Week 4 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Those bettors who aren't in love with the idea of an upset might shy away from Week 4 NFL lines.

Upset after upset plagued the Week 3 odds out of Las Vegas. The Minnesota Vikings took down the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants fell to the Washington Redskins, the Philadelphia Eagles walloped the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons upset the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

The trend one weekend ago might have proved fruitful for many bettors, too. Those who are worried about games becoming more unpredictable than ever shouldn't fret much, though, as the league realigns itself early on every year.

An early look at Week 4 suggests a return to normalcy, so long as bettors apply the lessons learned a week ago.

NFL Week 4 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Miami at Cincinnati (TNF)	CIN -7	44.5	CIN 28-20
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	JAC -2.5	49.5	IND 23-20
Buffalo at New England	NE -4	n/a	NE 21-20
Seattle at N.Y. Jets	SEA -3.5	40.5	NYJ 24-20
Detroit at Chicago	DET -2	46.5	DET 33-20
Carolina at Atlanta	CAR -3	46	CAR 28-24
Oakland at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	46.5	BAL 20-17
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -4.5	40.5	HOU 21-17
Cleveland at Washington	WAS -6.5	45.5	WAS 30-18
Denver at Tampa Bay	DEN -3.5	44.5	DEN 27-17
L.A. Rams at Arizona	ARI -8.5	43	ARI 23-14
New Orleans at San Diego	SD -4	52	SD 28-23
Dallas at San Francisco	E	44	DAL 20-14
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -4	47.5	PIT 27-20
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (MNF)	MIN -3.5	43.5	MIN 24-21

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Miami at Cincinnati (-7)

Week 4 starts off with a soft floater over the plate.

The Cincinnati Bengals get to welcome the Miami Dolphins to town on Thursday Night Football in a predictable affair. The visitors have won a single game this year and needed overtime to do so—against the Cleveland Browns.

Cincinnati hasn't looked great by any means but remains leagues ahead of Miami. The Bengals haven't had linebacker Vontaze Burfict or tight end Tyler Eifert, so losses to Pittsburgh and Denver over a brutal stretch to start the season aren't that shocking.

The Bengals have felt Burfict's absence in a big way, but Miami isn't much of a test. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown five touchdowns to four picks, and the offense has gotten all of 16 carries from Arian Foster. The quarterback happens to lead the team in rushing.

Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post painted a dire picture for the Dolphins:

With the Cincinnati rushing attack improving—registering 143 yards and two scores against Denver's defense—and Burfict set to return, the home team shouldn't have many problems helping bettors recoup losses from last week.

Prediction: Bengals 28-20 

Denver (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

This is an interesting line because one can almost hear the gears turning as someone analyzes it—the Denver Broncos have to travel far to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so it could provide upset material.

Don't count on it.

Let's review last week for both sides. Tampa Bay had a winnable game at home against the Los Angeles Rams and wound up surrendering 37 points to a Case Keenum-led offense in a loss.

Denver, on the other hand, took down Cincinnati on the road as Trevor Siemian tossed four touchdowns. It was a notable performance, to say the least, as the team captured:

The Broncos haven't had much in the way of trouble thanks to a strong returning defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. Playing against Cam Newton and Andrew Luck before visiting the Bengals makes that all the more impressive.

Denver's ground game has helped uplift Siemian in a big way, with the offense having totaled 334 yards and three scores.

Tampa Bay was one of those interesting teams before the season, as it was easy to see things going in either direction. Now it looks south, with the defense a mess, Jameis Winston sitting on eight touchdowns to six interceptions and Doug Martin hurt.

If Carolina, Indianapolis and Cincinnati couldn't post north of 20 points on Denver, a turnover-prone Tampa Bay offense that boasts 3.6 yard per carry won't either.

Prediction: Broncos 27-17

New Orleans at San Diego (-4)

There isn't much reason to worry about an upset when the New Orleans Saints and San Diego Chargers get together in Week 4. 

Unlike Denver-Tampa Bay, travel matters in this cross-conference showdown. Not only do the Saints have to travel, but they do so on a short week after taking a 45-32 loss on Monday Night Football to the Atlanta Falcons.

Hesitation around the Chargers makes sense, given that some of the biggest headlines around the team so far this season have concerned season-ending injuries to Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

For shame. The Chargers sit on a 1-2 record but haven't lost a game by more than six points and took the 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs to overtime on the road before a loss. The other defeat came on a last-minute touchdown by Indianapolis.

Quarterback Philip Rivers has looked like his usual self with five touchdowns to no interceptions, while running back Melvin Gordon has looked unstoppable, rushing for 194 yards and four scores.

Down a pair of notable weapons or not, the Chargers won't have many problems moving the ball against the Saints. The New Orleans defense just coughed up 217 rushing yards and three scores on the ground to Atlanta, not to mention 240 yards and a pair of scores through the air.

While this game could be a shootout, the Saints defense is the weak link here. The unit won't stop Gordon from controlling the game coming off a short week. Fantasy owners and those who are looking for a safe favorite to ride can rejoice.

Prediction: Chargers 28-23

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.