The Biggest Early Questions of the 2016-17 MLB Offseason
The MLB season may be over, but there's no offseason in an MLB front office, as teams are already hard at work building toward next year.
Early to-do items around the league include deciding whether to exercise player options and whether to extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents.
That often leads to some early activity on the trade market, with teams moving to acquire a player before his option is declined and he's free to sign anywhere.
Meanwhile, eligible free agents are gearing up for what they hope will be bidding wars for their services on the free-agent market, and teams are already fielding calls regarding potential trade chips.
So at the start of the MLB offseason, let's take a quick look at some early questions from around the league.
How Will the Jeurys Familia Situation Unfold?
1 of 5
The New York Mets were already facing a busy offseason.
Assuming Yoenis Cespedes opts out of his current contract as expected, he'll join Neil Walker, Bartolo Colon and Jerry Blevins as key players set to hit the open market.
On top of that, ongoing health concerns surrounding Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could make adding a starting pitcher a necessity, and the team will make every effort to come to terms on a new deal with Cespedes as well.
Now they're forced to deal with an off-field incident from one of their most important players.
Closer Jeurys Familia was arrested earlier this week in connection with a "domestic violence altercation," according to James Wagner of the New York Times.
Jim Baumbach of Newsday tweeted that he'll be in court on Nov. 10, at which point we should have a bit more clarity on the situation.
Even if no charges are filed, Familia could still face a suspension from the league, as Aroldis Chapman was banned for 30 games last year without any charges.
The Mets have a capable in-house replacement for Familia in setup man Addison Reed, who served as closer during his time with the Chicago White Sox.
Still, being without Familia for any stretch of time could alter the Mets' offseason plans, so his status for the upcoming season is a major question mark.
Where Will Greg Holland Stack Up in This Year's Free-Agent Class?
2 of 5
Not all that long ago, Greg Holland was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.
The 30-year-old took over as the Kansas City Royals closer in 2013 and earned a spot on the American League All-Star team in consecutive seasons while finishing ninth in AL Cy Young voting both years.
- 2013: 68 G, 47/50 SV, 1.21 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13.8 K/9
- 2014: 65 G, 46/48 SV, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13.0 K/9
Holland was not nearly as overpowering in 2015, converting 32 of 37 save chances with a 3.83 ERA, and it was eventually revealed that he was pitching with a torn UCL in his throwing elbow.
That brought his season to an abrupt halt in September, and he spent the 2016 season recovering from Tommy John surgery after being non-tendered by the Royals.
Proving he's healthy will be paramount to securing any sort of lucrative deal this offseason, so it's no surprise that he's planning on holding a showcase.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Holland will throw for scouts sometime in the next week.
"He is back at it full steam," Holland's agent, Scott Boras, told Sherman. "With the value of relief pitching being shown [in the postseason], he should be interesting."
This year's free-agent market is flush with top-tier relief arms, headlined by Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.
If Holland is back to full strength, he'll be an intriguing option capable of performing at that same level.
A Detroit Tigers Fire Sale?
3 of 5
Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported last month that the Detroit Tigers are open for business this offseason:
"They will listen to trade offers on everybody.
Miguel Cabrera. Justin Verlander. Ian Kinsler.
Anybody.
Now, there's a big difference between listening to offers and executing trades, and even if some team stepped up and dangled a suitable package for one of the Tigers' bigger stars, that doesn't necessarily mean Detroit would finish the deal, especially after years of conditioning its fan base to expect big-money teams with big names. And there is no indication that what the Tigers will try to do this winter will be anything close to a full-blown fire sale.
But what Detroit will attempt this winter might be similar to what the Yankees did during the 2016 season: transition into a younger (and cheaper) team by extracting value from some of the older and more expensive players. Tigers GM Al Avila seems to be preparing the fan base for the changes to come with his recent remarks.
"
So just how aggressive will the Tigers be?
It's hard to see any deal coming together that results in Verlander or Cabrera being dealt, but Kinsler, outfielder J.D. Martinez and closer Francisco Rodriguez don't come with the same financial baggage and could each net a substantial return.
