Bleacher Report's Complete 2016-2017 MLB Offseason Preview
The World Series is over. Now begins the long, dark, cold road to spring training.
Better fire up the hot stove.
No Major League Baseball will be played in the next few months, but plenty of new homes will be found for free agents and trade targets. 'Tis the season for wheeling and dealing.
There's no time like the present to preview it all. Ahead is a breakdown of the best bargain-bin, second-level and top-level free agents, as well as a look at the top trade candidates. At the end is analysis of which teams figure to be the most active in the offseason market.
Ready? Let's get to it.
Bargain-Bin Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Andrew Cashner, RHP
Andrew Cashner was a well-regarded pitching prospect once. Now he's a 30-year-old with a long list of injuries and a 4.72 ERA over the last two seasons.
If nothing else, Cashner is an intriguing reclamation project in a free-agent market that's light on starters. He still has a live arm, averaging 93.5 mph on his fastball in 2016. There may yet be a way to turn that into a weapon in a starting role and likely for less than the $7.15 million he made in 2016.
Brett Anderson, LHP
Brett Anderson is basically a left-handed Cashner. Once a promising young starter, he's now a veteran who's had issues with injuries and ineffectiveness. This past season was especially rough, as he was limited to just four appearances in which he had an 11.91 ERA.
However, Anderson is still only 28 years old. He showed with his 3.69 ERA and league-high ground-ball percentage in 2015 that he can get it done if the injury bug leaves him alone. That earned him a $15.8 million salary for 2016. He'll be signed for far less than that this winter.
Edinson Volquez, RHP
Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball reported the Kansas City Royals won't be picking up Edinson Volquez's $10 million option for 2017. It's hard to blame them after he struggled with a 5.37 ERA in 2016.
Volquez may not be done yet as an effective starter. The 33-year-old's velocity is aging well, and he just put up his best ground-ball rate (51.2 GB%) since 2011. Some team should be able to pick him up for less than $10 million and use him as a solid back-end innings-eater.
Bargain-Bin Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Greg Holland, RHP
Greg Holland hasn't been seen since undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, but now he's on a comeback trail at a time when his services figure to be in demand.
"He is back at it full steam," Scott Boras, Holland's agent, told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. "With the value of relief pitching being shown [in the postseason], he should be interesting."
Holland had a 1.86 ERA with a rate of 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings between 2011 and 2014. The 30-year-old won't be signed for dirt cheap, but he's a potential bargain in a market that will be centered around Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.
Daniel Hudson, RHP
Daniel Hudson is a two-time Tommy John survivor who's coming off a 5.22 ERA in 2016. This ensures no team is going to look at him without a healthy dose of skepticism.
There's room for optimism too, though. The 29-year-old can bring it, averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball in 2016. He also struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings and improved both his soft-hit and hard-hit contact rates from 2015. The team that takes a chance on him could be richly rewarded.
Santiago Casilla, RHP
The mere mention of Santiago Casilla's name may make San Francisco Giants fans cringe. The 36-year-old went on way too many adventures in 2016, putting up a 3.57 ERA and blowing nine saves.
And yet, Casilla is still throwing hard and is coming off the best strikeout rate of his career at 10.1 per nine innings. A change of scenery could be all he needs, and he could be willing to accept it for less than the $6.5 million he made in 2016.
Brett Cecil, LHP
After putting up a 2.67 ERA between 2013 and 2015, Brett Cecil battled injuries and a case of homeritis on his way to a 3.93 ERA in 2016.
Despite all this, he still struck out 45 batters in only 36.2 innings. That and his history of dominating left-handed batters could make him a good find on a salary that will likely be less than the $3.8 million he pulled in this season.
Travis Wood, LHP
Also in the realm of lefty killers is Travis Wood. He was good at silencing lefties even before he transitioned into a relief role in 2015. He perfected the art in 2016, holding left-handed batters to a .128 average and .447 OPS.
The Chicago Cubs paid Wood $6.18 million in 2016. A heavy price for a situational lefty, to be sure, but odds are he won't match that on the open market.
Bargain-Bin Free Agents: Position Players
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Jason Castro, C
Jason Castro has fallen on hard times since his All-Star breakout in 2013. He's put up just a .660 OPS over the last three seasons. Now he has to share a market with Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters.
