1 Critical Mistake Each MLB Team Must Avoid Making in 2016-17 Offseason
Mistakes are inevitable. Everyone makes them, including general managers of MLB teams.
They come in all shapes and sizes. From overpaying for a free agent to trades general managers wish they hadn't made to ignoring a glaring need on the roster, errors occur far more often than even the most honest baseball insider cares to admit.
In some cases, those mistakes are even deals that general managers didn't make, overvaluing a prospect who ultimately doesn't pan out, while the veteran piece they were potentially going to trade for would have been the difference between a playoff berth and watching the postseason from their living room.
What follows is a look at the one critical mistake each of MLB's 30 franchises needs to avoid this offseason.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not trying to extend Jean Segura
Rebuilding the bullpen will be one of new general manager Mike Hazen's first tasks with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The club needs a new closer, at least one setup man and a handful of middle relievers.
But while he's doing that, Hazen should also be working on a long-term extension with second baseman Jean Segura.
Acquired from Milwaukee last winter, the 26-year-old was a revelation atop the Diamondbacks lineup, hitting .319 with a .368 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, 33 stolen bases and a National League-leading 203 hits.
Under team control through 2018, Segura is only going to get more expensive the closer he gets to free agency. By working out a long-term pact now, the Diamondbacks could buy out his final two years of arbitration and, more importantly, keep him off the free-agent market at the age of 28.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Continuing to hoard prospects
A strong finish (18-10), a new ballpark and a full season with Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp and Dansby Swanson in the lineup are just a few of the reasons for optimism in Atlanta. The temptation to make a splashy move is strong. Something like, I don't know, trading for Chris Sale?
Or Sonny Gray. Or Chris Archer.
According to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball and MLB.com's Mark Bowman, all three of those pitchers are on the team's radar. And as both scribes noted, Atlanta has the prospects and young big league talent to satisfy nearly any asking price.
Infielder Ozzie Albies, who many envision as Swanson's future double-play partner, would likely be one of the centerpieces of any deal, along with at least two of the team's highly touted pitching prospects, a list that includes Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussaint.
Outfielders Inciarte and Mallex Smith could both become part of a package as well. Adding a big-time pitcher, even one coming off a down year like Gray, is going to be incredibly expensive to do this winter, as the demand grossly outweighs the supply.
But with Julio Teheran, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey already entrenched in the Braves rotation, adding any of those front-line starters to the mix would immediately thrust the Braves into contention for at least a wild-card berth, if not more.
Such a move could thrust the Braves into the mix for the National League East, a division in which, after Washington, nearly every team is in some state of flux.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not at least considering a Zach Britton trade
Zach Britton is the best closer in baseball.
He's also Baltimore's most valuable trade chip not named Manny Machado, and in case you haven't noticed, teams are paying premium prices for big-time relievers.
San Diego pried four prospects, including outfielder Manuel Margot, from Boston in exchange for Craig Kimbrel last November. Only a few weeks later, Philadelphia got five players, including Vince Velasquez and former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel, from Houston in exchange for Ken Giles.
More recently, the New York Yankees pried four prospects, including outfielder Clint Frazier and starter Justus Sheffield, out of Cleveland for Andrew Miller. Britton is as good, if not better, than all of them.
With an unimpressive farm system that lacks in impact prospects and multiple holes to fill on the roster, the Orioles owe it to themselves to at least see what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Britton, who can become a free agent following the 2018 season.
They might just find a deal that's too good to pass up.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not making Edwin Encarnacion their top offseason target
You don't ever actually replace David Ortiz, whose larger-than-life personality and production in the middle of Boston's lineup is roughly a month into a well-deserved retirement.
Free agent Edwin Encarnacion, who has averaged 39 home runs and 110 RBI a year for division-rival Toronto since 2012, is as close to a drop-in replacement as you could find. But according to WEEI's Rob Bradford, the team and slugger have "yet to engage in any serious discussions."
Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli and Mark Trumbo are among the team's other potential targets, but none compare to Encarnacion, who remains one of the game's elite run producers.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding one of the top closers
Two things became fairly clear during the World Series: Chicago manager Joe Maddon had little faith in relievers Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, and he wasn't worried about running Aroldis Chapman and his left arm into the ground, using the flamethrower like a pitcher he was trying to stretch out.
