The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 13
After another solid week of plays, we're closing in on making up for our first few slow weeks to the season. With five weeks of NFL regular-season play left, there's plenty of time to end up on the right side of meter.
The last two teams with bye weeks, the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, take their rest this week. We have a 14-game slate remaining this week, but starting next week, we'll have a full 16-game slate for the rest of the year, for the first time since Week 3.
As always, we'll break down unit strength by looking at Football Outsiders' DVOA numbers to see where teams match up well against each other. We'll also take a look at the math from Massey Rating and FiveThirtyEight to see what the numbers suggest lines should be, along with finding team-specific trends on TeamRankings.com.
Record ATS total: 76-82-4
Record ATS last week: 7-5-1
Thursday Night Football: Dallas vs. Minnesota
1 of 16
The line: Dallas -3
The result: Dallas 17, Minnesota 15
After playing on Thanksgiving, the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings went head-to-head on Thursday Night Football this week. While Dallas only had 264 total yards passing and rushing on the night, they held a lead for a majority of the game, because they forced the Vikings to kick field goals.
It wasn't until there were 15 seconds left in the game that Minnesota scored their first touchdown, which put them in a position to tie the game, until they missed the two-point conversion. Still, in one of the best case studies of "Vegas knows," the favorite Cowboys missed the cover by a single point.
This was the country's first taste of what the young Danielle Hunter might have to offer. Minnesota's 22-year-old defensive end posted two sacks and two tackles for a loss in the game, which very well might have been the difference between the squad covering.
Cover: Minnesota
Los Angeles vs. New England
2 of 16
Best home line: New England -13
Best away line: Los Angeles +14.5
What does the New England Patriots offense look like without a fully functional Rob Gronkowski at tight end? The Patriots are always one injury away from sputtering offensively, like when they lost Dion Lewis last year.
New England's run in the NFL is historic but fragile. There's a reason why they've only won a single Super Bowl ring in the past decade.
A lot of things have to come together for a title run. Everyone is beatable around every corner.
The Patriots are three-score favorites against a real NFL team. On average, New England has a margin of victory of minus-5.5 as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. The four teams who fall short of the Patriots' mark have a combined record of 0-7 against the spread as home favorites.
The pick: Los Angeles +14.5
Detroit vs. New Orleans
3 of 16
Best home line: New Orleans -5.5
Best away line: Detroit +7
Since Week 12 of the 2015 season, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 36 passing touchdowns and just six interceptions. To put that into perspective, 23 quarterbacks have thrown at least six interceptions this year alone.
The total in this game is 53.5 points, meaning that the Lions are projected to score about 23 points this week. Since Week 12 of 2015, the Lions have scored 24 or more points nine times.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the New Orleans Saints have the 25th pass defense in the NFL. How exactly are the Saints going to stop the Lions?
If you think that New Orleans is going to win this home game, which isn't a stretch by any means, that's fine. What you should expect from this game, though, is a shootout, and if a shootout is at the key number of three, you start to think about putting money on the dog. By hanging a line as high as seven points, books are putting value on the Lions.
The pick: Detroit +7
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
4 of 16
Best home line: Cincinnati PK
Best away line: Philadelphia +1.5
The Cincinnati Bengals were 12-3-2 against the spread last season, but the 3-7-1 Bengals look nothing like the 12-4 Bengals last season. That hasn't reflected in their lines this season, though.
Cincinnati is still very much receiving the benefit of the doubt in books, because gamblers have bought into the brand of the team. That has led to their 3-8 record against the spread this season.
According to TeamRankings.com, the Philadelphia Eagles have a plus-4.4 average margin of victory against the spread this season, the third-best mark in the NFL. Just because the Eagles recently lost on Monday Night Football, don't forget who these under-performing Bengals are, especially without their star receiver A.J. Green.
The pick: Philadelphia +1.5
Houston vs. Green Bay
5 of 16
Best home line: Green Bay -6
Best away line: Houston +7
As home favorites, the Green Bay Packers have an average margin of victory against the spread of minus-4.4, per TeamRankings.com. The teams below them have a combined record of 3-12-1 against the spread at home.
Don't let one big win on Monday Night Football, leading up to a short week, let you forget about how the Packers have played for the majority of the season. You might be hesitant to bet on Houston here, but they lead the AFC South with a 6-5 record, and the Green Bay Packers have been outscored by a total of 76-112 on a way to a 1-2 record against that division.