One thing Castro has going for him is his framing talent. Per StatCorner, he was one of the five most valuable strike-framers in the league in 2016. That's arguably worth playing him every day despite his offensive struggles. But if a team so desired, his .753 career OPS against right-handed pitching suggests he could thrive in a platoon role.
Brandon Moss, OF/1B
One thing this winter's market has in good supply is powerful but defensively limited hitters. Some of them are getting the attention they deserve. Brandon Moss? Seemingly not as much.
Moss struggled in 2015, but his 28 homers in 2016 made it three out of four seasons with at least 25 dingers. The 33-year-old is built to keep them coming, combining good raw power with a swing that produced one of the highest average launch angles of any hitter, according to Baseball Savant.
Where other power hitters are going to be overpaid this winter, Moss may be happy if his next salary even matches the $8.25 million he made in 2016.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/DH
Speaking of overlooked power hitters, how about Pedro Alvarez? After flaming out as an everyday position player in 2015, he thrived in his role as a platoon DH in 2016. In just 334 plate appearances against right-handers, he OPS'd .848 with 21 of his 22 homers.
This performance likely has Alvarez in line for a bump over the $5.75 million he made in 2016. But since he's only a platoon DH, it shouldn't be too much of a bump.
Rajai Davis, OF
Rajai Davis has never made more than $5.25 million in any of his 11 seasons. As a semi-everyday player with limited skills who's now 36, that's not about to change in a big way.
And yet, Davis is always a good guy to have on a roster. His on-base percentage is going to be above .300. His American League-high 43 stolen bases in 2016 prove his legs still work. And he can play all three outfield positions. Somebody's going to be glad to have him this winter.
Matt Joyce, OF
Matt Joyce stopped hitting right-handers in 2015, putting up just a .592 OPS against them. Since that was supposed to be his specialty, it's no wonder the Pittsburgh Pirates picked him up for just $1 million.
He rewarded them with an .884 OPS and 12 home runs against right-handers, numbers much more in line with his previous career rates. He won't be had for $1 million again, but teams in need of a good platoon outfielder should keep Joyce in mind.
Second-Level Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Bartolo Colon, RHP
In a free-agent market where starting pitching talent is scarce, teams are going to at least want some reliability. That's where Bartolo Colon comes in. He may be 43 and charmingly fluffy, but he's pitched over 190 innings in each of the last four seasons.
Whether Colon can again be as good as the 3.43 ERA he posted in 2016 is a good question. But he's not going to be much worse. He's an elite strike-thrower who doesn't beat himself. This winter, that could mean a nice raise over the $7.25 million he made in 2016.
Ivan Nova, RHP
Ivan Nova would be one for the bargain bin had it not been for what he did in Pittsburgh at the end of 2016. After putting up a 4.90 ERA for the New York Yankees, he finished with a 3.06 ERA for the Pirates.
This looks like a case of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage working his magic. Nova maintained a strong ground-ball rate at 52.3 percent in Pittsburgh but improved both his strikeout and walk rates.
Nobody's going to rush to him with a huge contract offer in hand. But after J.A. Happ made good on his post-Searage $36 million contract, Nova is in line for a raise over the $4.1 million he made in 2016.
Doug Fister, RHP
It turns out Doug Fister's fall from grace in 2015 wasn't a one-time thing. He struggled in 2016 too, posting a 4.64 ERA in 32 starts. His velocity isn't what it once was, nor does he limit walks or collect ground balls as well as he used to.
However, the 32-year-old did pitch 180.1 innings in 2016. That puts him in the same boat as Colon in the sense that he's going to be viewed as a reliable starter by teams in need of an innings-eater. This could even lead to a raise over the $7 million Fister made in 2016.
Second-Level Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Koji Uehara, RHP
This comes with the disclaimer that Koji Uehara may not want to keep pitching in 2017. He is going to be 42 years old, after all.
If Uehara decides he does want to keep pitching, he'll draw a crowd of teams that don't want to pay top dollar to the best relievers on the market. The veteran has fallen off from his brilliant season in 2013, but he has still put up a 2.73 ERA with a 6.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last three seasons.
Joaquin Benoit, RHP
Joaquin Benoit is coming off a weird season. He was a bust with a 5.18 ERA with the Seattle Mariners. Then he had a 0.38 ERA with the Toronto Blue Jays but tore his calf in a benches-clearing brawl.
