The Most Likely Player from All 30 MLB Teams to Be Traded This Offseason
We've already spent a good deal of time looking at the upcoming free-agent market, breaking down the top players available and searching for potential fits on a team-by-team basis.
However, this year's trade market could prove to be just as interesting.
With such a limited pool of starting pitchers available, contending teams are expected to push hard for controllable young arms, and that could mean plenty of prospects and MLB-level players alike changing hands this offseason.
With that in mind, what follows is a look at the most likely player to be traded from each MLB team this offseason.
The selections were made based on a combination of rumors, team needs, projected arbitration figures and team outlook for the 2016 season and beyond.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP/RP Rubby De La Rosa
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have some work to do this offseason after a wildly disappointing 2016 season that began with expectations of contention and ended with 93 losses.
There doesn't appear to be many moving parts on the roster, as any attempt at a quick turnaround will likely come from hoping guys like Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller rebound and others like A.J. Pollock and David Peralta can return to full health.
One player worth keeping an eye on as an under-the-radar trade target for teams in search of cheap pitching is right-hander Rubby De La Rosa.
The 27-year-old is out of minor league options and projected for a $3 million salary in arbitration, but appears to be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot.
Greinke and Miller will likely man two of the spots, with Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley and Braden Shipley all in the mix to round out the staff.
De La Rosa made 10 starts and three relief appearances last season, posting a 4.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 50.2 total innings.
With a mid-90s fastball and a playable slider-changeup combination to back it, De La Rosa could be a nice low-cost target for teams looking to add an arm in the thin starting pitching market, and he looks to be an expendable piece in Arizona.
Atlanta Braves: 2B Jace Peterson
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The Ozzie Albies era is coming for the Atlanta Braves, and it's coming quickly.
The 19-year-old split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a stellar .292/.358/.420 line with 33 doubles, 10 triples, six home runs and 30 stolen bases as one of the youngest position players in the upper levels of the minors.
That means Jace Peterson's time with the team could be coming to a close.
Peterson came over from San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel trade and served as the team's everyday second baseman in 2015.
He struggled early in 2016 and was eventually demoted to the minors in favor of veteran Kelly Johnson, but he returned on June 10 and hit .265/.362/.389 with 15 doubles, seven home runs and 25 RBI in 358 plate appearances the rest of the way.
The 26-year-old is under team control through the 2020 season and has some versatility with the ability to play third base as well as the outfield, so he could generate some interest if shopped.
Baltimore Orioles: RP Zach Britton
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Hold on Orioles fans. Before you grab for the torches and pitchforks, just hear me out.
Remember when the Orioles traded All-Star closer Jim Johnson, fresh off of back-to-back 50-save seasons, in order to avoid paying him a salary that was set to jump from $6.5 million to $10 million?
Zach Britton remembers.
"You saw it with Jim Johnson, once the salary got up to a certain point, he got traded. I think I’m kind of approaching there. So I don’t know how long I’m going to be here," Britton told Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com. "You see how many relievers are on the move nowadays. But it’d be nice to stay here."
Britton is projected to earn $11.4 million in arbitration next season, up from $6.75 million this past year.
It's hard to say he's not worth the bump in salary after authoring one of the best seasons ever by a relief pitcher. The 28-year-old converted all 47 of his save chances with a 0.54 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
However, for an Orioles team with other significant needs to fill and two potential in-house closer candidates in Brad Brach and Darren O'Day, trading Britton now could be the right move for the franchise.
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Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
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The smart money is on Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi staying put this offseason, regardless of what potential trades the Boston Red Sox decide to explore.
With that in mind, the centerpiece of any blockbuster deal that might come to fruition could be slugging third base prospect Rafael Devers.
Devers turned 20 years old earlier this week, and he's coming off of a highly productive full season at the High-A level.
With a .282/.335/.443 line that included 32 doubles, eight triples, 11 home runs and 71 RBI, he continued to flash hit and power tools that both have the potential to be plus once he reaches the majors.
There are still some questions whether he will be able to stick at third base or be forced across the diamond to first, but his bat will play anywhere and he has one of the highest offensive ceilings in all of baseball.
The Red Sox are essentially locked into Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts around the infield for the foreseeable future, and Travis Shaw will do his best to hold off Moncada, but he figures to take over as the everyday third baseman at some point in 2017.