But the Cubs now find themselves in need of a closer, with Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon the top three free-agent options. David Robertson, who spends his summers on the South Side of Chicago, Kansas City's Wade Davis and Pittsburgh's Tony Watson could all be potential trade targets.
General manager Jed Hoyer has to go out and bring one of them back to Wrigley Field.
Rondon, Chicago's closer before the team acquired Chapman, has to have had his confidence shaken by the way he was used—or, rather, not used—in the Fall Classic. Having him start the season as the team's closer, only to once again be replaced by a midseason addition, could destroy his effectiveness.
See Drew Storen for proof of that.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Delaying the rebuild
Chicago general manager Rick Hahn left all options on the table back in August when it came to the direction the front office wanted to go in the offseason.
"By the time we make our first or second transaction," Hahn told the Chicago Sun Times' Daryl Van Schouwen, "publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction. And while we aren’t going to say 'next on our list is this,' it will be obvious what we’re trying to accomplish."
If we're to take Hahn at his word, then the hiring of Rick Renteria as manager, given his reputation for working well with younger players, would signal that the team is preparing to trade away pieces from its current roster in exchange for younger talent to build a future contender around.
There's no shortage of potential trade chips for Hahn to play. Outfielders Melky Cabrera and Adam Eaton, third baseman Todd Frazier and first baseman Jose Abreu could be of interest to teams in need of a bat. On the mound, closer David Robertson and starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana have significant value.
A fire sale isn't necessary, but the White Sox have to begin to travel down the rebuilding road by selling off some of their veteran talent.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not trading Zack Cozart
If you believe that Cincinnati won't trade Joey Votto, the lone valuable trade chip the team has isn't Brandon Phillips—it's his double-play partner, Zack Cozart.
Nearly sent to Seattle at last year's trade deadline, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, the 31-year-old would be the best shortstop available this offseason. If you think free agency is lacking in quality starting pitching, the shortstop market isn't so hot, either.
It consists of Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez, Eric Sogard and Ruben Tejada. That's it.
Cozart isn't going to bring the Reds a massive return, but his departure would create an opening for Jose Peraza to get regular playing time, allowing the Reds to fairly gauge whether he's a part of the team's long-term future.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Letting Mike Napoli depart as a free agent
Looking at Mike Napoli's team-leading 34 home runs and 101 RBI is reason enough for Cleveland to do everything it can to re-sign him. But as closer Cody Allen told the Boston Globe's Julian Benbow as the playoffs were getting underway, Napoli's contributions in the clubhouse were even more valuable.
"The guy’s a stud, man. Not only on the field, but I’ll tell you what, he’s one of those guys that you could be from anywhere in the world, you could have different beliefs, whatever your background is, you’re going to get along with that guy. He’s going to push you, he’s going to make you better. He keeps everything moving in the right direction. He’s a big part of our culture change in the clubhouse.
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Napoli proved to be a massive bargain for the Indians on a one-year, $7 million deal, and re-signing him won't be easy. Sure to draw interest from multiple teams, the 35-year-old will be looking for a more lucrative multiyear deal.
Cleveland's window to not only return to the World Series, but also win remains open with or without Napoli. But it'd be a whole lot easier for the Tribe to make their second consecutive appearance in the Fall Classic with the party at Napoli's still raging.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not trying to sign Nolan Arenado to an extension
During the press conference introducing Bud Black as Colorado's new manager, Rockies owner Dick Monfort told reporters that general manager Jeff Bridich would have more payroll flexibility. "Our payroll will be higher this year," Monfort said, per the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders. "It will be a record this year."
While the Rockies need to rebuild their bullpen and are always on the hunt for quality starting pitching, the team should try and use some of that flexibility on a long-term extension for third baseman Nolan Arenado.
There's certainly no urgency for the team to do so, as the 25-year-old is controllable via arbitration through 2019. But he's only going to get more expensive with each passing year, continuing to tilt leverage away from the club and into his pocket.
