, Lewis Brinson took a step back this past season against higher-level competition.
The five-tool talent that has long impressed scouts is still there, though, and he hit .382/.387/.618 with 13 extra-base hits in 93 plate appearances in Triple-A after coming to Milwaukee as part of the Jonathan Lucroy trade.
Keon Broxton and Kirk Nieuwenhuis will likely start the season in center field for the Brew Crew, but they won't stand in the way of Brinson once he's ready.
Others to Watch
C Jorge Alfaro (PHI), OF Harrison Bader (STL), LHP Ty Blach (SF), LHP Josh Hader (MIL), RHP Jeff Hoffman (COL), RHP Reynado Lopez (WAS), OF Roman Quinn (PHI), RHP Robert Stephenson (CIN), OF Raimel Tapia (COL), RHP Luke Weaver (STL), OF Nick Williams (PHI), OF Jesse Winker (CIN)
NL Contenders (Pitchers)
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RHP Jose De Leon, Los Angeles Dodgers (Odds: 20/1)
| AAA | 16/16 | 7-1 | 2.61 | 0.94 | 20 | 111 | 86.1 |
| MLB | 4/4 | 2-0 | 6.35 | 1.53 | 7 | 15 | 17.0 |
An ankle injury and shoulder inflammation sidelined Jose De Leon early in the 2016 season, but he picked up right where he left off upon returning and eventually made it to Los Angeles.
While his debut was a mixed bag, the future remains incredibly bright. His fastball-changeup-slider repertoire grades out as plus across the board, and he possesses legitimate No. 2 starter upside. It's unclear where he fits into the team's 2017 plans, but if he gets a chance, he has the talent to make an impact.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals (Odds: 18/1)
| AA/AAA | 22/22 | 6-5 | 2.97 | 1.28 | 44 | 116 | 115.1 |
| MLB | 6/4 | 0-1 | 6.75 | 1.78 | 12 | 11 | 21.1 |
The Nationals have a strong rotation in place with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez and Joe Ross set to make up the 2017 staff.
Lucas Giolito figures to push his way into that picture in the very near future after seeing his first taste of MLB action, and considering the health woes of Strasburg and Ross this past season, he'll be waiting in the wings if needed. There's legitimate ace potential here, it's all about opportunity and continued development.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates (Odds: 15/1)
| AA/AAA | 22/22 | 8-3 | 1.93 | 1.17 | 68 | 144 | 116.2 |
| MLB | 7/4 | 0-2 | 4.24 | 1.50 | 13 | 24 | 23.1 |
Few if any pitching prospects have better pure stuff than Tyler Glasnow. Now it's a matter of refining his command and repeating his mechanics if he's going to live up to his vast potential.
The 23-year-old dominated minor league hitters last season with a 1.93 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 116.2 innings of work, but his 5.2 BB/9 walk rate highlighted the work that still needs to be done. The Pirates will be relying on an incredibly young rotation in 2017, and a breakout from Glasnow would go a long way.
RHP Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals (Odds: 10/1)
| AAA | 14/14 | 2-3 | 4.96 | 1.45 | 32 | 93 | 65.1 |
| MLB | 12/5 | 4-1 | 1.57 | 1.22 | 23 | 52 | 46.0 |
Alex Reyes got a late start to the 2016 season while serving a 50-game suspension for marijuana use. He immediately showed why he's one of the game's elite pitching prospects upon returning, though, striking out 93 batters in 65.1 innings at the Triple-A level before getting the call to St. Louis.
He picked up four wins, a hold and a save and tallied three quality starts in his 12 total appearances, and while he was a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen, his future is still in the rotation. If he were a lock to make 25-30 starts in 2017, he'd be the NL favorite, but his 2017 role is still unclear at this point.
NL Contenders (Position Players)
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C Tom Murphy, Colorado Rockies (Odds: 20/1)
| AAA | 322 | .327/.361/.647 | 99 | 26 | 19 | 59 | 53 | 1 |
| MLB | 49 | .273/.347/.659 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 1 |
With veteran Nick Hundley departing in free agency, the door is wide open for Tom Murphy to seize the starting catching job for the Rockies.
He's always had the offensive game to make an impact, and steady improvements with the glove should allow him to stay in the crouch. The 25-year-old has earned 88 plate appearances with September call-ups the past two years, posting a .949 OPS with eight home runs and 22 RBI.
SS J.P. Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies (Odds: 15/1)
| AA/AAA | 551 | .250/.349/.339 | 118 | 19 | 7 | 43 | 63 | 12 |
J.P. Crawford looked like a safe bet to debut at some point in 2016, but a slow start in Triple-A coupled with a productive season from incumbent shortstop Freddy Galvis (20 HR, 67 RBI) delayed his arrival.
