Fact or Fiction on All of Week 1's Hottest MLB Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

The World Series is over and, as a result, MLB's offseason has officially begun.

We've already seen a pair of trades go down, with the Cincinnati Reds sending pitcher John Lamb to the Tampa Bay Rays for cash, and Detroit shipping outfielder Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for pitching prospect Victor Alcantara.

It's going to be a hectic offseason to be sure, one that's filled with as much, if not more trade speculation than free-agent chatter, given the relative dearth of available talent on the open market.

Speaking of free agency, will a team forgo extending a qualifying offer to a four-time All-Star, a move that would assuredly accelerate his departure? Is winning a World Series ring enough to keep a key component of a world championship lineup in place? Has the party come to an end in Cleveland?

We'll hit on all that and more in this week's edition of fact or fiction.

Fact: Texas Will Trade Derek Holland

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There wouldn't normally be much interest in a 30-year-old pitcher that has struggled to stay healthy for three years and is due $11 million in the upcoming season.

But the offseason market for available starters is anything but normal, making it not only feasible, but likely that the Texas Rangers will be able to find another team willing to take Derek Holland off their hands.

Holland, who pitched to a 4.95 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 107.1 innings of work in 2016, has already drawn interest from a few teams, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, who adds that a deal could come together rather soon.

While Texas is in need of rotation depth, there's no shortage of back-end starters on the free-agent market, most of whom are capable of matching Holland's mediocre performance. The Rangers would almost assuredly be able to sign one for less than it'd cost to keep Holland in the mix.

Fiction: Mike Napoli Will Stay in Cleveland

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The party at Napoli's was fun while it lasted.

Mike Napoli, who was far more valuable as a leader in Cleveland's clubhouse than he was a presence in its lineup—and his 34 home runs and 101 RBI were a big part of the lineup—will be getting down with a whole new set of teammates in the spring.

Sure, there's mutual interest to get a new deal done, as Indians general manager Mike Chernoff recently told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, but that hardly means a new agreement will actually be reached.

Napoli's production was bolstered by his ability to stay healthy, appearing in a career-high 150 games. But with Napoli entering his age-35 season, "it seems overly optimistic to think he can repeat that," as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wrote.

While he was nearly invisible in the playoffs, hitting just .173 with a .232 on-base percentage and .521 OPS, and there are questions about his durability, Napoli's services will be in demand—from both contenders and noncontenders alike.

With the Indians facing a rising payroll—something we'll delve into more deeply on Saturday—the money they'd have to spend on Napoli—who figures to be looking for a multiyear deal at a significantly higher salary than the $7 million he earned in 2016—can be better spent elsewhere.

Besides, Cleveland already has his replacement at first base in Carlos Santana, whose $12 million team option will be picked up, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.

Finding warm bodies to rotate through the designated hitter spot that Santana will be vacating won't be hard for manager Terry Francona. Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes, both of whom are coming off serious shoulder injuries, are candidates to spend at least one day a week as the team's primary DH.

Fact: Kansas City Will Trade Wade Davis

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Kansas City has every reason in the world to keep Wade Davis as its closer in 2017.

The Royals are entering their final year with the core of its World Series championship club under contract, with Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all eligible for free agency after the 2017 season ends.

It's not hard to envision the Royals making one more run with that group intact. Yet despite the team's decision to pick up his $10 million option for 2017, as reported by Heyman, trade rumors continue to swirl around the All-Star closer.

Kansas City's asking price isn't cheap—the team is looking for controllable starting pitching in return, a team source tells the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. But considering that Davis has pitched to a 1.18 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in the three seasons since he transitioned into a full-time relief role, it's not exorbitant.

While there's no shortage of big-time closers available as free agents, the best of the bunch—Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon—are all going to command higher annual salaries on multiyear deals than what Davis is due in 2017.

For clubs that aren't willing—or able—to make a run at one of them, trading for Davis is a realistic fallback option. That he's capable of thriving as either a setup man or closer—just like Andrew Miller—only makes him more attractive to those teams.

The Royals might not get a future ace in the deal, but they'll be able to add much-needed depth and talent to a starting rotation that lacked both by trading away their All-Star closer.

Fiction: Dexter Fowler Will Re-Sign with the Cubs

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I hate to be this guy, but the Chicago Cubs aren't going to keep the band together.

While not ruling out a possible return to Wrigleyville, Dexter Fowler announced his intention to go solo less than 24 hours after leading off Game 7 of the World Series with a solo home run during an interview on SportsCenter (via ESPN.com).

"I'm definitely going to be a free agent...You can't control what goes on, but I loved my time in Chicago and I'm definitely not counting them out, but we'll see what God has planned for us now," Fowler said.

What awaits Fowler is a slew of multiyear offers from teams in need of a leadoff hitter, a center fielder or both. His list of pursuers could include the likes of Seattle, St. Louis, Texas and Toronto, not to mention that other baseball team in Chicago—the one that calls the South Side of the city home.

With a healthy Kyle Schwarber joining Albert Almora Jr., Jason Heyward, Jorge Soler and Ben Zobrist in a suddenly crowded Cubs outfield, there's little room for the reigning world champions (how's that sound, Chicago?) to fit its former table-setter into the picture—much less on a lucrative, multiyear pact.

Fact: Baltimore Won't Extend a Qualifying Offer to Matt Wieters

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Is Matt Wieters worth $17.2 million?

Aside from the financial cost, there's little risk involved for the Orioles in extending a qualifying offer to the veteran backstop.

If he accepted, he'd provide a stable presence behind the plate, allowing Caleb Joseph to remain a backup and top prospect Chance Sisco to spend the year in Triple-A, where he's played four games. If he declined, the Orioles would be guaranteed a compensatory draft pick when he signed elsewhere.

But the Orioles have a number of players due significant raises in arbitration, as we looked at last month, a list that includes Zach Britton, Manny Machado and Chris Tillman.

That's playing into Baltimore's decision-making process, according to MASN Sports' Roch Kubatko, who hears that the Orioles are leaning toward not extending the QO to their longtime catcher.

While letting Wieters walk would leave the club thin behind the plate, there are plenty of veteran catchers available in free agency, including Jason Castro and former Oriole Nick Hundley, who could be signed as stopgap options for the 2017 season while the club waits for Sisco to be ready to take over.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).