Teams could choose to ignore this and focus on the 39-year-old's larger body of work. He's mostly been an elite reliever since 2013, putting up a 2.15 ERA and striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings. These numbers should make him stand out to teams in need of a late-innings reliever.
Brad Ziegler, RHP
Brad Ziegler has done a little bit of everything in his nine-year career. He's been a closer, a setup man and at times just a specialist. He's been good at it all, racking up a 2.44 career ERA.
All this will earn the 37-year-old plenty of looks on the open market. He'll especially appeal to teams that want a guy to come in and get a ground ball. With a career 66.3 ground-ball percentage, that's what Ziegler does best.
Sergio Romo, RHP
Sergio Romo is several years past his best days, when he was an All-Star reliever and champion closer with a 2.03 ERA between 2010 and 2013. But he's remained a solid reliever in the three years since and may loom larger on the radar after going on a dominant run to finish out 2016.
If nothing else, Romo is a good guy to be a right-handed specialist. The .538 OPS he's given up to right-handed batters in his career is the best of any qualified reliever since 2008.
Joe Blanton, RHP
Joe Blanton's stock was not helped by his rocky performance in the National League Championship Series. However, teams are more likely to focus on what he's done over the last two years.
The 35-year-old former starter has put up a 2.65 ERA since the start of 2015, striking out over a batter per inning with only 2.4 walks per nine innings. He can also go more than one inning at a time, which is a more important asset for a reliever now than it has been in years.
Javier Lopez, LHP
Remember when we were talking about lefty specialists a while ago? This guy won't come as cheaply after pulling down $13 million in a three-year contract that ran from 2014 to 2016, but he's the best left-handed specialist there is.
Second-Level Free Agents: Position Players
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Wilson Ramos, C
Wilson Ramos was in line to be one of the top players on the free-agent market. After years of showing promise here and there, he finally broke out in 2016 with an .850 OPS and 22 home runs. He also threw out 37 percent of would-be base-stealers.
But then Ramos had to go and tear his ACL in late September. Suffice it to say that complicates his place in free agency. The 29-year-old is still going to be in demand, but teams likely won't rush to give him his desired contract. According to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post, that's a four- to five-year deal.
Neil Walker, 2B
Neil Walker is in the same boat as Ramos. He was putting himself in line for a big payday with his 2016 performance, setting a career high with an .823 OPS and tying a career high with 23 home runs.
Then Walker had season-ending back surgery in early September. This isn't as bad as a torn ACL, but it's not the kind of thing that looks good on a 30-year-old second baseman—much less on one who relies on his bat to generate value. Walker will draw interest, but it may be more tepid than he's expecting.
Carlos Beltran, OF/DH
The end seemed to be near for Carlos Beltran as recently as 2014. Then he rebounded in 2015 and rebounded even more in 2016, posting an .850 OPS and hitting 29 home runs.
The catch with Beltran, 39, is that he's more a designated hitter than he is an outfielder. That will limit his market. But as far as interested parties will be concerned, that's an opportunity to pick up a good hitter for less than the $15 million he earned in 2016.
Mike Napoli, 1B
Mike Napoli had a strong finish to a rough 2015 season and kept right on going in 2016. He posted an .800 OPS and set a new career high with 34 home runs.
The 35-year-old does come with some red flags, including a high strikeout rate and defense that didn't rate well in 2016. But a power bat is a power bat is a power bat. After earning just $7 million in 2016, Napoli should get a nice raise this winter.
Josh Reddick, RF
Josh Reddick put himself on the map with a power breakout back in 2012. In the last few years, he's turned himself into more of a contact hitter while continuing to play mostly good defense in right field.
The catch with Reddick, as always, is that he needs to play only against right-handed pitching. He owns a .787 OPS against righties and a .640 OPS against lefties. While this will limit the 29-year-old's negotiating power, he should still come away with a multiyear deal.
Michael Saunders, LF
It's tempting to look at Michael Saunders as a poor man's Reddick, but the comparison doesn't quite work. Saunders isn't as good a defender and doesn't own right-handed pitching like Reddick does. His career OPS against righties is just .722.
But as Saunders reminded everyone in 2016, he hits when he's healthy. He posted an .815 OPS and hit a career-high 24 home runs. This should earn the 29-year-old a multiyear deal worth plenty more than the $2.9 million he made in 2016.
Matt Wieters, C
Last year's free-agent market was denied Matt Wieters when he accepted a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles may be gun-shy about giving it to him again, which would allow him to enter the market fresh off an All-Star season with no strings attached.
