The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 11
After posting a 9-4 record, our fourth winning week in the last six, we're officially over the .500 mark during that time span despite a slow start to the season. With fewer bye weeks coming up, and a large sample size by which to judge teams, now is the perfect time to start looking at gambling lines to keep yourself interested on Sundays if your fantasy team isn't looking so hot.
As always, we'll look at trends using TeamRankings.com's database to search for some hidden gems in specific matchups. We'll also use the math from FiveThirtyEight, Massey Ratings and Football Outsiders to see who should be favored on paper and by how much.
As far as the lines we'll pick from, we'll use Odds Shark's 16 available books to give the best line values available. Combining trends, math and bang-for-your-buck lines—and taking out emotion—is the best way to succeed long term. That's our approach to informing you on this weekend's action.
Record ATS total: 63-69-4
Record ATS last week: 9-4
New Orleans vs. Carolina
1 of 15
The line: Carolina -3.5
The result: Carolina 23, New Orleans 20
Depending on when you got this line, the favorite was either the Carolina Panthers at home by 3 or 3.5 points. That means if you took Carolina, at best you pushed, and at worst you had a brutal loss of a bet by a half-point.
Thursday Night Football featured a near-collapse as the Panthers entered the fourth quarter with a 23-3 lead, gave up 17 unanswered points and were 43 yards short of giving up a go-ahead touchdown. Carolina's playoff hopes stay alive with a 4-6 record, even if it's just a slim chance of advancing to the playoffs.
The team's three wins in its last four games provide a small glimmer of hope moving forward. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints have lost two straight to position themselves at the bottom of the NFC South with the Panthers.
The biggest story coming out of this game, though, may be the loss of Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly, who was evaluated for a concussion late on Thursday night, per Chris Wesseling of NFL.com.
Cover: New Orleans
Arizona vs. Minnesota
2 of 15
Best home line: Minnesota +1
Best away line: Arizona +2.5
Over the last two years, according to TeamRankings.com, the Minnesota Vikings have posted a record of 19-7 against the spread, including a 10-3 record at home. During the same time span, despite a 17-7-1 straight-up record, the Arizona Cardinals have just a 12-15 record against the spread.
The Vikings have lost four straight games after starting 5-4, but three of those games were on the road and the other was an overtime loss. Last week, the Cardinals, who were 3-4-1 heading into the week, struggled to put away the now 1-8 San Francisco 49ers.
As long as this game is within one point in either direction, a virtual pick'em, you'd be foolish not to side with the Vikings here. Football Outsiders' DVOA, FiveThirtyEight's Elo projection and the Massey Ratings all agree.
When you have trends, math and logic in your corner, it's hard not to come out with a win more often than not.
The pick: Minnesota +1
Chicago vs. New York Giants
3 of 15
Best home line: New York Giants -6.5
Best away line: Chicago +9
The Chicago Bears are 2-7 straight up and against the spread this year, which ties them for the third- and second-worst marks, respectively, in the NFL. In terms of margin of victory, they are 30th in the NFL with a minus-8.2 mark, and they're the worst in the league in margin of victory against the spread, according to TeamRankings.com.
Since 2012, the New York Giants have finished lower than .500 as home favorites against the spread for a season only once. This is the story of a team that does well against the spread at home going up against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
That combination resulting in a one-score line can be deadly. FiveThirtyEight believes the Giants should be over the key number of seven, while the Massey Ratings project New York's line to be 10 points and a hook.
The pick: New York Giants -6.5
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
4 of 15
Best home line: Indianapolis -2.5
Best away line: Tennessee +3
Who is the better team in this game? Honestly, that's the only question you need to ask.
Football Outsiders' DVOA numbers say it's Tennessee. FiveThirtyEight's number say it's Indianapolis. The Massey Ratings say it's about even.
In a tight divisional game, with two teams with potentially suspect defenses, give me the team getting the points. It's that simple.
The pick: Tennessee +3
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
5 of 15
Best home line: Cleveland +9.5
Best away line: Pittsburgh -7.5
Since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury, the Pittsburgh Steelers have underperformed against the spread by 18.5 points in two games that were both losses straight up and against the spread.
This line isn't hard to figure out. The Cleveland Browns are 0-10 with a 2-8 record against the spread, per TeamRankings.com, and they'll be going up against a brand that the public generally trusts.
A 9.5-point line for a home underdog reflects to a 15.5 line if this game were in Pittsburgh, though. To win this bet, you have to assume an NFL team is going to lose by double digits at home.
