NFL Week 10 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

If there's one constant NFL bettors can hang their hat on this season, it's been taking the over. 

Vegas just can't seem to set point totals high enough this year. In Week 9, the over went a profitable 8-5 while moving to 74-56-3 on the season, according to Odds Shark. In fact, Week 7 is the only one in which the under was a more successful bet.

That's a trend worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. 

Either the over will continue to be a reliably profitable option, or things are going to start regressing toward the mean. Here's a look at the schedule for this week along with predictions for each game and a look at some point totals, per Odds Shark. 

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Pick
Cleveland at Baltimore (TNF)	BAL -10	45	CLE/U
Houston at Jacksonville	HOU -2	42.5	HOU/O
Kansas City at Carolina	CAR -3	44	CAR/U
L.A. Rams at N.Y. Jets	NYJ -2	39.5	NYJ/O
Atlanta at Philadelphia	E	50	ATL/O
Green Bay at Tennessee	GB -3	49.5	TEN/U
Minnesota at Washington	WAS -3	41.5	WAS/O
Chicago at Tampa Bay	CHI -1.5	45.5	TB/O
Denver at New Orleans	NO -2	49	NO/O
Miami at San Diego	SD -4	49	SD/O
San Francisco at Arizona	ARI -13.5	48.5	ARI/O
Dallas at Pittsburgh	PIT -2	50	DAL/U
Seattle at New England	NE -7.5	49	NE/U
Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants (MNF)	NYG -2.5	47	NYG/O

Potential Shootout

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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Taking the over in both Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles games has been a safe bet in recent weeks. According to Odds Shark, the over is 4-1 in the last five games for both the Eagles and the Falcons.

This week, both teams should continue that trend since they play each other. 

The fact that the Eagles games have exceeded scoring expectations is an anomaly. They actually have the No. 1 defense in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, but it hasn't translated to success in scoring defense. 

The Eagles are just 16th in scoring defense over the last three weeks. 

That trend should continue in a battle between two quarterbacks who are having great seasons. Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz are both in the top five this season, according to Pro Football Focus' grades thus far: 

Wentz's season grade is likely affected by his hot start, though. The rookie quarterback got off to a great start this season, but he has faded a bit as the season has progressed. 

	Comp./Att.	Yards	Completion %	TD	INT	Rating
September	66/102	769	64.7	5	0	103.8
October	84/126	757	66.7	4	3	83.3
November	27/47	364	57.4	0	2	64.5

Ryan should hold the upper hand in this one, as the Falcons have the No. 1 offense, according to the DVOA metric. 

In general, an elite defense trumps an elite offense, but Sunday's matchup might just buck that trend. 

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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A strange phenomenon is going on in terms of the Houston Texans defense. Apparently, playing in Houston improves tackling, coverages and pass rush, because the Texans are simply a worse defense when playing away from home this year.

That should help the Jacksonville Jaguars make this game competitive because they don't really play defense regardless of where they are. 

At home, the Texans rank eighth in the league in scoring defense, giving up just 16.4 points per game. Travel outside of Houston and you're looking at surrendering 28.3 points per contest. That's good for 27th in the league. 

The Jaguars offense hasn't been able to put up many points this season, but this is still the same unit that posted 23.5 points per game in 2015. A home game against the Texans might be just what the Jaguars need to show some signs of life. 

In a game with two offenses that just aren't productive, the over-under might not take into consideration the fact neither defense is stout. 

Over to Avoid

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

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Before you get too crazy by taking all the overs and hoping to watch the points roll in, beware taking the over in the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans. 

The over has been money in regard to Tennessee. Per Odds Shark, the over has hit in five of its last five contests, but that streak might come to an end against the Packers. They've seen the under cash in 18 of their last 23 contests. 

That's because the traditionally dynamic Packers offense has suddenly hit a wall. Aaron Rodgers has been the maestro of the Packers' symphony of destruction for years, but he ripped his team's energy after a 31-26 loss to the Colts last week, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

"

I don't understand it. I mean, this is what we get paid to do, is to bring it every week, and I hope the guys would say I bring it every week. I mean, I love this game and I bring energy. I'm not a rah-rah guy, but I'm a focused, enthusiastic player, and I don't know what the lack of juice was. You kind of felt it over the entire sideline. We didn't have the same kind of enthusiasm and encouragement that we had the previous two weeks. So we've got to look deep in the mirror there, because that's just not acceptable.

"

The aftershock of those comments is real too. According to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report, there is a potential for a shake-up in the coaching staff if Rodgers continues to be unhappy:

While the numbers point to this game hitting the over, things sound like they might get worse for the Packers before they get better. 

With Rodgers' frustrations and the Packers riding a two-game losing streak, they might struggle to light up the scoreboard, even against a Titans defense that ranks 26th in DVOA.