Buyer beware. Wieters is still a capable defender in a traditional sense, showing a strong arm and an ability to keep pitches in front of him. But he doesn't abide by the modern emphasis on pitch framing. Meanwhile, he needed help from Oriole Park at Camden Yards to put up even a .711 OPS in 2016.
Carlos Gomez, OF
Carlos Gomez struggled badly in his year with the Houston Astros, OPS'ing just .619 in 126 games. He's represented here because of how he found himself again with the Texas Rangers after he was released. In 33 games with them, he had a .905 OPS with eight homers and five steals.
Teams must be aware that Gomez is no longer the elite all-around player he was in 2013 and 2014. But the 30-year-old's performance with Texas is a hint he's not done as a quality player just yet. In a weak market, that will help him draw a crowd.
Kendrys Morales, DH
Kendrys Morales has an $11 million mutual option for 2017. Since the Royals are strapped for cash and he has a chance to go get another multiyear deal, that's probably not happening.
Morales' market will be limited by the fact he's strictly a DH. But he's a good one. After a rough season in 2014, he rebounded with an .821 OPS and 52 homers over the last two seasons in Kansas City. It's easy to imagine the 33-year-old landing a solid two-year deal.
Top-Level Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Rich Hill, LHP
It's slim pickings at the top of the free-agent starting pitcher food chain. This 36-year-old journeyman is the best there is.
Still, this is no ordinary 36-year-old journeyman. Rich Hill has put up a 2.00 ERA in 24 starts since re-emerging late in 2015. He's struck out 165 batters in 139.1 innings through the use of his wicked curveball and electric fastball. Also not to be overlooked is how frequently he pounds the strike zone.
Hill's health unfortunately can't be taken for granted. The blisters he struggled with in 2016 are only the latest entry in a long list of aches and pains. But this won't stop him from vastly improving on the $6 million contract he got for 2016. Even a short two- or three-year deal should pay him a lot.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
Do not scoff at the notion that Jeremy Hellickson belongs in this discussion. He had a good year in 2016, posting a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings. If anything, this underrates him.
Hellickson has always had good control and a great changeup. The difference for him in 2016 was a more diverse array of fastballs to set it up. As Brooks Baseball shows, he downplayed his four-seamer and threw more sinkers and cutters. Among the benefits was much-improved contact management. He had his best soft-hit and hard-hit rates since way back in 2010 and 2011.
The Philadelphia Phillies only paid the 29-year-old $7 million to find himself again in 2016. He should do notably better than that in a multiyear deal.
Top-Level Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Aroldis Chapman has made 314 appearances since 2012 and has compiled a 1.84 ERA and struck out 15.7 batters per nine innings. Here's a fun fact: According to Baseball Savant, the lefty has thrown 1,598 more 100-mph fastballs than any other pitcher on record.
Chapman does come with some baggage. He opened 2016 serving a 30-game suspension for his involvement in an alleged domestic violence incident.
But since that didn't hurt his value on the summer trade market, it's unlikely to hurt his free-agent value. Chapman has a chance of making like David Robertson and Jonathan Papelbon and finding a $40-50 million contract.
Kenley Jansen, RHP
Kenley Jansen hasn't been much worse than Chapman over the last five seasons. He's used his Mariano Rivera-esque cutter to carve out a 2.22 ERA in 333 appearances, striking out 13.6 and walking only 2.1 batters per nine innings.
Jansen's latest trick is showing he can be used for more than just three outs. He had six appearances in which he recorded four or more outs in the regular season in 2016 and five more in the postseason.
Since teams are going to be in a rush to add their own Andrew Miller-like relief ace this winter, this is a big feather in Jansen's cap. The 29-year-old could do just as well as Chapman, if not better.
Mark Melancon, RHP
Mark Melancon has been as steady as they come since 2013. In 297 appearances, he's logged a 1.80 ERA with a 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
He isn't overpowering, topping out in the low 90s with his velocity. But there's lots of movement on his cutter and curveball, and he spots both pitches with surgical precision. That's useful for not walking guys. It's also useful for missing barrels. Only Zach Britton has a higher soft-hit rate since 2015.
Since Melancon is 31, trying to use him like a Miller-esque relief ace would carry a bit more risk. However, that won't stop him from fielding calls from teams that either can't afford or have missed out on Chapman and Jansen.