An elite defender at the hot corner who has led the National League in both home runs and RBI in each of the past two seasons, working out a long-term pact with Arenado won't be easy or cheap. But it's far harder to find a comparable player, especially at the hot corner, that is readily available.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Diverting from the offseason plan
Shortly after Detroit's season came to an end, GM Al Avila let it be known that the days of the Tigers going on free agent shopping sprees are over. A retooling was about to get underway.
"This year is going to be different," Avila told reporters, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. "This year, we’re going to go out and talk to 29 other clubs and see how we can start, little by little, making this team leaner, younger, more efficient and, at the same time, staying competitive, trying to get to the playoffs. So that’s where the tightrope is that we’re walking on."
But the Tigers missed the playoffs by just 2.5 games a year ago, and with full seasons from American League Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer along with J.D. Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann, who both missed significant time with injury, it'd be easy to fall back into old habits and sign free agents to get over the hump.
It's something Avila has to avoid. Retooling on the fly is never easy, but it is possible, as Brian Cashman and the Yankees proved last season.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding an impact bat
From Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion (per MLB Network's Jon Morosi) to Carlos Beltran (Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News) and Brian McCann (Joel Sherman of the New York Post), Houston has been linked to nearly every impact bat that is—or may become—available as the offseason rolls along.
Earlier this month, general manager Jeff Luhnow told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that ownership had given him the "go-ahead to increase our payroll and make the investment we need to make," adding that he'd prefer to sign free agents than give up prospects in trades.
Houston's lineup wasn't terribly unproductive in 2016, but the club ranked eighth out of 15 AL clubs in runs scored. There's room for improvement. With as much chatter as there's been this early in the offseason, it'd be stunning—and downright disappointing—if the Astros didn't make a significant move to bolster their lineup.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not trading Wade Davis for controllable starting pitching
Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Yordano Ventura aren't a terrible top three in Kansas City's starting rotation, but things get ugly after that. Mike Minor and Jason Vargas, who logged a combined 12 innings of work in 2016 due to injury (all belonging to Vargas), round out the Royals' starting five.
The only depth to speak of is Alec Mills, who allowed five earned runs over 3.1 innings of work in his first taste of the majors, and Chris Young, who pitched to a 6.19 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over 34 appearances, including 13 starts.
A lack of rotation depth, one of the Royals' major issues in 2016, threatens to be a major issue once again in 2017 unless the club does something about it.
With little in the way of quality free agents available and the club operating on a somewhat reduced payroll, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, the Royals will have to trade for that depth. Dealing closer Wade Davis for that pitching is the most likely scenario.
Replacing Davis won't be easy, but either Kelvin Herrera or Joakim Soria, the latter of whom has extensive closing experience, can slide into the ninth inning as his replacement.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not upgrading second base
In the two years since Los Angeles traded Howie Kendrick, Angels second basemen have been hugely unproductive, hitting a combined .237 with an MLB-worst .617 OPS.
While the Angels lack the prospects to go out and trade for a long-term answer at the keystone—and there isn't one available in free agency—upgrades over the team's crop of in-house choices are out there.
Cincinnati's Brandon Phillips, who is more willing to waive his no-trade clause than he has been in the past, according to MLB Network's Jon Morosi, is one of them. Entering the final year of his contract, Phillips has hit .293 with a .724 OPS over the past two years, a massive improvement.
Chase Utley is another short-term bandage that could be applied, though he's more of a platoon player than an everyday option at this point in his career.
If the Angels are hoping to get back into the thick of a playoff race next season, an upgrade at second base is a must.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not re-signing Justin Turner
Some will argue that re-signing All-Star closer Kenley Jansen should be Los Angeles' priority this offseason, but they'd be wrong. Keeping the team's redheaded third baseman, Justin Turner, in Dodgers blue should be at the top of the club's to-do list, age be damned.
Last month, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball reported that there was mutual interest in a reunion, but he added that the Dodgers are "very cognizant of age generally" and would take that into account when it comes to re-signing the 31-year-old.
Like we said, age be damned.
