Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos (4-0) are one of just three unbeaten teams left in the NFL and will try to stop the league's highest-scoring team in the Atlanta Falcons (3-1) on Sunday, as solid home chalk. The Broncos saw starting quarterback Trevor Siemian go down with a shoulder injury last week in a 27-7 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he is still expected to start against the Falcons.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-17.7 Broncos. (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta's offense looks almost unstoppable right now behind quarterback Matt Ryan, who leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,473. During last week's 48-33 win over the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers, as three-point home underdogs, wide receiver Julio Jones had 188 receiving yards on 10 catches before erupting for 300 yards on 12 receptions and a touchdown.

Ryan has spread the ball out well so far, making it difficult to stop just one player. Now the team looks to upset the defending Super Bowl champs, who are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven as home favorites.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Defense wins championships—as we saw in the Super Bowl—and is one of the main reasons Denver is still undefeated heading into Week 5. Siemian is another, and his presence in the huddle has made the Broncos forget about Peyton Manning for the time being. While Manning's leadership is undoubtedly missed, Siemian's youth has given new life to the offense, which is why it is such a relief that his injury was not more serious.

After leading Denver to a pair of road wins the previous two weeks, Siemian would be happy to know his team is 11-0 straight up in its last 11 games after playing consecutive games away from home, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Smart pick

It's hard to say which team has more momentum right now because Atlanta has been equally impressive in winning three straight since suffering a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay at home. That being said, the Broncos will not want to get into a shootout here, so look for a lower-scoring game than expected. The under has cashed in 10 of 14 road games for the Falcons and four straight for Denver versus winning teams.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.

The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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