NFL Week 5 Picks: Early Odds Tips, Spreads and Predictions for Latest Schedule
Another week of NFL action is almost in the books. Believe it or not, nearly a month of the 2016 season has already passed.
What have we learned over the first four weeks of the 2016 season? Well, for starters, we've learned that the Denver Broncos are still a dominant (and undefeated) football team. We've learned that the 3-1 New England Patriots can survive for a stretch without star quarterback Tom Brady. We've also learned that the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is as good as any in the league when at full strength.
Some of the things we've learned, however, have been a bit more surprising. Few probably predicted that running backs like Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Ameer Abdullah and Jonathan Stewart would all be injured already. Even fewer likely predicted that both the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals would be sitting at 1-3 in early October.
The surprises have come weekly, which shouldn't be totally surprising considering we're still learning which teams are great, which are terrible and which fall somewhere in between.
We're going to take what we've learned and apply it to the upcoming slate of Week 5 games. We'll be looking at all the games and their early odds—as provided by Odds Shark—and making predictions for each. We'll also be taking a closer look at some notable matchups.
| Date | Game | Early Line | National TV | Prediction |
| Thur. 10/6 | Arizona at San Francisco | No Line | CBS/NFL Network | 24-17 ARI |
| Sun. 10/9 | Tennessee at Miami | MIA -3.5 | CBS | 23-20 TEN |
| Sun. 10/9 | Washington at Baltimore | BAL -4 | Fox | 30-24 BAL |
| Sun. 10/9 | Chicago at Indianapolis | IND -4.5 | Fox | 31-27 IND |
| Sun. 10/9 | NY Jets at Pittsburgh | PIT -7 | CBS | 31-21 PIT |
| Sun. 10/9 | Houston at Minnesota | MIN -6 | CBS | 24-16 MIN |
| Sun. 10/9 | New England at Cleveland | NE -10 | CBS | 34-20 NE |
| Sun. 10/9 | Philadelphia at Detroit | PHI -1 | Fox | 34-28 PHI |
| Sun. 10/9 | Atlanta at Denver | DEN -6.5 | Fox | 33-30 DEN |
| Sun. 10/9 | Buffalo at Los Angeles | LA -3 | CBS | 23-20 LA |
| Sun. 10/9 | San Diego at Oakland | OAK -3.5 | CBS | 38-34 OAK |
| Sun. 10/9 | Cincinnati at Dallas | DAL -1.5 | CBS | 28-23 CIN |
| Sun. 10/9 | NY Giants at Green Bay | GB -7 | NBC | 27-24 GB |
| Mon. 10/10 | Tampa Bay at Carolina | No Line | ESPN | 28-26 CAR |
Matchups to Watch
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
The New York Jets and the Steelers appear to be teams moving in opposite directions. The Steelers made the playoffs as a banged-up team in 2015, while the Jets finished at 10-6 and barely missed out.
The Steelers, though, are looking like they can be legitimate title contenders this season if healthy. The Jets—and especially quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick—are looking like 2015 was a bit of a fluke.
Fitzpatrick has tossed an incredible nine interceptions over the past two weeks, and the Jets have gone on to lose by a combined 31 points during that span. The Jets, though, claim they're standing by Fitzpatrick, even if he is costing the team.
"I don't worry about questions about his play, I just worry about turnovers," Jets head coach Todd Bowles said, per Rich Cimini of ESPN.com. "He knows he can't have turnovers. Some of them are unfortunate and not the quarterback's fault, but nevertheless the quarterback runs the offense, so he can't turn the ball over. We have to get better there."
If Fitzpatrick cannot get his turnover issue fixed right now, the Jets' playoff hopes could be dead in the water. The Steelers defense isn't exactly elite, but the offense might be. Ben Roethlisberger just rocked the Kansas City Chiefs for five passing touchdowns during Sunday's 43-14 shellacking.
If the Jets lose the turnover battle in Week 5, there's virtually no chance they keep pace with the Steelers at Heinz Field. As Ralph Vacchiano of SportsNet New York recently pointed out, most of Fitzpatrick's picks have come late in games:
The season might be on the line for the Jets, but we're not so sure Fitzpatrick suddenly learns the meaning of ball security.
Prediction: 31-21 Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
At first glance, it seems a bit odd that the 1-3 Detroit Lions are just one-point underdogs against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5. Of course, the Eagles are starting a rookie signal-caller, and the Lions will have home-field advantage.
Actually, no. It does seem odd to see the Eagles only giving up a point.
Eagles rookie Carson Wentz has been playing incredibly well this season. He has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 769 yards and five scores, and he still doesn't have a turnover on his resume.
Wentz is supported by an Eagles defense that is more than serviceable, even if it isn't elite. Pro Football Focus rated Philadelphia 12th in overall defense through the season so far.
It is worth noting that the Eagles are on the road here, but they were on the road against the Chicago Bears in Week 2. Philadelphia handily won that game 29-14. The Lions just lost to the Bears 17-14.
This game is essentially a pick'em, and we're picking Philadelphia.
Prediction: 34-28 Philadelphia
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are giving up a pretty sizable points cushion in Week 5 against the New York Giants, and we're not sure it's merited. Yes, the Packers will be coming off a bye week and will be playing at home, but it's not as if Green Bay has been a dominant team this season.
Aaron Rodgers and Co. still seem to be trying to find their groove on offense. While it probably seems strange to read aloud, the Packers are ranked a miserable 29th in the NFL in terms of passing yardage and total yardage.
Right now, Green Bay is averaging just 293.7 yards per game and 193.3 yards per game through the air. This means the Packers haven't even been moving the ball as well as the lowly Cleveland Browns.
The Giants, meanwhile, are ranked third in passing offense (297.7 yards per game) and second in total offense (396.7 yards per game). If this game gets even close to resembling a shootout, the Packers could be in trouble.
Pro Football Focus rates Green Bay just 27th in pass coverage.
What could really cause problems is the fact that New York's revamped defensive front has been strong against the run thus far. The Giants are allowing an average of just 77.3 rushing yards per contest. This means it probably won't be easy for the Packers to lean on their running game if the passing woes continue.
In reality, this could turn into a bit of a defensive struggle, and we're not sure Green Bay ever gets the chance to jump out to a big lead.
A week off and home-field advantage might well help the Packers get the win, but we're not so sure the team wins by a touchdown.
Prediction: 27-24 Green Bay
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