While he could slide into the DH role, the established infield makes Devers relatively expendable, and a prospect package with him as the centerpiece could make the Red Sox players for any significant trade chips they may target.
Chicago Cubs: IF Jeimer Candelario
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It's a tough time to be an infield prospect in the Chicago Cubs organization.
Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Addison Russell and Kris Bryant make up what is unquestionably the best all-around infield in the game, and they're not going anywhere.
Rizzo is signed through 2021 on a team-friendly deal, while the other three are all arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season as well before reaching free agency for the first time.
In other words, barring injury, the team doesn't have much use for an up-and-coming infielder.
Jeimer Candelario fits neatly into that category.
The 22-year-old hit .283/.376/.464 with 39 doubles, 13 home runs and 77 RBI while splitting the season between Double-A and Triple-A. He was also 1-for-11 in a brief five-game tour with the big league club.
Gap power and plate discipline have always been the calling cards of the young third baseman, as he has three 30-plus double seasons to his credit and carries a 10.7 percent career walk rate.
He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors at this point, but doesn't have a clear-cut future role with the Cubs either, so expect him to suffer a similar fate to Dan Vogelbach, who was finally traded at the July deadline.
Chicago White Sox: SP Chris Sale
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A potential Chris Sale trade figures to be one of the biggest stories of the MLB offseason.
Despite another tough season for the Chicago White Sox, Sale still seems happy to be suiting up for the South Siders and it doesn't appear that he'll be requesting a trade anytime soon.
"I don’t worry about that stuff," Sale told Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago about seeing his name come up in trade talks. “That will shake out on its own. I wear this uniform with a lot of pride. I hope I can continue to do that."
The 27-year-old won't come cheap, but in a paper-thin market for pitching, it's not out of the question to think a contender could come along with an offer that's simply too good to pass up.
It was another terrific all-around season for Sale in 2016, as he went 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 233 strikeouts in 226.2 innings. That should be good enough to earn him a top-five finish in Cy Young voting for the fourth consecutive year.
As much as anything, it's his ridiculously team-friendly contract that makes him such a valuable commodity.
Sale will make just $12 million next season, with option years valued at $12.5 million and $13.5 million to follow.
The White Sox could opt to slap a few Band-Aids on the roster this offseason in hopes of making a run at contending once again, then decide to shop Sale in July if things don't pan out.
However, an offseason trade is a very real possibility as well.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Zack Cozart
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The Cincinnati Reds nearly traded Zack Cozart to the Seattle Mariners ahead of the July deadline, and the two sides are expected to rekindle talks this offseason, according to Bob Dutton of the News Tribune.
Cozart was hitting .266/.317/.462 with 23 doubles and 15 home runs at the time of the trade deadline, but slumped to .198/.274/.281 with just six extra-base hits from Aug. 1 on, before missing the final few weeks of the season with a right knee injury.
His absence afforded Jose Peraza more playing time down the stretch, and the young speedster impressed to the point that he's earned himself an everyday gig on the rebuilding Reds, with shortstop appearing to be the most likely landing spot.
Cozart would be a one-year rental for any team making a play for his services, as the 31-year-old is projected to earn a modest $4.7 million in his final year of arbitration.
That limited control and his second-half slump cut into his value a bit, but he's still a plus defender with decent pop. The fact that Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar and Ruben Tejada represent the top free-agent options at the shortstop position also helps his cause.
Cleveland Indians: SS Erik Gonzalez
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The Cleveland Indians will have some holes to plug with Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis both headed for free agency, but don't expect any notable MLB pieces to be on the move via trade.
It's also unlikely that they'll move any more of their top prospects after surrendering Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield, among others, to acquire Andrew Miller at the deadline.
However, they could look to make a mid-level deal for another bat with a trade package centered around Erik Gonzalez.
Francisco Lindor is firmly entrenched as the team's everyday shortstop and prospect Yu-Cheng Chang enjoyed a breakout season in 2016, leaving Gonzalez as somewhat expendable.
Long ranked among the team's top prospects, Gonzalez finally got his first taste of big league action this season at the age of 24, going 5-for-16 with two runs scored following a brief promotion.
That came on the heels of a .296/.329/.450 line in Triple-A that included 31 doubles, 11 home runs and 53 RBI over 460 plate appearances.
On top of his offensive game, he also possesses plus speed, a solid glove and a rocket arm, giving him all the necessary tools to emerge as an everyday option up the middle.
