World Series 2016 Odds: Breaking Down the Chances of All 8 Remaining Teams
If the remaining MLB playoff teams were a Quentin Tarantino flick, they might be called The Grateful Eight.
OK, that's unfair. "Grateful" implies an element of luck. And while there's some good fortune in every postseason run, all of these clubs deserve to be where they are.
They earned it over a 162-game slog and, in the case of the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, the high-pressure crucible of the one-and-done Wild Card Game.
Now, with the division series matchups set, we can parse the odds of each contender winning 11 more games, achieving World Series glory and bathing in confetti and champagne.
We'll consider stats, naturally, as well as health, history and a dollop of old-fashioned gut feeling.
Feel free to weigh in with your own odds in the comments, and proceed when ready.
San Francisco Giants (87-75, 2nd NL Wild Card)
1 of 8
It's tempting to talk about even years and the unstoppable force that is Madison Bumgarner and to place the Giants atop this list.
Honestly, it wouldn't be a bad call.
But even after their inspiring 3-0 victory over the New York Mets in the National League Wild Card Game on Wednesday, the Giants are undeniable underdogs.
They'll face the juggernaut Chicago Cubs in the division series. And they likely won't be able to use Bumgarner again until Game 3.
San Francisco also has Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore in its rotation. But the Giants bullpen was a liability for much of the season, with Santiago Casilla losing the closer role amid an avalanche of blown saves.
The offense, meanwhile, scored the fewest runs of any playoff team other than the vanquished Mets.
Numerical superstition is on San Francisco's side. But the Cubs are a deeper, better team. It's head versus heart. We're going with head.
Your results may vary.
Odds: 12-1
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73, 1st AL Wild Card)
2 of 8
If momentum is a thing, the Blue Jays have it.
That's thanks to Edwin Encarnacion, who clubbed a walk-off, three-run homer Tuesday in the bottom of the 11th inning of the American League Wild Card Game against the Baltimore Orioles.
It sent the already raucous Rogers Centre crowd into delirium—and it sent the Jays on to a division series date with the Texas Rangers.
There's less-than-good blood between Texas and Toronto, dating back to last year's ALDS and Jose Bautista's bat-flipping antics. Then, of course, there was the fateful meeting between Bautista's jaw and Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor's fist.
Expect some fireworks. Don't be surprised if the benches clear.
But we're not here to talk about bat flips and right hooks. We're talking about the Jays' chances of bringing the first Commissioner's Trophy north of the border since 1993.
Toronto isn't the offensive juggernaut it was last season, when the club led MLB in almost every meaningful statistical category.
Encarnacion clubbed 42 homers in the regular season and tied for the AL lead with 127 RBI. Third baseman Josh Donaldson followed up his MVP campaign with 37 homers and a .953 OPS.
In all, eight Jays hitters finished with double-digit home run totals; this is a lineup that can hurt you top to bottom.
Toronto doesn't have an elite ace, but the rotation is deep and balanced. Aaron Sanchez, who won the AL ERA crown with a 3.00 mark, is joined by 20-game winner J.A. Happ, changeup artist Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman, who threw six solid innings in the Wild Card Game.
Toronto starters were especially good down the stretch, posting an MLB-best 2.08 ERA in the season's final 21 games.
The bullpen is where things get a little dicier, especially with questions surrounding the health of closer Roberto Osuna.
Osuna exited during the 10th inning of the Wild Card Game with shoulder discomfort. He's expected to be ready for the ALDS, per Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. But until the 21-year-old right-hander throws again pain-free, Jays fans can be forgiven for holding their breath.
Overall, Toronto's pen posted a 4.11 ERA, No. 22 in the majors, so the loss of Osuna would be a devastating blow.
Make no mistake, though: With a potent lineup, well-stocked rotation and some walk-off momentum at their backs, these Jays are legit.
Odds: 11-1
Cleveland Indians (94-67, AL Central Champions)
3 of 8
For much of the season, the Cleveland Indians were a sexy pick to win the wide-open American League. Now, with their starting rotation crippled by injuries, they may not make it out of the division series.
Carlos Carrasco is shelved until next year with a fractured finger on his pitching hand, and Danny Salazar was left off the ALDS roster as he continues to recover from a forearm strain.
As CBSSports.com's Mike Axisa succinctly opined, "Few teams can survive losing two of their three best starters."
The Indians still have home-field advantage for their ALDS matchup with the Boston Red Sox, and they raked at Progressive Field this season. They've also got a stout bullpen, anchored by trade-deadline acquisition Andrew Miller.
Sophomore shortstop Francisco Lindor could make this his October coming-out party. And veterans such as first baseman Mike Napoli and second baseman Jason Kipnis could leave their mark.
With Carrasco and Salazar out, however, and ace Corey Kluber nursing a balky quad, the Indians may not be equipped for a deep run.
Odds: 9-1
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Washington Nationals (95-67, NL East Champions)
4 of 8
Like Cleveland, the Washington Nationals have been handicapped by injuries.
All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos is out for the season with a busted ACL. Co-ace Stephen Strasburg will miss at least the NLDS with an iffy elbow.