A team on a 0-4 stretch has the public thinking that they will win a divisional road game by multiple scores. Really sit back and think about what you're doing here.
The pick: Cleveland +9.5
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
6 of 15
Best home line: Kansas City -7
Best away line: Tampa Bay +9
In Andy Reid's last 19 regular-season games, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 17-2 record. Of Tampa Bay's 15 losses in the Jameis Winston era, 10 of them have come by multiple scores.
In the Massey Ratings projections, Kansas City has value in this line, and it states that the Buccaneers should score around 17 points. Of the 12 games that the Chiefs have held opponents to 17 points or fewer during their 19-game stretch, eight of them have resulted in two-score victories.
FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating goes as far as to state that Kansas City should be 11.5-point favorites in this game. Per TeamRankings.com, the Chiefs have the second-best margin of victory and margin of victory against the spread in the NFL as favorites this year.
Everyone wants to talk about the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys as contenders for the Super Bowl this year, but the monkey wrench in the AFC just may be Reid's consistent, quietly impressive Kansas City team.
The pick: Kansas City -7
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
7 of 15
Best home line: Cincinnati -2.5
Best away line: Buffalo +4.5
In terms of margin of victory, the Buffalo Bills rank eighth in the league this year. Per TeamRankings.com, Buffalo has the third-best margin above the spread in the NFL.
No matter how you spin the Cincinnati Bengals' performance against the spread, though, they are in the bottom third in the league against the spread, in terms of margin of victory and margin of victory against the spread. For whatever reason, the Bengals, who have just three wins heading into Week 11, are still living off their 12-4 record in 2015 when it comes to handicapping.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Bills are the ninth-best team in the league, while the Bengals are the 17th-ranked team. Still, Cincinnati is getting more than just a home-field advantage in this line.
Per FiveThirtyEight's numbers, Buffalo is getting three points of value here. Per Massey Ratings' number, Buffalo is getting five points of value here.
Since the five-day opening stretch of the season when the Bills lost two one-score games, here's what Buffalo's season has looked like with a healthy LeSean McCoy, a top-five running back in the league:
- 33-18 win against Arizona.
- 16-0 win in New England.
- 30-19 win in Los Angeles.
- 45-16 win against San Francisco.
- 25-31 loss in Seattle.
The Bengals' 3-6-1 record is much closer to their level of play throughout 2016 than the Bills' 4-5 mark. With McCoy, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the league, and they will be coming into this game with an extra week of rest.
The pick: Buffalo +4.5
Baltimore vs. Dallas
8 of 15
Best home line: Dallas -7
Best away line: Baltimore +7.5
The best thing that the Baltimore Ravens do is limit explosive passing plays. Unfortunately for them, the Dallas Cowboys may have the best offense in the league that doesn't rely on such efforts.
No, Dallas' offense, which according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric is the second-best in the league, is based off their offensive line play. How can we measure what the Ravens defense may look like against the Cowboys offense? You can't. There isn't another offensive line like Dallas' on Earth.
What we do know, though, is that the Cowboys have covered every single game that they've played in starting with Week 2 this season, and their one loss against the spread was when they were one-point favorites over the New York Giants and lost by a single point.
As a favorite, according to TeamRankings.com, they have the second-best cover percentage in the league. Per the same site, they are covering the spread by an average of 6.1 points, by far the best mark in the NFL, as favorites.
In terms of pure margin of victory as favorites, they lead the league with a 10.2-point average.
Here's what Baltimore has done this year:
- Won three straight one-score games against the Bills, Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined record of 6-22.
- Lost four straight to the Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins and both New York teams.
- Came out of a bye week to beat a recovering Roethlisberger and the now 0-10 Cleveland Browns.
This team doesn't have a single impressive win on its resume, and we're to assume it can keep within one score of the team with the best record in the NFL while other teams, notably the Patriots, get all of the benefit of the doubt in Vegas? Don't play yourself.
The pick: Dallas -7
Jacksonville vs. Detroit
9 of 15
Best home line: Detroit -6.5
Best away line: Jacksonville +7
Since the Jaguars drafted Blake Bortles with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, they have played 20 road games. In that situation, they have a 2-18 straight-up record.
Jacksonville's two wins on the road came against Baltimore last year, when it saw time extended on a penalty to kick a game-winning field goal, and against Chicago this year, a one-point win over a now 2-7 team. Gus Bradley's teams are historically horrible on the road, and assuming that they cover any single-score spread against any NFL team should be met with immediate skepticism.