As we noted earlier, the free-agent market for shortstops is virtually non-existent, so Gonzalez could emerge as an under-the-radar target.
Colorado Rockies: CF Charlie Blackmon
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All signs point to the Colorado Rockies making a push to contend in what will be the final season of GM Jeff Bridich's current contract, so there's a good chance the oft-rumored duo of Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon won't be going anywhere this winter.
However, if they do decide to move one of the outfielders, Blackmon would bring a significantly bigger return.
CarGo is under contract for just one more season at a price tag of $20 million.
On the other hand, Blackmon has two more years of arbitration remaining, with a projected salary of $9 million for the upcoming season.
Blackmon also brings the added value of being able to play center field and serve as a catalyst out of the leadoff spot, while the 31-year-old Gonzalez is on the downswing defensively and relies on power to generate his offensive value.
The 30-year-old Blackmon hit .324/.381/.552 with 35 doubles, 29 home runs, 82 RBI and 111 runs scored this season for a career-best 4.4 WAR, so his value has never been higher.
If it means picking up a quality MLB starter with significant control remaining, the Rockies would at least have to consider moving Blackmon, but only if the perfect deal comes along.
Detroit Tigers: RF J.D. Martinez
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The offseason rumor mill generally doesn't start swirling until after the World Series ends, but the Detroit Tigers made waves earlier this month when it was reported that they would be looking to cut payroll and willing to listen to offers for anyone on the roster.
Buster Olney of ESPN offered up the following:
"They will listen to trade offers on everybody.
Miguel Cabrera. Justin Verlander. Ian Kinsler.
Anybody.
Now, there's a big difference between listening to offers and executing trades, and even if some team stepped up and dangled a suitable package for one of the Tigers' bigger stars, that doesn't necessarily mean Detroit would finish the deal, especially after years of conditioning its fan base to expect big-money teams with big names. And there is no indication that what the Tigers will try to do this winter will be anything close to a full-blown fire sale.
But what Detroit will attempt this winter might be similar to what the Yankees did during the 2016 season: transition into a younger (and cheaper) team by extracting value from some of the older and more expensive players. Tigers GM Al Avila seems to be preparing the fan base for the changes to come with his recent remarks.
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With all of that in mind, the team's most likely trade chip appears to be right fielder J.D. Martinez.
Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported that the team is unlikely to pursue an extension with the slugger, and he's entering his final season of team control.
He's hit .299/.357/.540 with 83 home runs over the past three seasons, despite averaging just 499 at-bats during that span, and even in a deep market for outfield bats the 29-year-old should still generate a ton of interest.
Houston Astros: 1B Jon Singleton
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This one is purely speculative, but a change of scenery for Houston Astros first baseman Jon Singleton could be the best move at this point for player and team.
Singleton was signed to a somewhat controversial five-year, $10 million extension that also includes three option years worth a combined $20.5 million just days after making his MLB debut in 2014.
He went on to hit .168/.285/.335 with 13 doubles, 13 home runs and 44 RBI in 362 plate appearances as a rookie, and he's been unable to establish himself as the everyday first baseman since.
The 25-year-old saw just 58 plate appearances at the MLB level in 2015, then spent the entire 2016 season in Triple-A, where he hit an uninspired .202/.337/.390 with 17 doubles, 20 home runs and 66 RBI.
The talent that made him a top-50 prospect three years running from 2011 to 2013, per Baseball America, is still there, and there's still plenty of time for him to put things together.
He could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team with an opportunity to give him regular at-bats. Any team acquiring him would only be on the hook for $4.5 million total over the next two years, including the $500,000 buyout on his first option.
Kansas City Royals: RP Wade Davis
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Even with Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon all set to hit the open market, the Kansas City Royals are already fielding trade interest in closer Wade Davis, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
While all three of those free-agent stoppers will command significant money and years, Davis is a much less significant commitment with a $10 million option for 2017 before reaching free agency next winter.
The 31-year-old still won't come cheap, but it won't take a Andrew Miller-esque haul to pry Davis away from a Royals team that is looking to cut payroll and in serious need of prospect talent.
Their farm system checked in at No. 26 in our year-end rankings. Two impact prospects will likely be the asking price for one of the game's top relievers.
And that's exactly what Davis is, having pitched to a 1.18 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 in 185 appearances over the past three seasons.
The Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals will be looking to replace or re-sign the aforementioned trio of free-agent closers, while the San Francisco Giants are also expected to make a strong push for an elite bullpen arm, so all of those teams figure to be in the mix for Davis.
Los Angeles Angels: RP Cam Bedrosian
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After seeing the prospect haul the Philadelphia Phillies were able to land in exchange for reliever Ken Giles last offseason, teams around the league have to be looking at their controllable relief arms a bit differently.
For a Los Angeles Angels team with hands-down the worst farm system in all of baseball, someone like Cam Bedrosian may provide more value to the organization as a trade chip than he would as a staple in the bullpen for the next several seasons.
The hard-throwing right-hander flashed late-inning stuff during his first two seasons in the majors, but struggled with his command to post a 5.81 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and 5.3 BB/9 over 51 appearances.
Everything seemed to click in 2016, as he lowered his walk rate to 3.1 BB/9 and went on to post a 1.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 with one save and seven holds over 45 appearances.
The 25-year-old is still a year removed from arbitration and under team control through the 2021 season, making him one of the most valuable commodities on the Angels roster.
He currently profiles as the closer of the future for the Angels, but dealing him now could be the best way to maximize his value.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RF Yasiel Puig
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Yasiel Puig rebuilt some value with a .281/.338/.561 line in 65 plate appearances after rejoining the MLB roster in September, but his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers may very well have come to an end when the team was eliminated from the NLCS.
Prior to that late-season surge, he hit a disappointing .260/.320/.386 over 303 plate appearances and continued to be a more of a distraction than an asset before being demoted to the minors immediately following the July 31 trade deadline.
The Milwaukee Brewers won a waiver claim on Puig in August. While there were talks of a potential blockbuster deal built around Ryan Braun, the two sides were unable to come to terms within the short negotiation window.
There have been conflicting reports on just how far those trade talks advanced, but Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball acknowledged that there is merit to the idea that the proposal could be revisited this winter.
Even if it isn't a Braun-for-Puig swap, expect the Dodgers to aggressively shop the 25-year-old this winter, while looking to add another right-handed power bat to slot between Corey Seager and Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup.
Miami Marlins: C J.T. Realmuto
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Anyone who has read my recent articles on the upcoming offseason knows I'm a bit enamored with the idea of a J.T. Realmuto to the Tampa Bay Rays trade in exchange for controllable starting pitching.
There's been no indication to this point that Miami will be willing to part with the young catcher, but his name figures to come up frequently as it scours the trade market for rotation help.
Realmuto took over as the Marlins' primary catcher in 2015 and enjoyed a breakout season offensively in 2016 when he hit .303/.343/.428 with 31 doubles, 11 home runs, 48 RBI, 60 runs and 12 stolen bases for a 2.6 WAR.
The 25-year-old is under team control through the 2020 season, and won't reach arbitration for the first time until next offseason.
Considering the dearth of talent in the Marlins farm system at the moment, they will almost certainly be forced to deal from the big league roster if they hope to land an impact starter on the trade market.
Building a package around Marcell Ozuna is also a possibility, but Realmuto figures to be the more sought-after young bat and the Marlins could be faced with a tough decision as a result.
Milwaukee Brewers: LF Ryan Braun
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There's not much left for the rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers to trade at this point, as they've done a tremendous job turning their veteran assets into high-end minor league talent.
The culmination of their wheeling and dealing was the trades of Jonathan Lucroy, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress this past summer, which netted them a terrific prospect haul and vaulted them into the top tier of MLB farm systems.
The one big piece left on the roster is slugger Ryan Braun.
His image may never fully recover from his 2013 steroid suspension, but his bat certainly has, as he hit .305/.365/.538 with 23 doubles, 30 home runs and 91 RBI for a 4.4 WAR in 2016.
The sticking point in a potential trade is the considerable amount of money the 32-year-old is still owed. An extension signed back in 2011 just kicked in this past year, leaving the Brewers on the hook for $76 million over the next four years.
That's not an entirely outrageous annual salary given his current level of production, and it's back-loaded so he'll make only $17 million in 2020.
Still, it's tough to convince a team to give up quality prospects and take on that type of financial commitment, especially with several big bats available in free agency that won't cost any in-house talent.