Top-Level Free Agents: Position Players
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Note: This was written before Dexter Fowler declined his $9 million option for 2017 with the Cubs.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF
There wasn't much doubt that he would, but Adam Rubin of ESPN.com reported Yoenis Cespedes will indeed opt out of the last two years and $47.5 million of his contract with the New York Mets.
Teams are going to have some reservations about pursuing Cespedes. He's more a hot-and-cold hitter than a consistent superstar. He's prone to inconsistency on defense as well. It's also frustrating that he rarely seems to be 100 percent healthy.
Nonetheless, this is a guy with an .876 OPS and 66 home runs over the last two seasons. On this market, there's not another talent quite like him. He should do better than the three-year, $75 million contract he settled for last winter.
Justin Turner, 3B
Talk about a late bloomer. After struggling to make it as a utility player earlier in his career, Justin Turner blossomed with an .856 OPS and 50 home runs over the last three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Per the metrics, he also played a good third base.
The fact that Turner is heading for his age-32 season will give some teams pause. All the same, it won't be surprising if he exceeds the four-year, $52 million contract Chase Headley got two years ago.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH
This is the power bat everyone's going to want this winter. Edwin Encarnacion has averaged 39 home runs and slugged .544 over the last five seasons. He may be 33, but he showed no signs of losing any power in hitting 42 homers with a .529 slugging percentage in 2016.
Encarnacion's consistency will be compromised if his strikeout rate keeps heading northward. And as a first base/DH type, he doesn't offer much defensive value. Even still, he's likely to have his eye on the four-year, $68 million contract Victor Martinez got two years ago.
Mark Trumbo, OF/1B/DH
Mark Trumbo seemed to be fading out of existence before 2016, but then he came roaring back to lead MLB with 47 home runs with an .850 OPS.
The red flag is that Trumbo struggled in the second half, hitting .214 with a sub-.300 OBP. To this extent, he was the same thing in 2016 that he's always been: a powerful but painfully inconsistent hitter. He also brings nothing to the table on defense.
That's not going to stop teams from drooling over him this winter, however. If Nelson Cruz could get $57 million over four years for his power, Trumbo may be able to as well.
Ian Desmond, OF
Ian Desmond is another guy who resurrected his career in 2016. After bombing hard as a shortstop in 2015, he converted to the outfield and provided the Texas Rangers with a .782 OPS and 22 homers and 21 steals in 2016.
Like with Trumbo, the catch with Desmond is that he also reverted to his bad old self with a .237 average and sub-.300 OBP in the second half.
But since he has more talents (namely baserunning and defense) to sell, this shouldn't hurt him too badly. He may get Nick Markakis or Melky Cabrera money in the $40 million range and possibly even more.
Jose Bautista, OF/DH
Following rough seasons in 2012 and 2013, Jose Bautista revived his stock in 2014 and 2015 by OPS'ing .920 and slamming 75 home runs.
Now, it's back down again after he battled injuries and fell to an .817 OPS with 22 home runs in 2016. He may also be done as an effective right fielder, as his once-strong right arm has seemingly been decommissioned by the right shoulder injury he suffered in 2015.
None of this will stop Bautista from walking away with a big contract, however. He may not get what he wants, but there's always good money for hitters who can get on base and hit the ball far.
Top Trade Targets: Pitchers
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Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox
How will teams deal with the lack of aces on the open market? Joel Sherman of the New York Post is probably right about them kicking around various trade scenarios. Including ones involving Chris Sale.
Who wouldn't want to trade for a guy with a 3.04 ERA and a 5.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last five seasons? And this one just so happens to be controlled through 2019 for just $38 million.
Of course, Sale's price is going to be astronomical. Any team that wants him will have to start by putting its best prospects on the table. And even then...
Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Sherman also mentioned Justin Verlander as a target. He may be the more realistic one. According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Detroit Tigers will be open for business and willing to trade anyone.
Verlander had a rough time for a few years but rode improved health and fastball velocity to 3.04 ERA in 227.2 innings in 2016. Since he'll be turning 34 soon, the Tigers would be wise to sell high.
The catch? Verlander is still owed at least $84 million through 2019. The Tigers also might not want to deal him for prospects. These things mean a solid chance he stays put.