Turner, who has developed into one of the game's better third basemen as a Dodger, is essentially irreplaceable this offseason. David Freese leads an uninspiring group of free agents at the hot corner, while Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria would cost a fortune to obtain.
Other options could become available, like Chicago's Todd Frazier, but they all pale in comparison to Turner, who hits for power and average, gets on base consistently and provides excellent defense at third base.
The bottom line is this: The Dodgers can find another elite closer—they can't find another elite third baseman.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding at least one controllable starting pitcher
With the team lacking the financial wiggle room to chase after the top free-agent starters available, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald suggested that the Marlins will be active on the trade front as they attempt to add a pair of controllable arms to the mix.
Dangling Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto or Christian Yelich as trade bait would bring the Marlins the kind of offers they're looking for, but the team doesn't want to deal any of them—or Giancarlo Stanton or Dee Gordon, according to Jackson.
That's going to have to change if the club is serious about improving its rotation.
Ozuna, who has long been the subject of trade speculation, seems the most expendable from that group. And the 26-year-old All-Star, who is under team control through 2019, would certainly be of interest to multiple teams, many of which have the sort of pitching Miami seeks.
Teams like Tampa Bay, which desperately needs an impact outfield bat—just like Ozuna's.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Holding onto Ryan Braun
For better or worse, Ryan Braun has long been the face of baseball in Milwaukee. But with the Brewers engaged in a lengthy rebuilding process, the All-Star left fielder no longer fits in the team's long-term plans.
That said, the 32-year-old remains a highly productive player, someone the Brewers aren't going to give away in a straight salary dump.
He was nearly traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the August waiver-trade window, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted the proposed deal would have brought Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy and prospects to Milwaukee.
If the Brewers can rekindle those talks with the Dodgers or find a similar deal from another team, they should agree to the swap. While less money left on Braun's contract might make him more attractive to some teams, the risk of another injury destroying his trade value is too great.
Milwaukee needs to trade him now, while his bat—and not his health—is what other teams are focused on.
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Trading Ervin Santana
With contention unlikely in 2017, nobody would blame Minnesota for shopping its veteran pieces in an attempt to stockpile more young, controllable talent. But in the case of Ervin Santana, the Twins need to avoid the temptation.
Santana was far and away Minnesota's best starter in 2016, going 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts. He was the only member of the Twins rotation to toss more than 150 innings, a statistic that did nothing to help an overworked and undermanned bullpen find any success.
While Santana would bring the Twins a significant return, he's more valuable to the club as a reliable innings-eater and a veteran leader.
New York Mets
18 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Allowing Yoenis Cespedes to walk as a free agent
Nobody should have been surprised that Yoenis Cespedes opted out of his deal with the New York Mets. Barring a catastrophic injury, it was obvious that the three-year, $75 million deal he signed with the team last offseason was going to be a one-year, $25 million pact.
While the Mets insured themselves against this scenario by trading for Jay Bruce last season and picking up his team option for 2017, Bruce doesn't bring the kind of production—or swagger—to the heart of the team's lineup that Cespedes does.
Re-signing him won't be cheap—something in the neighborhood of five years and $150 million might get it done. But it'll be more costly for the Mets if he departs, as the team lacks the internal options to replace his production, streaky as it may be.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Trading away prospects while holding onto veterans
New York completely transformed its farm system in 2016, giving the Yankees a wealth of riches in high-upside prospects. It also put the team in position to be able to swing a trade for nearly any player who becomes available, including the front-of-the-rotation arms that it sorely needs.
Suddenly, the likes of Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and Chris Sale are potential trade targets, not just arms the team could dream of making a run at when they finally hit free agency.
But the cost to acquire any of those players will be staggering—and it should be enough to give the Yankees pause. While adding one to the front of the rotation would greatly improve the team's chances of contending in 2017, it could have a negative long-term impact.
Rather than entertain the notion of parting ways with the likes of Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and Gleyber Torres, the Yankees should be focused on moving aging veterans like Brett Gardner and Brian McCann. Jacoby Ellsbury is essentially immovable due to his contract and declining production.