If not for the Jaguars throwing a screen play in a short-yardage situation, the Packers could be 0-3. If this line were around three or four points, it would be decent value for Green Bay, but a seven-point line is just too much for this team to cover.
Houston has the 12th-best pass defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. The only defense better at covering the pass than the Texans that the Packers have covered against this season is Philadelphia.
Don't fall for the one-game sample on a short week.
The pick: Houston +7
Kansas City vs. Atlanta
6 of 16
Best home line: Atlanta -3.5
Best away line: Kansas City +4.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are 18-3 straight up in their last 21 regular season games. They are 4.5-point underdogs this week against the Atlanta Falcons, who have only won two of their last six games by more than four points.
The Atlanta Falcons are 2-8 against the spread as home favorites over the last two seasons, according to TeamRankings.com. Kansas City is 10-6 against the spread on the road over the last two season.
It's as simple as that.
The pick: Kansas City +4.5
Miami vs. Baltimore
7 of 16
Best home line: Baltimore -3
Best away line: Miami +3.5
The question you need to ask here is if the Baltimore Ravens, on a neutral field, are better than the Miami Dolphins. When you look at this line, that's the stance that needs to be taken.
Which side of the field-goal game are you more likely to align yourself with? If you think about this game hard enough, you'll side with the Miami Dolphins.
Since handing the keys to the offense to running back Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins have ripped off six straight wins. Now, you may want to make the case for the Baltimore Ravens' run defense, which sounds all good and dandy, but we had this same conversation a few weeks ago before the Dallas Cowboys ran to a 27-17 victory over Baltimore, which still featured a 97-yard game from Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott.
The Ravens' run defense can slow down dominant backs, but they can't shut them down. In the Dolphins' first year under head coach Adam Gase, they are 3-2 against the spread on the road, including a top-10 margin of victory against the spread in that situation, per TeamRankings.com.
Not since 2009 have the Baltimore Ravens finished with a winning record against the spread at home, and the Ravens are currently 5-8-1 against the spread in those situations over the last two seasons.
The pick: Miami +3.5
Denver vs. Jacksonville
8 of 16
Best home line: Jacksonville +5.5
Best away line: Denver -3.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are more than three-point underdogs at home. In that situation, in the last two years under quarterback Blake Bortles, the Jaguars are just 2-2 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com.
While that doesn't sound great, think about it from this perspective: The Jaguars have only been home underdogs four times in the last four years, and with Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian missing practice time, Jacksonville might very well see Paxton Lynch in this situation.
Lynch is now the only first-round quarterback not to be named a full-time starter, after Los Angeles' Jared Goff earned the nod a couple of weeks ago. In Lynch's one NFL start, against a poor Atlanta Falcons' defense, he averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, had an even touchdown-interception ratio and posted just a 81.0 passer rating.
Is that really who you want to be more than a field goal favorite on the road?
The pick: Jacksonville +5.5
San Francisco vs. Chicago
9 of 16
Best home line: Chicago PK
Best away line: San Francisco +2
We're working with small sample sizes here, but Matt Barkley looked like a passable quarterback in his first NFL start. If his name rings a bell, he's the former USC quarterback who returned for his senior season and had his draft stock fall from a potential first overall pick to a Day 3 selection.
After a stint with the Philadelphia Eagles, Barkley landed with the Chicago Bears. Outside of his start, over four seasons, Barkley threw for zero touchdowns and six interceptions, but against Tennessee last week, he threw for three touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Now, your rebuttal might be that the Titans don't have a great defense, and that's true. But the Bears go head-to-head with the San Francisco 49ers this week, who according to Football Outsiders' DVOA numbers have the 24th pass defense and the 30th run defense in the NFL this season.
This line is a virtual pick'em or a true pick'em across the board. The 49ers are 1-10 on the season.
How on earth are they a pick'em on the road? Think.
The pick: Chicago PK
Buffalo vs. Oakland
10 of 16
Best home line: Oakland -3
Best away line: Buffalo +3.5
Since Week 3, after the Bills slipped up with two losses in a five-day span, Buffalo has quietly done very well when running back LeSean McCoy has been totally healthy. In the six games when McCoy has received more than 10 touches since that start, the Bills are 5-1 straight up, with four wins by multiple scores.
To put that into perspective, the Oakland Raiders, despite a 9-2 record, have only two wins by multiple scores on the entire season. The reason for that is their defense, which keeps them in late games.
