Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans will be trying to pick up their first road win of the season when they take on the Denver Broncos on Monday night at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

The 4-2 Texans maintain a narrow lead atop the AFC South standings but have struggled with consistency, alternating between wins and losses over their past four games and covering the spread just once during that stretch.

Meanwhile, Denver's recent nine-game straight-up win streak has been halted by outright losses as betting chalk in its past two outings, with the Broncos averaging just 14.5 points per game in those contests.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.2-12.4, Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans will have a little extra motivation to win one for their quarterback, Brock Osweiler, who returns to Denver for the first time since leaving the Broncos for Houston as a free agent during the offseason.

Osweiler has thrown two touchdown passes in three of the Texans' four wins this season, including a pair of second-half scores in Houston's 26-23 comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.

Broncos signal-caller Trevor Siemian has been battling a shoulder injury that affected him in last week's 21-13 loss against the San Diego Chargers, and he could be limited against Houston. The Texans have not surrendered more than 255 passing yards in their six outings to date.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

It's been five years since the Broncos suffered three straight-up losses in a row. Denver, which sits fourth in Super Bowl probability, according to PredictionMachine.com, is also undefeated in its past seven games at Mile High following an outright loss on home turf.

While the Broncos have struggled to find the end zone of late, they continue to own the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 182.3 yards per game and a mere four touchdown passes so far this season.

Denver's defensive line has also tallied a league-leading 21 sacks and is expected to apply constant pressure on Osweiler, who has tossed at least one pick in every game and eight total on the season.

Smart pick

The Broncos are 12-2 SU in their past 14 games when pegged as home favorites of eight or more points, but they have covered the spread in just three of their past nine such outings. Look for Denver to pick up the SU victory but fail to cover the spread on Monday night.

Betting trends

The favored team is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

The total has gone under in eight of the Broncos' last 10 games as favorites.

The total has gone under in four of the Texans' last five games as underdogs.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.