The returns for Gardner and/or McCann won't be tremendous, but they won't be negligible, either. One—or both—could bring back an MLB-ready starter (or one with experience) who can be slotted into the rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Selling low on Sonny Gray
Two years ago, Sonny Gray was an All-Star and third-place finisher in the AL Cy Young Award voting. He was a shell of that pitcher in 2016, making only 22 rather ineffective starts due to injury that saw him pitch to a career-high 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
With Oakland unlikely to contend as presently constituted, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported that the A's are willing to listen to trade offers on Gray, catcher Stephen Vogt and reliever Sean Doolittle, among others.
While teams will unquestionably have interest in the 27-year-old due to his relative youth, past success and team control (he's arbitration-eligible through 2019), few, if any, are going to offer the A's the kind of package Gray would have commanded after the 2015 season.
There's no reason to believe Gray can't return to that level of success in 2017, and thus, there's no reason for the A's to take anything less than 2015 prices on their ace. So long as he leaves last season's struggles in the past, Gray's value is only going to increase, while the demand for quality starting pitching will remain.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding at least one run-producing outfielder
It took a few years, but Philadelphia has managed to rid itself of any long-term commitments after buying out Ryan Howard's $23 million option. The team's payroll flexibility is significant.
So, too, is the team's lack of consistent offense, with the Phillies ranking last in baseball with 610 runs scored. Philadelphia's outfielders were a disaster, hitting a combined .239 with a .306 on-base percentage and .666 OPS.
Landing Yoenis Cespedes, the top free agent available, is unlikely. But there are a number of secondary options, including Colby Rasmus and Michael Saunders, who could be obtainable on relatively short-term pacts and offer a significant offensive boost over the team's current corner outfield choices.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not trading Andrew McCutchen
For years, Andrew McCutchen has been one of baseball's premier players and the face of America's pastime in Pittsburgh. But the 30-year-old is nearing the end of his contract and coming off a career-worst season.
While that doesn't signal the ideal time to part ways with a former National League Most Valuable Player, the time has come nonetheless. Due $14 million in 2017 and with a $14.5 million team option ($1 million buyout) for 2018, he won't be a long-term burden on a team's payroll.
Some teams surely prefer a short-term investment than the long-term pacts it'll take to sign the top outfield bats available as free agents, and those teams have been calling the Pirates.
"They recognize that we haven’t been averse to moving guys as their contract nears expiration," general manager Neal Huntington told John Perrotto of FanRag Sports. "It’s a part of how we believe we need to do things to continue to be competitive and continue to give ourselves a shot to win.
"If they see his name out there, they do what we do. If a really good player’s name gets popped out there, we make a call just to make sure we do our due diligence and to see if there might be a fit."
Moving McCutchen won't create a void in Pittsburgh's outfield. Starling Marte can slide over to center field from left field, while first baseman Josh Bell can take over in left until top prospect Austin Meadows is ready for his shot in the majors.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Failing to trade Derek Norris
As the 2016 season got away from San Diego, trade speculation began to swirl around former All-Star catcher Derek Norris. While he remains on San Diego's roster, he's a truly expendable piece, with youngsters Christian Bethancourt and Austin Hedges both ready for regular playing time.
Norris, 27, did nothing to help boost his value as a trade chip last year, hitting a woeful .186 with 14 home runs, 42 RBI and a .583 OPS. He was better defensively, grading out as a slightly above-average pitch-framer, per Baseball Prospectus, though Norris did struggle with the opposition's running game.
That said, he's still in the prime of his career and is controllable through 2018. That, along with his pitch-framing, will create a market for his services among teams in need of an upgrade behind the plate. San Diego won't get a ton in return for him, but the time has come for the two sides to part ways.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Passing on all the elite closers
No team in baseball saw its bullpen blow more saves than the 30 that San Francisco's did last season, which helps to explain why the Giants allowed bullpen stalwarts Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez and Sergio Romo to all reach free agency.
Adding one of the premier closers on the market—free agents Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon, along with Kansas City's Wade Davis as a potential trade candidate—is a must if the Giants have any chance of overtaking Los Angeles in the NL West or making a return trip to the playoffs.