If you isolate who the Bills are when healthy, they should at least be considered equals with the Raiders, especially after Oakland quarterback Derek Carr injured himself on a botched snap against the Carolina Panthers last week. Oakland's defense is going to be the worst unit on the field, which means that assuming anything more than a three-point line could be dangerous.
The Raiders are 1-3 against the spread this season as home favorites, per TeamRankings.com.
The pick: Buffalo +3.5
Tampa Bay vs. San Diego
11 of 16
Best home line: San Diego -3.5
Best away line: Tampa Bay +4
With short lines, the question to be asked is which team is better. If there is a 3.5-point line, you have to decide if the away team is better, whereas you can simply coast on teams being equal if there is a three-point line.
According to both FiveThirtyEight and the Massey Rating, the Buccaneers are better than the Chargers this season. That alone is enough information to call this game, but there are some other factors to keep in mind.
San Diego has nothing to play for in the strongest division in the NFL, while Tampa Bay is still in the playoff hunt in the NFC South. This week, ESPN's Jim Trotter also let it be known that the Chargers will likely move to Los Angeles.
Starting with the 2011 season, only one of the Chargers' seasons have finished with them posting a winning record against the spread as home favorites. With uncertainty around their franchise, their home-field advantage hasn't been a factor for years, and it's hard to imagine how that will change after this week's news.
At the end of the day, the Buccaneers are a better team playing in a friendly away environment as underdogs. Pull the trigger.
The pick: Tampa Bay +4
Washington vs. Arizona
12 of 16
Best home line: Arizona -1
Best away line: Washington +3
Who do you think the Arizona Cardinals are? Record may not totally reflect talent, but the Arizona Cardinals are 4-6-1 in 2016.
Under quarterback Kirk Cousins over the last two season, the Washington Redskins have a combined record of 11-2-1 against teams which finished the season under .500 or are currently under .500. Why should the Cardinals be favorites at all in this situation?
As home favorites since 2015, Arizona is 5-10 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com, while Washington is 7-4 against the spread as road underdogs under Cousins.
The pick: Washington +3
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh
13 of 16
Best home line: Pittsburgh -5.5
Best away line: New York Giants +7
The New York Giants are the quietest 8-3 team in NFL history. After ripping off six straight wins, they are touchdown underdogs to a 6-5 team.
According to both FiveThirtyEight and Massey Rating, this line is about three points too high, which makes sense, considering the fact that the Steelers are coming off of back-to-back wins and are a "public" team.
It's as simple as that. In New York, the Steelers shouldn't be favorites from a power-ranking perspective, and that's where they are with this line.
Every four years or so, we forget that Eli Manning's Giants have Super Bowl potential. This year is shaping up to prove that once more.
The pick: New York Giants +7
Carolina vs. Seattle
14 of 16
Best home line: Seattle -6.5
Best away line: Carolina +7.5
The Carolina Panthers pass rush is one of the worst units in the league. The Seattle Seahawks pass protection is one of the worst units in the league.
Something has to give here, and it's going to decide the game. With that being said, whoever says they know what is going to happen is just guessing.
The Panthers have only been underdogs once this season, which they covered, but they are two-score underdogs in this game. That means that these Seattle Seahawks, who have scored fewer than seven points in three different games this season, are multiple scores better than a majority of Carolina's opponents this season.
Something doesn't seem right about that. The Seahawks have only won three games by more than a touchdown all season, and two of them were against the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets, who combine for a 4-18 record in 2016.
The pick: Carolina +7.5
Indianapolis vs. New York Jets
15 of 16
Best home line: New York Jets +2.5
Best away line: Indianapolis PK
In the last two years, the Indianapolis Colts have only been road favorites twice, and they failed to cover both games. Think about that for a half of a second.
The Colts, who play in the AFC South, have only been road favorites twice in the last two years, but this nationally televised game, when there are questions about quarterback Andrew Luck's health, is when we want to put them on a pedestal.
This line can currently be found at 2.5 points. That means if it were in Indianapolis, the Colts would be 8.5-point favorites at home. The Colts haven't been more than four-point favorites all season.
The Jets are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games, according to TeamRankings.com, and the two covers they missed were by a combined 2.5 points.
The pick: New York Jets +2.5
Locks of the Week
16 of 16
1) Carolina +7.5 vs. Seattle
2) New York Giants +7 vs. Pittsburgh
3) Buffalo +3.5 vs. Oakland
4) Washington +3 vs. Arizona
5) San Francisco vs. Chicago PK
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