Minnesota Twins: 3B Trevor Plouffe
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In hindsight, the Minnesota Twins probably should have traded Trevor Plouffe last winter.
Coming off of a rock-solid season in which he posted a .742 OPS with 35 doubles, 22 home runs and 86 RBI and with limited third base options on the market, he likely would have brought the organization some quality prospect talent.
Instead, he stayed put and wound up playing just 84 games in 2016 while nursing a cracked rib and a left oblique strain.
Now with his salary set to jump from $7.25 million to a projected $8.2 million in his final year of arbitration, and coming off of that injury-plagued campaign, he's a far less appealing trade target.
If the Twins can't find a taker on the trade market, don't be surprised if the 30-year-old is a non-tender casualty.
New York Mets: SS Gavin Cecchini
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The New York Mets don't have any obvious trade candidates on the MLB roster and no clear targets on the trade market either, but one player who could be on the move if they do explore trades is shortstop Gavin Cecchini.
With Asdrubal Cabrera signed through 2017 with a reasonable $8.5 million option for 2018 and No. 1 prospect Amed Rosario expected to replace him as the everyday shortstop once he departs, Cecchini appears to be the odd-man out at this point.
The 22-year-old Cecchini was a first-round pick in 2012. After a slow start to his pro career, he's come on strong the past two seasons.
He posted a .317/.377/.442 line with 37 extra-base hits at the Double-A level in 2015, then followed that up with a .325/.390/.448 line and another 37 extra-base hits in a full season with Triple-A Las Vegas this past season.
He's not a future Gold Glove winner, but he's capable of playing shortstop at the highest level, and could also carve out a role as a super utility type.
At this point he doesn't have anything left to prove in the minors, so he'll either find his way onto the MLB bench or be used to upgrade another area of need.
New York Yankees: C Brian McCann
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The emergence of Gary Sanchez has made Brian McCann an expendable piece for the retooling New York Yankees.
Plugging the 32-year-old in as the everyday DH is one potential solution, but with $17 million owed to him each of the next two seasons they would be better served trading him to a team that needs a catcher and recouping some of that money.
McCann is still a productive hitter, having posted a .242/.335/.413 line with 13 doubles, 20 home runs and 58 RBI this past season.
Those numbers play much better at the catcher position than they would as a DH, though, and his ability to handle a staff is one of his most valuable traits.
A reunion with the Atlanta Braves will be a popular rumor this winter, and it makes sense on some level, but it all comes down to how high the Yankees' asking price will be and how much salary they are willing to absorb.
Brett Gardner also looks like a potential trade candidate, but McCann appears to be the easier of the two to move at this point.
Oakland Athletics: 3B Danny Valencia
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The Oakland Athletics would have moved Danny Valencia at the trade deadline given the opportunity, but a market for his services simply never developed.
Then it was reported in September that he was unlikely to be retained for the 2017 season, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
"His trade value this winter is uncertain: the team was unable to move Valencia at the trade deadline, but his production is good," Slusser wrote.
Indeed, Valencia hit .287/.346/.446 with 22 doubles, 17 home runs and 51 RBI in 517 plate appearances, splitting his time defensively between third base, right field and first base.
However, the 32-year-old was a below-average defender wherever he lined up, and a clubhouse incident with fellow veteran Billy Butler didn't reflect particularly well on him either.
Whether he's traded or non-tendered, it looks like Valencia will be playing elsewhere in 2017.
Philadelphia Phillies: SP Vincent Velasquez
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The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers made it "pretty deep" into trade talks surrounding young right-hander Vincent Velasquez leading up to the trade deadline, according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.
No deal was reached in July, but trading Velasquez is something the rebuilding Phillies could revisit this offseason, something Todd Zolecki of MLB.com sees as a realistic possibility.
Velasquez came to the Phillies as part of the return package for reliever Ken Giles last winter, and he immediately seized a rotation spot.
While there were some bumps along the way for the 24-year-old, his first full season in the majors was largely a success, as he went 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 131 innings of work over 24 starts.
The highlight of the season was his brilliant April 14 start when he allowed just three hits and struck out 16 in a complete-game shutout of the San Diego Padres.
Don't expect the Phillies to be aggressively shopping the young right-hander, but teams will certainly inquire as they seek alternative starting pitching options in a barren free-agent market.
Pittsburgh Pirates: CF Andrew McCutchen
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Insiders: Pirates' trade of McCutchen seems likely.
