NFL Predictions Week 9: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

I was allowed to go catch one of my dad’s games in Washington or across town against the Jets.

Philadelphia was out of the question, though, especially during the Buddy Ryan era. So I developed a healthy hatred for the team down the New Jersey Turnpike as a kid. It only worsened when Randall Cunningham and Reggie White engineered some soul-crushing comebacks in the late '80s.

I’ve swapped my childhood fandom for an analyst’s neutrality. But I’d be lying if I said this week—Eagles vs. Giants—didn’t stir up something from back in the day. My dad probably feels that way too. It’s only natural.

In fact, this weekend is guaranteed to get the heart pumping. Three of my weekly predictions involve a battle between bitter divisional foes. I’m ready for the NFL’s rivalry games. Are you?

Cakewalk of the Week

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Prediction: Chiefs over Jaguars

Repeat after me: Blake Bortles. Is not. An NFL. Quarterback.

It’s just a fact, and the Kansas City defense knows it all too well. It’ll throw every exotic look and personnel grouping imaginable at the Jaguars signal-caller and dare him to decipher it. He won’t be able to operate with guys like Chris Jones and Dee Ford hot on his trail.

Points won’t be an issue for the Chiefs, though. Nick Foles is a better fit for Andy Reid’s passing game and should hit three or four deep balls, judging by last Thursday’s outcome. Reid will also hit the Jags with misdirection, draws and sweeps—anything to get that overaggressive front seven thinking one way before going the opposite way.

In summation: Kansas City can make it look easy in Week 9.

Matchup Nightmare

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Prediction: Cowboys offensive line vs. Browns defense

Name two members of the Cleveland front seven. Don’t use Google, either.

There’s a reason why it's so tough. The Cleveland defense is chock-full of rookies and starters who wouldn’t scratch the first team anywhere else, and they’re about to be outclassed and outmuscled in Week 9.

The Dallas front five isn’t just the best blocking unit in today’s game. It’s the best blocking unit I’ve ever seen and perhaps the best of all time. Ezekiel Elliott can exploit running lanes the size of Jerry Jones’ Jumbotron against Cleveland. So can Dak Prescott and gadget-play artist Lucky Whitehead.

I’ll explain why this game could come down to Prescott’s passing in a few slides. Just know that quick throws have a chance to be quick touchdowns in this game. It’s all due to the blocking prowess of the Great Wall of Dallas.

Must-Watch Rookie

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Prediction: C.J. Prosise

Seattle’s backfield situation is a logjam of between-the-tackles bangers.

Enter C.J. Prosise. He’s the closest thing to LeSean McCoy I’ve seen in a prospect coming out of college. The Notre Dame product with a dangerous jump-cut could help revive a once-proud Seahawks run game.

If not, Prosise still has loads of value. Rex Ryan will devise pressures and schemes to make Russell Wilson throw hot. Prosise (80 yards on four catches last week) has big-play ability out of the backfield as well.

Dark-Horse MVP Candidate of the Week

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Prediction: Zack Martin

Let’s be clear: The NFL would never hand a guard its Most Valuable Player award. The trophy is reserved for quarterbacks and running backs.

But if it were to think outside the box, what better choice is out there than Zack Martin? No non-quarterback has been as instrumental to his team’s success. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott aren’t that good; Martin is general-like in his ability to identify and open up avenues for attacking.

Case in point: Last week’s big-boy game against Fletcher Cox. The Eagles' All-Pro lineman couldn’t break through Martin’s perfect blocks. It was like watching a ballet on game film.

Martin is a more athletic Larry Allen. That’s not a typo—I believe he’s more gifted than one of the most gifted blockers of all time. He’s only getting better.

Sleeper Stat-Stuffer

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Prediction: Kenny Britt

Everyone’s sleeping on Kenny Britt again. Go figure—his entire career has been spent under the radar.

My all-time favorite receiver to throw to is facing a roller coaster of a secondary. With his unique skill set, he’s poised to go off in Week 9.