In 39 games as a professional quarterback, Bortles has thrown a total of 62 touchdowns and 46 interceptions. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford has thrown 37 passing touchdowns and just seven interceptions in the 17 games since Jim Bob Cooter's offense began roaring after the Lions' 2015 bye week.
In a one-score game, you can either choose a horrid road team that typically finds itself on the road early, or one of the hottest teams and quarterbacks in the NFL over the last calendar year. Quietly, the Lions are 11-4 during that current Stafford hot streak.
Don't lose sight of fading Bradley while we still have a chance to bet against him as a head coach on the road.
The pick: Detroit -6.5
Miami vs. Los Angeles
10 of 15
Best home line: Los Angeles +2
Best away line: Miami +1
He's free! First overall pick Jared Goff will make his first start this week against the Miami Dolphins.
The Los Angeles Rams have to assume that Goff is a better option than Case Keenum at this point, even out of the gate. There's no other way that this move makes sense.
Everyone in the organization, just a half-year into the Los Angeles move, has stable job security. Head coach Jeff Fisher didn't need to burn Goff's redshirt year, but he elected to anyway. That's telling.
What's also telling is how few points the Rams have scored at home this year. In 2016, they have only posted 48 points as a home team, which averages out to 12 points a game.
To put that into perspective, 26 of the remaining 31 teams in the NFL have scored more than double Los Angeles' home total this year. Both the Massey Ratings and FiveThirtyEight have the Rams listed as a home favorite this week, even though some lines list the Dolphins as the book's favorite.
If Goff can make any improvement to the league's worst home offense, he's going to earn his keep as a starter for the remainder of the season, and Los Angeles becomes a sneaky value pick down the line because of the strength of its defense.
The pick: Los Angeles +2
New England vs. San Francisco
11 of 15
Best home line: San Francisco +14.5
Best away line: New England -13
The Patriots are three-score favorites on the road. If this game were in New England, the Patriots would be 20.5-point favorites, if you take into account for a three-point swing for home-field advantage both ways.
A 20.5-point line would be one of the 10 largest lines in NFL history. This line is 4.5 points higher than some of the lines for New England at Cleveland, a now 0-10 team.
Bite the bullet.
The pick: San Francisco +14.5
Philadelphia vs. Seattle
12 of 15
Best home line: Seattle -6
Best away line: Philadelphia +7
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who has been battling with a knee issue for a majority of the season, didn't score a touchdown for a month leading up to the Buffalo game two weeks ago. Since then, he's thrown for five touchdowns and rushed for another while avoiding an interception.
Whatever definition you have for "back," Wilson looks "back." The Seahawks are 22-14-1 against the spread as home favorites under Wilson, well above average, according to TeamRankings.com.
The Seahawks have also never had a season in which they have finished under .500 against the spread as home favorites. This is a one-score line. This is easy.
The pick: Seattle -6
Green Bay vs. Washington
13 of 15
Best home line: Washington -2.5
Best away line: Green Bay +3
Against teams with a losing record, Kirk Cousins' Redskins have a 9-4-1 record straight up. This line is the Redskins as 2.5-point favorites, meaning that the 4-5 Green Bay Packers should be favorites on a neutral field.
Football Outsiders' DVOA metric has Washington as the ninth-best team in the NFL, while the Packers are ranked 17th. FiveThirtyEight and the Massey Ratings both have the Redskins as the better team on a neutral field, too.
This line is broken. Washington should be at least a three-point favorite here, and getting a short home favorite provides huge value if you can cover with a field goal. This one is one of the easiest decisions of the week.
At the end of Sunday Night Football, we may be asking which head coach is going to be making a top-10 selection for the Packers next offseason.
The pick: Washington -2.5
Houston vs. Oakland
14 of 15
Best Oakland line: Oakland -5.5
Best Houston line: Houston +7
Monday Night Football is taking a trip to Mexico City for this Houston-Oakland matchup. With that in mind, why are the Raiders six-point favorites on a neutral field?
If this game were in Oakland, that means this team would be a nine-point favorite, even though it hasn't been more than four-point favorites all year, per TeamRankings.com. The Raiders' only two lines over a field goal led to them not covering.
In terms of win percentage, no team with Oakland's record or better has as bad of an average margin of victory as the Raiders, other than the Redskins. The same can be said about their average margin of victory against the spread.
The pick: Houston +7
Locks of the Week
15 of 15
1. Buffalo +4.5 vs. Cincinnati
2. Jacksonville vs. Detroit -6.5
3. Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City -7
4. Arizona vs. Minnesota +1
5. New England vs. San Francisco +14.5
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