That was the Oct. 1 headline on an article from Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
"There are people I've talked to who are convinced the Pirates are going to trade McCutchen this winter," MLB Network Radio analyst Jim Duquette told Biertempfel.
That would be a bold move for a small-market club that relies on young, controllable talent to stay competitive.
McCutchen is owed $14 million in the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2017, with a $14.75 million option for the 2018 season that carries a $1 million buyout.
The 30-year-old has been the face of the franchise and a bona fide superstar in the game for several years now, but he's coming off of what is undeniable his worst season in the big leagues.
A pedestrian .256/.336/.430 line with 26 doubles, 24 home runs and 79 RBI, coupled with his declining defense in center field, added up to a dismal minus-0.7 WAR.
That represented the fourth consecutive season he's seen a decline in his WAR, sliding from a peak of 8.1 during his MVP season in 2013.
What sort of trade value he has and whether the Pirates would be willing to sell so low remains to be seen, but there does appear to be at least some merit to the idea that he could be moved this winter.
San Diego Padres: RP Brad Hand
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After making a serious push to contend in 2015, the San Diego Padres and general manager A.J. Preller set to work dismantling the MLB roster and building up the farm system this past year.
As a result, there's not much left in the way of movable parts.
Tyson Ross could be a coveted trade chip at next year's deadline, but first he'll need to prove he's healthy after making just one start on Opening Day and spending the rest of the season on the disabled list.
The Padres have shown a willingness to sell high on their bullpen arms over the years, so perhaps they'll look to cash in one of their standout relievers.
This year's free-agent market is fairly thin on impact lefty relievers, with Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, Boone Logan and Jerry Blevins headlining a group that also includes the likes of Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, Marc Rzepczynski and Javier Lopez.
That could make Brad Hand a valuable asset for teams looking for a younger option with some team control.
A swingman during his time with the Marlins, Hand was used exclusively as a reliever in 2016 and he was used often with an NL-high 82 appearances to his credit.
He racked up 21 holds with a 2.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a career-best 11.2 K/9 in 89.1 innings of work, good for a 1.8 WAR.
With a newfound emphasis on relievers who can throw multiple innings and pitch in a variety of situations, Hand could be in demand this winter.
San Francisco Giants: RF Steven Duggar
24 of 30The San Francisco Giants don't have any obvious trade candidates at the MLB level and are sorely lacking in impact prospects in the minor league ranks, so pinning down a "most likely to be traded" for them is tricky.
With the front office expected to search far and wide for bullpen additions, it's reasonable to think they could explore a trade or two for a quality bullpen arm.
Assuming they won't want to part with the likes of Christian Arroyo or Tyler Beede, outfielder Steven Duggar is a prospect who other teams could target.
Duggar, 22, was an intriguing draft prospect in 2015 as a player whose production at the collegiate level never quite matched up to his impressive tools.
He wound up slipping to the sixth round, but turned heads with a .293/.390/.367 line over 267 plate appearances at the Low-A level after signing.
The Giants jumped him straight to High-A San Jose to begin the 2016 season and he wound up splitting the season between there and Double-A Richmond, posting a .302/.388/.448 line with 28 doubles, 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases.
Speed is his best raw tool, and he has the strike zone understanding and gap power to be a good source of doubles and on-base percentage at the highest level.
His stock is up, perhaps more than any other prospect in the Giants' system, and that should make him a coveted trade piece in any moves the Giants try to pull off this winter.
Seattle Mariners: SP James Paxton
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Amid a bevy of injury issues, James Paxton has looked like one of the best young starters in baseball at times for the Seattle Mariners.
The 27-year-old has just 50 career MLB starts under his belt, despite debuting in September 2013.
They've been an impressive 50 starts, though, as he's gone 18-15 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 253 strikeouts in 286 innings of work for a 4.2 WAR.
He reached new career highs this season with 20 starts and 121 innings of work, and he'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter with a $2.7 million projected salary.
So why would the Mariners consider trading him?
The same reason you see a number of other controllable starting pitchers on this list. Demand is going to be high for pitchers like Paxton with so few quality options on the free-agent market, and the Mariners would be foolish not to at least entertain offers.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Jaime Garcia
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Before deciding whether to place him on the trade block, the St. Louis Cardinals will need to decide whether to exercise their $12 million option on left-hander Jaime Garcia.