Realistically, the Phillies have no reason to rush their prized prospect, as they are still in the early stages of rebuilding. The 21-year-old is still supremely talented, though, and he should supplant Galvis by midseason in 2017.
1B Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates (Odds: 12/1)
| AAA | 484 | .295/.382/.468 | 124 | 23 | 14 | 60 | 57 | 3 |
| MLB | 152 | .273/.368/.406 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 0 |
All signs point to Josh Bell unseating John Jaso as the starting first baseman in Pittsburgh this coming season, even with Jaso still under contract for another year.
Bell should hit for power and average, although he is still working on turning his raw power into over-the-fence production. The switch-hitter had quite the debut for the Pirates last season, singling in his first at-bat and then launching a pinch-hit grand slam in his second.
CF Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres (Odds: 12/1)
| AAA | 566 | .304/.351/.426 | 157 | 21 | 6 | 55 | 98 | 30 |
| MLB | 37 | .243/.243/405 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
The prize of last offseasn's Craig Kimbrel trade, Manuel Margot has a clear path to the starting center field job in San Diego.
With good contact skills, the ability to draw a walk and plus speed he checks all the boxes of a prototypical leadoff hitter, and he also has terrific range and a passable arm defensively. He's as safe a bet as anyone in the 2017 rookie class to see 500-plus plate appearances, and that opportunity alone makes him one of the leading candidates in the NL side.
RF Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres (Odds: 12/1)
| AAA | 563 | .306/.336/.557 | 163 | 34 | 30 | 105 | 95 | 5 |
| MLB | 36 | .371/.389/.800 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 0 |
Hunter Renfroe is the prototypical right fielder with serious home run power and a cannon arm on defense.
The 24-year-old was the No. 13 overall pick in 2013 out of Mississippi State, and after a monster season in Triple-A, he has nothing left to prove in the minors. The deadline trade of Matt Kemp opened up the everyday right field job, and an impressive showing in 11 games down the stretch cemented his place in the Padres' lineup.
NL Front-Runner: SS Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| A+/AA | 470 | .275/.362/.426 | 113 | 25 | 9 | 55 | 68 | 13 |
| MLB | 145 | .302/.361/.442 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 3 |
Odds: 8/1
The Atlanta Braves knew they were getting a talented player when they acquired Dansby Swanson—the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft—from the Arizona Diamondbacks, part of the return package for right-hander Shelby Miller.
However, few expected him to make much of an impact in 2016.
Instead, the 22-year-old showed enough between High-A and Double-A that he was promoted to the majors Aug. 17 and given the starting shortstop job in place of a struggling Erick Aybar.
Hitting primarily out of the No. 8 spot in the order, Swanson tallied 129 at-bats in 2016, leaving him one shy of exhausting his rookie status and leaving him eligible for Rookie of the Year honors next season.
Chances are he'll move up to the No. 2 spot in the order before too long, where his polished all-around offensive game will fit perfectly behind Ender Inciarte and ahead of Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp.
A good average, plenty of run-scoring chances and solid defensive play at a premium position make him the early front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year honors.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
Full Odds Overview
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American League
- LF Andrew Benintendi, BOS (7/1)
- 3B Yoan Moncada, BOS (9/1)
- RF Aaron Judge, NYY (12/1)
- RP Joe Jimenez, DET (15/1)
- SP Jharel Cotton, OAK (18/1)
- 1B Dan Vogelbach, SEA (18/1)
- CF Bradley Zimmer, CLE (18/1)
- SP Brent Honeywell, TB (20/1)
- 1B/3B Yulieski Gurriel, HOU (20/1)
- 1B Trey Mancini, BAL (25/1)
- CF Tyler O'Neill, SEA (30/1)
- SP/RP Matt Strahm, KC (40/1)
- 1B Rowdy Tellez, TOR (50/1)
- SP Frankie Montas, OAK (50/1)
- SS Franklin Barreto, OAK (50/1)
National League
- SS Dansby Swanson, ATL (8/1)
- SP Alex Reyes, STL (10/1)
- RF Hunter Renfroe, SD (12/1)
- CF Manuel Margot, SD (12/1)
- 1B Josh Bell, PIT (12/1)
- SS J.P. Crawford, PHI (15/1)
- SP Tyler Glasnow, PIT (15/1)
- SP Lucas Giolito, WAS (18/1)
- SP Jose De Leon, LAD (20/1)
- C Tom Murphy, COL (20/1)
- CF Lewis Brinson, MIL (25/1)
- 2B Ozzie Albies, ATL (30/1)
- SP Amir Garrett, CIN (40/1)
- CF Austin Meadows, PIT (50/1)
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