He’ll have every opportunity to do so. Like every opponent the Rams have faced, Carolina figures to roll out a Todd Gurley-centric defensive plan. Britt should face a solid amount of man coverage all afternoon.

We saw him bust through that coverage in Week 6 to the tune of a seven-catch, 136-yard, two-touchdown game. Something tells me we’ll see similar output from No. 18 on Sunday.

More Touchdown Passes: Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco?

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Prediction: Joe Flacco

Is Ben Roethlisberger (knee) healthy and ready to go?

I’m not sure yet. Regardless, it might be a tad early to predict monster numbers from Pittsburgh’s star QB. So I’m going with his counterpart in Baltimore.

My reasoning has less to do with Joe Flacco than it does with his defense. Coordinator Dean Pees sees Big Ben and his crew two and sometimes three times a year. They won’t let Antonio Brown twerk in the end zone; Pees will set two safeties deep and erase any over-the-top throws.

Even when Pittsburgh gets close, it’ll still be tempted to use Le’Veon Bell as a battering ram. Flacco, on the other hand, has no other options. He is the Ravens' scoring offense.

More Passing Yards: Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers?

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Prediction: Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are both asked to do so much in their respective offenses.

It’s the difference in those offenses that made my mind up. A typical Rodgers outing is accurate as hell—say, 30-of-40 and two or three touchdowns—but without the monster yards. His 400-yard games are few and far between these days.

Does T.Y. Hilton play? Does it even matter? Luck picks up yards by the bushel. He'll do just fine with Phillip Dorsett, Donte Moncrief and whoever else puts on gloves and runs routes for the Colts. 

Also: Indianapolis has abandoned the mere thought of a running game. Buckle up and watch Luck drop back 55 times this week.

More Receiving Yards: Odell Beckham Jr. or Eagles WR Corps?

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Prediction: Eagles WR corps

You know the Eagles' receiving depth chart is a mess when we’re seriously waging this debate.

Guys like Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor comprise the league’s most boring unit. Carson Wentz throws so many screens and simple crosses just to get these guys open—not because they’re effective.

On the other end? Just Odell Beckham Jr. Anything is possible when his cleats touch the turf. The Philadelphia secondary doesn’t have the talent to contain him consistently.

But Philly won’t have to work alone. For some reason, this Giants offense has happily let opposing defenses off the hook by limiting OBJ’s targets. Until I see coach Ben McAdoo break out of that disturbing trend, I’ll go with a full team’s worth of wideouts…barely.

More Sacks: Khalil Mack or Von Miller?

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Prediction: Von Miller

It would take an in-his-prime Lawrence Taylor to out-sack Von Miller.

Until time travel becomes reality, I’m sticking with Miller. No current NFLer can match his pass rushing ability—not even one as talented as Khalil Mack.

If Miller is the best pass-rusher in football, Mack is second. The difference? Trevor Siemian is going to throw 30 times, if that. Derek Carr throws 50 or 60 times; Miller will have almost twice as many opportunities to get after the quarterback.

I know Mack had a five-sack day against Denver in their last meeting. He’ll face tougher blocking than Michael Schofield gave him, though. Donald Stephenson should fare much better against Mack’s hard-to-block stiff-arm move.

Under/Over Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards

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Line: 125

Prediction: Under

I just predicted the Cowboys offensive line would roll in Cleveland this week. And I just named Zack Martin as a way-under-the-radar MVP candidate.

So everything points to a big Ezekiel Elliott day, right? Not necessarily.

I know how coach Hue Jackson and defensive coordinator Ray Horton think. Deep down, both guys know they’re outflanked in the defensive trenches. They’ll be damned if Dallas comes into their house and runs all over their front seven, though.

Write it down: The Browns will sell out against the run. You’ll see eight or nine defenders in the box on every snap to prevent utter embarrassment. Elliott will churn out yardage—particularly with the motivation of being so close to Columbus, Ohio—but the game’s biggest plays will come when Dak Prescott pulls the ball back and throws it downfield.