The team already pulled the trigger on a smaller move, sending Cameron Maybin and his pending $9 million team option to the Los Angeles Angels for pitching prospect Victor Alcantara on Thursday, according to ESPN.com news services.
The Tigers have a chance to be major players in shaping what figures to be a busy offseason trade market, so just how serious they are about selling ranks as one of the biggest questions of early November.
.png?w=256)
Who Will Get a Qualifying Offer?
4 of 5
First of all, let's run down the list of players who would appear to be locks to receive qualifying offers, which have been set at $17.2 million this year.
- RF Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
- LF Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
- CF Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers
- 1B Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
- CF Dexter Fowler, Chicago Cubs
- SP Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
- RP Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
- RF Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
- 3B Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2B Neil Walker, New York Mets
Walker was the one questionable name in that group, but Adam Rubin of ESPN.com reported that the Mets intend on making an offer despite his recent back surgery.
That brings us to the fringe guys.
Mike Napoli (.800 OPS, 34 HR, 101 RBI) and Kendrys Morales (.795 OPS, 30 HR, 93 RBI) both put up strong numbers in 2016, but they are essentially one-dimensional players at this point in their careers.
There appears to be some interest from the Indians in a reunion with Napoli, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, but it would likely be on a two-year deal with a smaller annual value.
Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters became one of the first players to accept a qualifying offer last winter, and he had a relatively productive season with a .711 OPS, 17 home runs and 66 RBI while earning a spot on the AL All-Star team.
The O's will need someone to bridge the gap to prospect Chance Sisco, and Caleb Joseph is best suited as a backup.
Wilson Ramos was a lock for a qualifying offer and a huge payday before he suffered a torn ACL in September, which makes extending him an offer an obvious risk for the Washington Nationals, especially on a lucrative one-year deal that he'd be likely to accept.
Had he duplicated his first-half numbers (.923 OPS, 16 HR, 42 RBI), Michael Saunders would have been an easy yes for the Toronto Blue Jays, but he slumped badly after the break (.638 OPS, 8 HR, 15 RBI), leaving his status in doubt.
If there's a dark horse for a qualifying offer, it might be Houston Astros third baseman Luis Valbuena. The market for third basemen is nonexistent behind Turner, and the 30-year-old quietly had solid numbers, posting an .816 OPS, 13 home runs and 40 RBI over 342 plate appearances.
Early Trade Candidates?
5 of 5
There will be some big-name trade targets that pop up as the offseason unfolds, but here in November, there are a handful of players who could change teams in short order due to decisions over whether to exercise their team options.
- SP Clay Buchholz (BOS): The Boston Red Sox exercised their $13.5 million option on Buchholz, but that doesn't mean he's a lock to hang around in Boston. The 32-year-old was 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA in 139.1 innings but turned things around late with a 2.86 ERA over his final 17 appearances and 56.2 innings of work.
- 3B Yunel Escobar (LAA): As of this writing, the Los Angeles Angels have yet to make a decision on their $7 million option for Escobar. They were shopping him leading up to the July deadline, so it stands to reason that he'd be available once again. The 34-year-old hit .304 with 28 doubles and 68 runs scored for a 1.6 WAR.
- SP Jaime Garcia (STL): As expected, the St. Louis Cardinals exercised their $12 million option on Garcia. The 30-year-old managed to stay healthy in 2016 but didn't pitch up to his normal standards, going 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA over 30 starts. With Lance Lynn set to return and both Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver pushing their way into the rotation picture, he could be a valuable chip in the barren pitching market.
- SP Derek Holland (TEX): Unlike the first three players on this list, Holland has already been told that the Texas Rangers won't be exercising their $11 million option, instead opting for the $1.5 million buyout if they can't find a taker on the trade market, per T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The 30-year-old was 7-9 with a 4.95 ERA while missing time due to injury for the third straight year.
- RP Pat Neshek (HOU), RP Fernando Rodney (SD), C Carlos Ruiz (LAD): Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports listed this trio as potentially available earlier this week. Neshek is the most expensive of the group at $6.5 million, while Ruiz and Rodney both carry $4.5 million price tags.
It may not be the most exciting list of names, but these are the guys worth keeping an eye on over the next few days if there is any more early-November trade activity.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
