New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The bad news for the New England Patriots (3-1) is that they are coming off their first loss of the season following a 3-0 start.

The good news is that the Patriots are taking on the winless Cleveland Browns (0-4) on Sunday as double-digit-point chalk, with starting quarterback Tom Brady set to make his 2016 debut following his four-game suspension for his role in Deflategate.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites. The total was 47 early in the week.

Odds Shark computer pick: Patriots 28.4, Browns 16.5 (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Despite the fact that New England looked like the best team in the NFL over the first three weeks without Brady, it should come as no surprise that Bill Belichick's bunch lost a game with a third-string rookie quarterback dealing with a thumb injury.

Nobody predicted the Patriots would be 4-0 heading into this game, although the Buffalo Bills were probably the unlikeliest of their first four opponents to beat them.

With that said, Brady's mere presence and extra motivation should be all New England needs to cover.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns continue to be competitive at times in their losses and could easily be coming into this game having covered the spread in three straight. However, some bad breaks and untimely scores by their opponents have helped contribute to a 1-3 mark against the spread to go along with their four straight-up losses.

Cleveland could have packed it in against the Washington Redskins last week in a 31-20 loss but instead fought back from an early 14-0 deficit to take the lead 20-17 entering the fourth quarter.

Smart pick

The Patriots have won five of their past six meetings with Cleveland, and the Browns are just 2-10 ATS in their previous 12 games as underdogs, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. New England will be fired up for Brady's return, and he will torch Cleveland en route to an easy win and cover.

Betting trends

• The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Browns.
• The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
• The Patriots are 42-8 SU in their last 50 games after a loss.

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.