Meanwhile, second baseman Daniel Murphy is battling a strained glute. And right fielder Bryce Harper dealt with a late-season thumb issue.
Still, Washington is dangerous.
Assuming Harper and Murphy can go, the Nats bring an offensive attack that scored the fourth-most runs in the NL. Speedy rookie Trea Turner, in particular, looks like a candidate for a breakout postseason.
Even without Strasburg, the rotation features MLB strikeout leader Max Scherzer, as well as Tanner Roark (2.83 ERA in 210 innings).
The bullpen, meanwhile, boasted the second-best ERA in the game and is anchored by closer and trade-deadline cavalry Mark Melancon.
If the Nationals can survive their division series battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers and get Strasburg back for the subsequent rounds, there could be hope in the nation's capital.
Right now, though, injuries look like the club's most probable undoing.
Odds: 9-1
Texas Rangers (95-67, AL West Champions)
5 of 8
If you want to cast aspersions on the Rangers, just mention their pedestrian plus-eight regular-season run differential, easily the worst among postseason qualifiers.
At the same time, Texas has a solid offensive attack that tied for sixth in the AL with a .755 OPS.
And the Rangers have a pair of aces in left-hander Cole Hamels and righty Yu Darvish, the type of dynamic duo that has torn through October before.
"I can't remember having two aces like this," veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre said of the Hamels/Darvish combo, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. "It gives you more confidence. It makes you more relaxed. You know you don't have to score a bunch of runs to win, and you know they have the ability to shut down any lineup in baseball."
The bullpen, too, is coming on at the right time and reeled off a 35.1-inning scoreless streak down the stretch.
The back end of the rotation, featuring Colby Lewis (6.38 second-half ERA) and Martin Perez (5.04 second-half ERA) is a potential liability.
Emotions will run high in Texas' ALDS clash with Toronto. If the Rangers can survive that series, they'll have to make sure they have something left for the subsequent rounds.
Odds: 7-1
Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71, NL West Champions)
6 of 8
Once again, Clayton Kershaw will stare down his postseason demons.
It seems absurd, but the three-time NL Cy Young Award winner and one-time NL MVP owns a 2-6 record and 4.59 ERA in 64.2 playoff innings.
After missing more than two months with a herniated disk, he returned to the Dodgers rotation and threw like his old, transcendent self in five September/October starts.
Now, he'll join trade-deadline pickup Rich Hill and Japanese import Kenta Maeda atop a Los Angeles rotation that should dominate in theory. And they're backed by a bullpen that put up an MLB-leading 3.35 ERA.
The offense scored the fifth-most runs in baseball after the All-Star break and benefited from the return of mercurial outfielder Yasiel Puig from a minor league demotion.
All-Star shortstop and presumptive NL Rookie of the Year winner Corey Seager is another bust-out name to watch.
The Dodgers have now won four straight NL West titles but have failed to advance past the NLCS.
If Kershaw can prove his playoff struggles are a sample-size mirage and the pen and hitters hold up their end of the bargain, this could be the year L.A. breaks its 28-year title drought.
Odds: 6-1
Boston Red Sox (93-69, AL East Champions)
7 of 8
The Red Sox are trying to give David Ortiz the ultimate sendoff in his swan-song season. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but the odds are looking pretty good.
It begins with the Boston offense, which led baseball in runs scored (878), batting average (.282) and OPS (.810).
Ortiz cracked 38 home runs and tied for the AL lead with 127 RBI, and he's joined by right fielder and MVP candidate Mookie Betts, resurgent second baseman Dustin Pedroia, All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts and a cast of other contributors.
There are questions surrounding left-hander David Price, the team's big winter addition, who owns a 5.12 career postseason ERA.
In the bullpen, closer Craig Kimbrel coughed up six earned runs in three innings over his final four appearances.
In all, Boston lost five of its final six games and will not have home-field advantage in any round except the World Series (assuming it makes it there).
Still, with that offense and a rotation topped by Price and 22-game winner Rick Porcello, Boston is the favorite in a noisy, muddled Junior Circuit.
Odds: 5-1
Chicago Cubs (103-58, NL Central Champions)
8 of 8
Here we go.
The Chicago Cubs haven't won the World Series since 1908, which would be the most mind-melting fact in the universe if you hadn't heard it 1,000 times in the last three days.
The Cubs are also the best team in baseball, which is just a fact.
They finished with the best ERA in the game at 3.15. They ranked second in the NL in runs (808) and OPS (.772) behind the altitude-aided Colorado Rockies.
They have a stacked lineup built around NL MVP hopeful Kris Bryant, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Addison Russell, jack-of-all-trades Ben Zobrist, etc.
They have a rotation led by Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester, the game's top two ERA finishers, with reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta tossed in for good measure.
And their bullpen is fronted by trade-deadline rental Aroldis Chapman and his triple-digit heater.
This is as close to a complete team as you'll find in the 2016 playoffs. They're still the Cubs, so mutter about billy goats if you must.
But this feels like the year the North Side could finally erupt in a celebration that's 100-plus years in the making.
Here we go.
Odds: 4-1
All statistics current as of Thursday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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