For years, the biggest issue for Garcia was staying on the field, as he made 56 total starts over a four-year span from 2012 to 2015.
When he did manage to toe the rubber, the results were largely terrific, including a 2015 season where he went 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts.
He stayed healthy in 2016, reaching the 30-start mark for the first time since 2011, but the results were not quite up to par with what he's shown in the past.
The 30-year-old finished the season 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, posting a 3.0 BB/9 walk rate that was his highest since his rookie season in 2010.
It may not have been front-line production, but in today's market 171.2 innings of 4.67 ERA baseball is still worth $12 million, so expect his option to be exercised.
However, with Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Tommy John-returnee Lance Lynn all vying for rotation spots, shopping Garcia remains a very real possibility.
Tampa Bay Rays: SP Drew Smyly
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The Tampa Bay Rays cashed in one of their controllable arms at the trade deadline, shipping Matt Moore to the San Francisco Giants for infielder Matt Duffy and a pair of highly regarded prospects.
As they continue to look for ways to add cost-effective offense, another starter could be on the move this winter, with Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly the most likely candidates to be dealt.
Smyly is a year further along in the arbitration process, so he carries a higher projected salary ($6.9 million) than Odorizzi ($4.6 million) and one less year of team control.
That's enough for the 27-year-old left-hander to get the edge as the more likely of the two hurlers to be traded, but both players figure to be shopped aggressively this winter when their value may never be higher.
Smyly was 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 175.1 innings, though a 4.49 FIP this year and a 3.11 ERA over 66.2 innings of work in 2015 paints a slightly better picture of what to expect going forward.
It will take landing MLB-ready talent for the Rays to consider moving either pitcher, but it's a price pitching-needy teams will be willing to pay.
Texas Rangers: IF/OF Jurickson Profar
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Jurickson Profar has yet to live up to the expectations that accompanied being named the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2013 season, per Baseball America.
Injuries have played a significant role in slowing his development, as he missed the entirety of the 2014 season and played just 12 games in the minors in 2015, and he is still trying to carve out a steady MLB role.
The 23-year-old saw 307 plate appearances this past season while playing all over the diamond, hitting .239/.321/.338 with 14 extra-base hits, 20 RBI and 35 runs scored for a league-avearge 0.0 WAR.
While his MLB results may be uninspiring to this point, Profar still has tremendous upside, and his name was one of the first to come up when the Rangers and White Sox were discussing a potential Chris Sale deal at the deadline, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
The Rangers will likely be looking to add another quality starter to slot behind Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish and ahead of Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin this offseason, and a package built around Profar could be the route they end up taking.
Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus are locked into the team's starting middle infield spots for the foreseeable future, and the Rangers' need for a third front-line arm could outweigh the value of a promising young super utility player.
Toronto Blue Jays: SP Sean Reid-Foley
29 of 30The Toronto Blue Jays have not been shy about trading away their top prospect talent in recent years, and with a number of holes to fill this offseason, they could be looking to deal once again.
Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders are all set to depart on the offensive side of things, while innings eater R.A. Dickey will need to be replaced in the rotation.
It's unlikely the team will sell low on toolsy outfield prospect Anthony Alford after a disappointing 2016 season, so the centerpiece of a Blue Jays blockbuster could be right-hander Sean Reid-Foley.
The 6'3", 220-pound right-hander sports a terrific four-pitch mix, highlighted by a fastball that touches 98 and a plus slider, helping him punch out 130 batters in 115.1 innings between Single-A and High-A.
The 21-year-old has No. 2 starter upside and he'll likely be the first name out of other teams' mouths when discussing potential trades with the Blue Jays.
Washington Nationals: SP Erick Fedde
30 of 30Assuming Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Victor Robles will all be deemed untouchable this winter, the top prospect in the Washington Nationals system who could be on the move is right-hander Erick Fedde.
The No. 18 overall pick in the 2014 draft, despite undergoing Tommy John surgery a month before the draft, Fedde has returned strong and established himself as a consensus top-100 prospect.
The 23-year-old was 8-5 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 121 innings between High-A and Double-A this season and he could be ready to join an MLB rotation by the second half of next season.
The Nationals will be searching for an outfield bat and some bullpen help this winter, and Fedde is their biggest chip in any potential trade talks.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Projected salaries courtesy of MLBTradeRumors. Contract information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.
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