Week 10 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

Unlike most situations in the real world, NFL bettors can still win big after procrastinating big.

Week 9 might have lulled bettors into a daze with easy matchup after easy matchup. The upsets were few and far between there, meaning those who played it safe came out ahead going into the second half of the season.

It's time for bettors to break out of the mini-hibernation. Week 10 isn't anywhere close to as simple, though oddsmakers in Las Vegas have still left some avenues to success for those who look hard enough.

Ideally, bettors would monitor lines the entire week, picking and choosing points of attack like a patient running back. Alas, the speedster can break away for a touchdown at the last minute, too.

Here's a look at the remaining Week 10 lines.

NFL Week 10 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Houston at Jacksonville	JAC -1.5	42.5	HOU 28-14
Kansas City at Carolina	CAR -3	44	KC 27-20
L.A. Rams at N.Y. Jets	NYJ -2.5	42	LA 20-17
Atlanta at Philadelphia	ATL -2	50.5	ATL 30-27
Green Bay at Tennessee	GB -3	49	GB 24-20
Minnesota at Washington	WAS -2.5	42	MIN 23-20
Chicago at Tampa Bay	CHI -2.5	45	CHI 27-17
Denver at New Orleans	NO -3	49	DEN 26-24
Miami at San Diego	SD -4.5	49	MIA 27-24
San Francisco at Arizona	ARI -12.5	48.5	ARI 27-14
Dallas at Pittsburgh	PIT -1.5	50	DAL 28-20
Seattle at New England	NE -8	48.5	NE 28-20
Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants (MNF)	E	47	NYG 27-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Atlanta (-2) at Philadelphia

Bettors looking to cash in on a surefire over/under placement have to look no further than an encounter between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles.

	PCT	YDS	TD	INT
Matt Ryan	69.6	2980	23	4
Carson Wentz	64.4	1890	9	5

This one sits at an eye-catching 50.5 points thanks to the efficiency of both sides. Atlanta has Matt Ryan under center and looking like a possible MVP candidate. Philadelphia has an unexpectedly potent offense under the guidance of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz that would make Chip Kelly blush.

The recent disparity between these two sides isn't hard to see. Atlanta has won two games a row and had a prior four-game streak. The two most recent losses came at Seattle by all of two points and an overtime encounter against San Diego.

Unfortunately for the hosts, the NFL has figured out Wentz. Since a Week 4 bye, the Eagles have lost four of five and the rookie has thrown four touchdowns to five interceptions.

This all combines to explain the spread. Atlanta might be the road team, but Ryan has led the Falcons to a 4-1 record away from home this year. He's going against a defense that has collapsed in recent weeks, allowing 28 or more points in two consecutive games.

Atlanta's defense has done the same, meaning the best choice is the over while the Falcons pull through.

Prediction: Falcons 30-27

Green Bay (-3) at Tennessee

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

It's easy to see why the Green Bay Packers might not have a bigger favored stance here against the 4-5 Tennessee Titans.

After all, the Packers have lost two games in a row, dropping a contest to the Falcons before suffering an upset at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts.

Even so, bettors should expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to kick off a three-game stretch away from home with a win against a Titans team sporting losses in two of its last three outings, the only win coming against the miserable Jacksonville Jaguars.

After a rough start ruined Green Bay's chances in Week 9, head coach Mike McCarthy isn't worried about his guys learning from the hiccup.

"We'll play with great energy Sunday. That's not a concern of mine," McCarthy said, according to ESPN.com. "It's a road game, so we have that challenge. Our guys will bring it. We're just paying attention to what matters and it's about improvement. We have to learn from last week."

It's fun to focus on the quarterbacks in a matchup like this. Rodgers has broken out of an early-season slump to boast 2,039 yards and 20 touchdowns to five interceptions. Marcus Mariota still flashes like one of the league's next great players and has 2,187 yards and 17 touchdowns to eight interceptions.

Bettors, though, need to look at strengths. The most notable here is the fact Tennessee relies on a ground game led by DeMarco Murray, which averages 4.8 yards per carry. Green Bay, though, only allows 75.8 rushing yards per game, ranked second.

Through a major strength and jumping out ahead, Tennessee won't be able to lean on its strength to pull off an upset.

Prediction: Packers 24-20

Miami at San Diego (-4.5)

A battle between elite backs campaigning for "elite" status makes for a good time.

The San Diego Chargers have Melvin Gordon leading the way with his 768 yards and nine scores, while the Miami Dolphins boast the surprising Jay Ajayi, a guy cruising with 646 yards and six scores, 529 and four coming over his last three games alone.

Bettors should expect big games from both. They're friends who spent time together over the offseason, meaning a little more motivation for each guy Sunday.

"I’m always checking on Melvin every week, just to see how he does," Ajayi said, according to ESPN.com's Eric D.Williams. "I’m so proud of him to come back from last year, where he wasn’t able to score a touchdown and a lot of people were starting to write him off a little bit."

San Diego has won three of four behind Gordon's strong play. The span includes a 1-1 mark against the familiar Denver Broncos, an overtime win against Atlanta and a causal game against Tennessee.

Miami, though, has cruised to three straight behind Ajayi's epic output. The dynamic is something the Dolphins have terribly missed, hence quarterback Ryan Tannehill hitting on a streak of three games without an interception while the offense scored 30, 28 and 27 points.

With balance suddenly achieved, look for the Dolphins to make it four in a row, even on the road, against a defense allowing an average of 27.4 points per game. For now, Ajayi gets the bragging rights.

Prediction: Dolphins 27-24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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