A lesser option could be to trade for Chicago's David Robertson, but he's a notch below the others on the closer hierarchy.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding at least one left-handed reliever to the bullpen
Dean Kiekhefer and David Rollins, who both own career ERAs above 5.60, are the only two left-handed relievers on Seattle's 40-man roster. That's a problem.
So it comes as no surprise to see the Mariners linked to a pair of free-agent southpaws, per the Seattle Times' Ryan Divish, in Brett Cecil and Boone Logan. Either one would be a substantial upgrade from the team's in-house options, though neither one will come at a bargain price.
In fact, Cecil may already be too expensive for the team's liking, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, naming Pittsburgh's Tony Watson as a potential trade target.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Passing on free-agent center fielders
If the regular season were about to start, St. Louis' starting outfield would feature Randal Grichuk in left field, Stephen Piscotty in right field and Tommy Pham in center. A perennial contender like the Cardinals can—and should—be able to do better than that.
Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gomez are the standouts in free agency, and each one would be a notable upgrade over Pham, who is at best a fourth outfielder or the right-handed part of a platoon. Of that group, signing Fowler might be the most satisfying for the Cardinals.
Not only is he a proven commodity, both as a table-setter atop the lineup and a defender in center, but signing Fowler away from division-rival Chicago would serve as some payback for the Cubs' poaching of Jason Heyward and John Lackey as free agents last winter.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not capitalizing on a weak pitching market
The New York Post's Joel Sherman recently reported that Tampa Bay left the general managers' meetings "under the stronger belief they would trade one from among starters Chris Archer (five years of control), Jake Odorizzi (three years), Drew Smyly (two years) and less likely Alex Cobb (one year)."
Few teams have the kind of pitching depth the Rays do, so it makes sense for the club to deal from an area of strength, especially in a market that is starving for quality starting pitchers—particularly those under the age of 30 on team-friendly deals (or still arbitration-eligible).
Obviously, trading a pitcher like Archer is going to bring back a far more substantial package of talent than, say, someone like Smyly would. But the Rays will get a solid return for any of their starters, one that at the very least should help the team plug holes in left field and behind the plate.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Failing to add a No. 3 starter and rotation depth
After Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, Texas' starting rotation is filled with more questions than answers.
A.J. Griffin and Martin Perez have talent, but both have battled injuries and ineffectiveness in the past, making it hard to see them as anything more than back-of-the-rotation arms. Chi Chi Gonzalez took a step back in his development last year, while the team's other top young arms aren't ready to contribute.
Ideally, the Rangers would be able to add more than one arm to the mix. But realistically, the team may have to settle for just one significant addition to the rotation. Trading for Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi or signing former Rangers hurler Edinson Volquez, a free agent, are among Texas' potential options.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding a proven corner outfielder
After replacing Edwin Encarnacion with Kendrys Morales, Toronto's focus has to be on bolstering its outfield around center fielder Kevin Pillar.
Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. would be a fine platoon in left field, leaving a gaping hole for Toronto to fill in right. A reunion with Jose Bautista can't be discounted, but you couldn't blame the Blue Jays if they were hesitant to ink a 36-year-old outfielder to a multiyear pact, even if he's a fan favorite.
After Bautista, Josh Reddick is the top free-agent right fielder available, while the team could also revisit a potential trade for New York's Jay Bruce, a player the team nearly acquired from Cincinnati as part of a three-team deal last February.
Entering the 2017 season with both Carrera and Upton Jr. in the starting lineup would be a worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays, something that should be avoided at all costs.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Critical Mistake to Avoid: Not adding an established catcher
Wilson Ramos wasn't extended a qualifying offer, and Pedro Severino isn't ready to carry the load on a full-time basis, leaving Washington with a supremely talented pitching staff and nobody to catch it.
Matt Wieters is the top free-agent catcher available, while lesser backstops like Jason Castro and Chris Iannetta would represent fallback options. The Nationals could also look to trade for a catcher, with trade speculation surrounding New York's Brian McCann, Oakland's Stephen Vogt and San Diego's Derek Norris.
One way or another, GM Mike Rizzo has to make bringing in outside catching help his top priority this winter, followed closely by adding an established closer to the mix.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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