Jose Quintana, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Jose Quintana is another name mentioned by Sherman. He isn't as good as Sale, but he's nothing if not consistent. He's tossed at least 200 innings four years in a row and put up a 3.35 ERA. Like Sale, he's young (27) and has an affordable contract. He's under control through 2020 at less than $40 million.
Quintana would cost a team some top prospects, for sure. But if it's a choice between him and some prospects and Sale and all prospects, teams could gravitate toward Quintana.
Zack Greinke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Sherman isn't alone in speculating whether Zack Greinke could move this winter. He disappointed in the first year of his six-year, $206.5 million contract, and the management team that gave him that deal is gone.
Greinke is a good bounce-back candidate going forward, but the Diamondbacks would still be selling low if they put him out there. That will make it tough to offload the $172.5 million he's still owed. They could choose to hold onto him and hope he rebuilds his value.
Wade Davis, RHP, Kansas City Royals
This one comes from Jon Heyman at Today's Knuckleball. Wade Davis is really good, and the Royals need to save some money this offseason. Two and two together equals teams lining up to take his $10 million option off Kansas City's hands.
The elephant in the room is the arm trouble that Davis ran into this season. But that doesn't make it easy to ignore his 1.18 ERA and 4.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last three seasons. Instead, the best question will be how much value he has in a market populated with quality free-agent relievers.
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports is right to wonder if Zach Britton could find his way to the block this winter. His value is sky-high after putting up a 0.54 ERA in 69 appearances in 2016, and the Orioles would still have a deep bullpen even without him.
However, the same question regarding Davis' value also applies to Britton. And if demand for him turned out to be on the low side, the Orioles would surely keep him and retain their bullpen.
David Robertson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Let's end with another name dropped by Sherman. If the White Sox are indeed in a dealing mood this winter, David Robertson could be their first choice to go.
This would be tricky, though. Robertson has been just OK in posting a 3.44 ERA in the first two seasons of a four-year, $46 million contract. That deal still has $25 million remaining on it. Asking teams to take some or all of that on is ambitious in this winter's market.
Top Trade Targets: Position Players
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Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
According to the aforementioned report from Buster Olney, Miguel Cabrera could also be on the block this winter. The timing is right to trade him, as his value is up following a year in which he hit .316 with a .956 OPS and 38 home runs.
The catch? Cabrera is 33 with $212 million remaining on his contract. Even if a team does a bad-contract swap with the Tigers, it would still owe a lot of money to an aging star.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
This is another one from Jon Heyman. He wonders if the Toronto Blue Jays could talk with the Cincinnati Reds about Joey Votto. But if the Reds make him available, there would surely be other suitors.
Votto is basically the National League version of Cabrera. His value is up after he hit .326 with a .985 OPS and 29 homers in 2016. But he's also 33 with $179 million remaining on his contract. Even a bad-contract swap would come with some risk.
Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This comes from Rob Biertempfel at TribLive.com, who says there's a "growing sense" the Pirates will trade Andrew McCutchen before his contract is up in either 2017 or 2018—depending on his option.
This would have been unthinkable a year ago. But then the former MVP struggled with a .766 OPS on offense and bad metrics on defense. The Pirates would be selling low, but McCutchen still has the kind of star power that could attract some young talent in a trade.
Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors isn't the only one who's speculated about the Brewers trading Ryan Braun this winter. The veteran has had two good years in a row, OPS'ing .879 with a total of 55 home runs and 40 stolen bases. That's a good way to rebuild value following a PED suspension in 2013.
Braun's contract runs through 2020 with $80 million left on it. That's a big commitment, but it doesn't make the 32-year-old as immovable as Cabrera or Votto. As such, he could actually move.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Per Olney, Ian Kinsler is another player the Tigers could trade this winter. And he's probably the best bet to be moved.
Kinsler is getting up there in age at 34, but he refuses to be anything but a quality second baseman on both offense and defense. He had an .831 OPS with great defensive metrics in 2016. Including his 2018 option, the $23 million he's owed over the next two years shouldn't scare teams off.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
Sherman wonders whether the new management in Minnesota could try to capitalize on Brian Dozier's huge 2016 season by dangling him on the trade market.
His value is indeed high after he slugged 42 home runs with an .886 OPS in 2016. He's also owed just $15 million in the next two years of his contract. Rather than go for an older, more expensive second baseman such as Kinsler, teams could jockey for position in Dozier's market instead.
