Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to draw even with the idle Oakland Raiders atop the AFC West standings when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

The Chiefs are riding a four-game straight-up winning streak, including two victories on the road. However, Kansas City is just 1-6 SU and against the spread in its past seven as a road underdog.

The Panthers have rebounded from a dismal 1-5 SU start with two straight wins. Carolina has also performed well at home against opponents with winning records, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its past seven.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.4-20.2, Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs remained unbeaten at home this season with a 19-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend, and they have held opponents to 14.8 points per game during their current four-game tear.

Kansas City has also consistently shut down opposing offenses in recent road contests, holding them to 19 or fewer points in eight of its past 11 away from Arrowhead Stadium.

Turnovers have been a real problem for the Panthers, who rank third in the league with 17 giveaways and are 1-3 SU this season when Cam Newton throws an interception. Conversely, the Chiefs lead the NFL with 20 total takeaways after forcing 10 total turnovers during their current win streak.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

With his shaky start and early-season injury problems behind him, Newton has led the Panthers to early leads in their two recent wins. Newton has also avoided throwing an interception in three of his past four outings.

The Panthers' ground game has averaged almost 110 yards per game over the team's past four contests. Carolina rushers could be poised to break through against a Chiefs defense that surrendered 205 rushing yards last week against the Jaguars and that has allowed over 100 yards in four of five.

Carolina has regularly paid out as a home favorite at the sportsbooks, going 7-2 ATS over its past nine. The Panthers are also an impressive 9-1 SU and ATS when favored at home by three or fewer points.

Smart pick

The Chiefs defense has held opponents to just 17.7 points per game over the team's past seven games, pushing the total under six times, but Kansas City is a disappointing 3-5 ATS this season.

Carolina proved it can win a defensive struggle with last week's 13-10 victory against the Los Angeles Rams, and it is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at home.

Look for Carolina to post the SU victory and cover the small posted spread by a slim margin in a low-scoring matchup.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

The total has gone under in three of the Chiefs' last four games against the Panthers.

The total has gone over in eight of the Panthers' last 11 games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.