Charlie Blackmon, CF, Colorado Rockies
This is more speculation from Todd. Carlos Gonzalez is the biggest name the Colorado Rockies have in their outfield, but it's Charlie Blackmon who would be most desirable if they decide to trade an outfielder.
For one, he's coming off a huge season in which he hit .324 with a .933 OPS and 29 homers and 17 steals. For two, the 30-year-old should stay relatively cheap in his last two years of arbitration. He could be the Rockies' ticket to a talented young pitcher or two.
J.D. Martinez, RF, Detroit Tigers
Yet another Tigers trade chip. J.D. Martinez will appeal to any team in need of a bat, as his has produced an .898 OPS and 83 home runs over the last three seasons.
Martinez is also under contract for a reasonable $11.75 million next season. His walk year could thus fetch the Tigers a nice piece of controllable talent.
Justin Upton, LF, Detroit Tigers
Moving Justin Upton, on the other hand, won't be so easy. A late surge allowed him to salvage his season with a .775 OPS and 31 home runs. But if he doesn't opt out after 2017, any team that trades for him would be on the hook for over $110 million.
That's a lot of money for a player who's always been streaky and who's now just a year away from turning 30. The market may not have much demand for Upton.
Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers
We might as well end with another Tiger. Victor Martinez's trade market will be limited by the fact he's strictly a DH, not to mention one with $36 million remaining on his contract.
However, at least Martinez re-established his value in 2016 after a rough 2015. He hit .289 with an .826 OPS and 27 home runs. If a team in need of a DH somehow misses out on the options available on the open market, the Tigers might have a chance of moving the 37-year-old.
Teams to Watch
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Detroit Tigers
You've read (and I've typed) the word "Tigers" so much in this space that it would be the height of foolishness to ignore them now.
It's not just how many stars they have to trade. It's also what they could do with any trades they make. This isn't going to be a fire sale that kicks off a rebuild. Rather, the idea is to do a quick and extensive retooling that completely reshapes the team.
"We want to get younger. We want to get leaner," said general manager Al Avila, per MLB.com's Jason Beck. "We want to run the organization without having to go over our means."
This won't be easy to pull off. But with their players' value up and the free-agent market weak, the Tigers' best chance for this kind of strategy is now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Well, they're the Dodgers. They have more money than all the gods put together and World Series aspirations that they've fallen short of four years in a row.
Even still, this is no ordinary offseason for the Dodgers.
Their list of free agents includes Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, Chase Utley, Brett Anderson and a few more. That's a lot of holes to fill, and that's without even getting into pre-existing holes in places like left field and their starting rotation.
The Dodgers have the financial resources to fill these holes on the open market. They can also use their young talent as keys to the trade market. Either way, they'll be busy.
Houston Astros
Speaking of falling short of expectations, the Astros didn't use their return to the postseason in 2015 as a launching pad to better things in 2016. They won just 84 games and missed the playoffs.
Nonetheless, they're still loaded with explosive young talent, particularly around their infield. If they can flesh out their outfield and starting pitching and fill holes at catcher and first base, they could take off.
They could do this by being active on all fronts. Their farm system still has some trade chips in it, and right now they have less than $70 million projected for their 2017 payroll.
As general manager Jeff Luhnow told Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, "We're going to have the resources to go out and sign some players."
Toronto Blue Jays
After going to their second straight American League Championship Series in 2016, the Blue Jays are at a crossroads. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders headline a lengthy list of free agents, leaving two choices: rebuild or retool.
There's a strong argument for the Blue Jays to rebuild. Just ask Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. But with Josh Donaldson and Tory Tulowitzki still anchoring their lineup and Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada leading their rotation, retooling isn't a bad idea either.
Besides, what the Blue Jays need most is power and relief pitching. Those are two things the open market has in good supply. Expect them to load up their shopping cart.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals are yet another team that fell short of expectations at the end of 2016. Now they have to worry about two of their best players testing the free-agent waters: Wilson Ramos and Mark Melancon.
But it's what the Nationals could do on the trade market that makes them intriguing.
As Jeff Todd outlined at MLB Trade Rumors, the Nationals have more starting pitching depth than they know what to do with. Given the circumstances on the open market, that opens up plenty of trade doors. They can look to build deals around top prospects Lucas Giolito or Reynaldo Lopez or look to promote them and instead dangle Gio Gonzalez or Tanner Roark.
Whatever the case, this is a team that needs to be bold in its pursuit to live up to expectations. Expect it to act accordingly.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
